JP Spencer
@jpspencer.bsky.social
4.3K followers 1.6K following 460 posts
Director of Devolution Policy, Labour Together. Economist. Author at Future North writing about the North of England (link below). Posts about policy, politics and the Pennines (and beyond). 📍 West Yorkshire. 🧭 futurenorth.substack.com
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jpspencer.bsky.social
Three statements of local ambition stand in Halifax, West Yorkshire: the Town Hall, the Borough Market and the Piece Hall. Such monuments of civic pride still bear the names of farsighted local leaders from past generations.

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Piece Hall in Halifax
jpspencer.bsky.social
£2.7bn of stamp duty receipts in 23-24 came from properties worth more than £1.5m.

SDLT may be a bad tax, but I don’t think a pure tax giveaway to multimillionaire property owners should be a priority.
jpspencer.bsky.social
Guess it depends? For existing homeowners has less impact, but first time buyers with a mortgage will need to take out a bigger one - where relative affordability depends on interest rates?
jpspencer.bsky.social
I annoyingly can’t find the research now but there’s a research paper which suggests something like every 1% cut in Stamp Duty actually leads to a 2% increase in houses prices (due to bigger deposits being leveraged) so cutting it might actually make housing more expensive.
jpspencer.bsky.social
Good question! The Windrush scandal was caused in part by an inability to prove identity so a system that enables that could have helped? Am assuming you disagree though given tone so interested to know why.
jpspencer.bsky.social
As if to confirm the depressing polarisation point, various anonymous accounts have turned up with very strong views and more. Happily making use of Bluesky’s block button for anyone - particularly anonymous accounts - who can’t be civil.
jpspencer.bsky.social
True - but as with the origins of GDS and other tech projects guess they have to start somewhere then scale.
jpspencer.bsky.social
Yes!

"The roll-out will in time make it easier to apply for government and private sector services, such as helping renters to quickly prove their identity to landlords, improving access to welfare and other benefits, and making it easier for parents to apply for free childcare."
Digital ID scheme: explainer
www.gov.uk
Reposted by JP Spencer
jpspencer.bsky.social
Last month, the government published a new Pride in Place Strategy. I was really struck by the graph below.

There is a very clear and worrying link between incomes and social trust in an area.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

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Trust declines as income declines
jpspencer.bsky.social
Been very depressed by the reaction to Digital ID - a discussion which has become very polarised, very quickly.

Other countries use it and it helps them to deliver various public services better - so on balance if done right it is likely to be a good thing as argued in the piece below.
jpspencer.bsky.social
This must be part of a longer term and wider plan to empower places as I argued for in 'Pride and Prosperity' - giving every place the civic power to deliver.

www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

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jpspencer.bsky.social
The government is giving £20m of funding to some of the most disadvantaged areas, underpinned by locally led decisions on what to spend it on, as part of a Pride in Place Programme.

Alongside the powers in the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill, this can make a big difference.

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Pride in Place Programme description
jpspencer.bsky.social
Last month, the government published a new Pride in Place Strategy. I was really struck by the graph below.

There is a very clear and worrying link between incomes and social trust in an area.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

1/3
Trust declines as income declines
Reposted by JP Spencer
handhyorkshire.bsky.social
The National Trust is often thought of as stately homes and historic buildings, but much of its work is about protecting landscapes and wildlife. At Marsden Moor in West Yorkshire, for example, the Trust looks after miles of open moorland, home to curlews, mountain hares, and
At Marsden Moor in West Yorkshire, the NationalTrust looks after miles of open moorland, home to curlews, mountain hares, and rare plants.
Marsden Moor, Jim Grady, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
jpspencer.bsky.social
The shipbuilding boom in Barrow has made Cumbria the second fastest growing part of England in recent years.

Find out more in the short thread below. 👇
jpspencer.bsky.social
A few weeks back, I wrote a post on why Greater Manchester is the fastest growing part of England.

Today, I’ve followed this up by creating a Northern productivity leaderboard and then looking at the second fastest: Cumbria.

futurenorth.substack.com/p/is-cumbria...

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Is Cumbria seeing a resurgence in manufacturing?
And a Northern productivity league table
futurenorth.substack.com
Reposted by JP Spencer
jpspencer.bsky.social
A few weeks back, I wrote a post on why Greater Manchester is the fastest growing part of England.

Today, I’ve followed this up by creating a Northern productivity leaderboard and then looking at the second fastest: Cumbria.

futurenorth.substack.com/p/is-cumbria...

🧵

1/6
Is Cumbria seeing a resurgence in manufacturing?
And a Northern productivity league table
futurenorth.substack.com
jpspencer.bsky.social
Plans to build submarines etc. at Barrow are having a big impact on the Cumbrian economy, providing good jobs and wages. But, if you strip out the shipbuilding subsector then the Cumbrian economy actually shrunk. Specialisation is good, but can it become over-reliance? Views welcome!

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jpspencer.bsky.social
Looking at employment and GVA growth, a crude measure of productivity, manufacturing is an outlier in total size but also the increase in GVA/employment. The data shows that ‘Manufacture of transport equipment’ is key - increasing in real terms from just under £250m to £1.3bn from 2015 to 2023.

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jpspencer.bsky.social
Looking now at Cumbria, I replicated some of the analysis for the GM post – but the result was very different. Whereas GM had seen higher GVA growth across all of its top 10 sectors than the UK average, for Cumbria one sector stood out – manufacturing – as it is the only one growing faster.

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jpspencer.bsky.social
Looking across the North, productivity growth has been mostly above the UK average with some variation between regions. Places with the most established devolution arrangements are all above the UK average - a trend we should continue to monitor.

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jpspencer.bsky.social
A few weeks back, I wrote a post on why Greater Manchester is the fastest growing part of England.

Today, I’ve followed this up by creating a Northern productivity leaderboard and then looking at the second fastest: Cumbria.

futurenorth.substack.com/p/is-cumbria...

🧵

1/6
Is Cumbria seeing a resurgence in manufacturing?
And a Northern productivity league table
futurenorth.substack.com
jpspencer.bsky.social
View from a delayed train in Manchester’s notorious ‘Castlefield Corridor’ - planned investment in Northern Powerhouse Rail must alleviate this bottleneck for the long term.
View of central Manchester