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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · 5d

My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK.
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

Should work restrictions on asylum-seekers in Britain be reformed? | Oct 4th 2025 Edition

Also this week, America’s relations with Israel, the US constitution, cosy crime, the Democrats

www.economist.com

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · 6d

When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic.

Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.

Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.

Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 7d

UK immigration policy is dancing to a Dutch tune after a University of Amsterdam paper made the question an economic issue

UK Immigration Policy Is Dancing to a Dutch Economic Tune

A University of Amsterdam research paper has made the question of migrants a financial issue.

bloom.bg

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Sep 8

My take on yet another change of Home Secretary.

And in defence of the last one.

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Sep 8

Britain has a new Home Secretary - and Shabana Mahmood has been tasked with talking and acting tough on immigration.

In his latest blog, @jtmigratory.bsky.social asks what Mahmood can do compared to her predecessor - and whether this is about real experience, or just a changing of narrative.

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Sep 2

3/
3. Social care visa developments: small window now – in both space and time (until July 2028) – to enter UK social care jobs through graduate route

But other factors may push against. Like the huge recent depreciation of the Nigerian currency.

Can intl students afford the UK?

We shall see.

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Sep 2

2/
1. Relative attraction of UK vs US craziness & uncertainty + Canadian and Australian numerical restrictions - UK graduate visa remains in place & no cap on numbers +

2. Lower tariff unis = increasingly struggling for domestic students; finances of many remain v dependent on intl students

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Sep 2

1/ Start of the HE academic year.

'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?

www.bbc.co.uk

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Aug 29

The Incredibles

Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?

For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The Incredibles: Nigel Farage’s plan to tackle illegal migration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?

Nigel Farage has outlined the details of his plan to tackle illegal immigration to the UK under a Reform government.

www.smf.co.uk

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 24

Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies.

If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...

Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market

is college worth it? and other questions about the state of things

kyla.substack.com

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 24

Today's big UK immigration news.

Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

EU set to demand free NHS healthcare with under-30s travel visas

Despite a broad softer Brexit agreement, the UK still has to hammer out the details with Europe

inews.co.uk

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 23

UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.

Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?

Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware

What's wrong with bliss?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Home Office to share asylum hotel locations with Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats

The agreement is aimed at helping companies identify migrants who are working illegally in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 22

2 - and it keeps getting pushback from BBC Verify who argue - half fairly - the Govt is over-stating its achievement, taking credit for returning people who have left the UK without any intervention by the Govt. This makes the Govt look disingenuous.

Maybe the Govt should rethink this approach?

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 22

1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.

Understandable. But unfortunately:

1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?

A short message testing experiment with UK voters on the party's potential vulnerabilities

persuasionuk.org

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 22

Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 10

4/ 5. The risk though =

- the pilot doesn’t expand any further
- = not large enough to ‘break the model’ of the 'people smugglers'
- has insufficient deterrent effect for the Govt to be able to claim political success on the Channel flows.

And then what ...?

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 10

3/ that = the swift return of all irregular Channel arrivals (save for exceptional cases) in return for taking in asylum claimants from France and/or elsewhere in the EU with a clear connection to the UK.

4. Today’s deal is not that deal, but it’s a start.

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 10

2/ ...has increased pressure on the Govt for tangible progress on Channel returns/migrant swap deal.

3. the best deal = a deal which undermines the incentives and economics of movement across the Channel ...

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 10

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jul 7

conservativehome.com/2025/07/07/j...

Jonathan Thomas: Badenoch’s Lawfare Commission may yet prove a winning strategy on the ECHR | Conservative Home

Perhaps it is because politically the Conservatives now have little to lose that Badenoch can ask important questions about what the protections, impacts and trade-offs inherent in different internati...

conservativehome.com

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jun 27

My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.

And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Jun 27

Thinking on the UK's membership of the ECHR seems to have reached a tipping point.

Senior Fellow @jtmigratory.bsky.social explores the various positions - and questions who is best placed to take on this complex issue.🤔

Read the full blog here: buff.ly/MEXiDzG

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jun 18

Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

For @smfthinktank.bsky.social

Can’t live with it, can’t live without it: the strange case of the Resident Labour Market Test

We’re now beginning to see the full consequences of the absence of the Resident Labour Market Test from the Immigration White Paper.

www.smf.co.uk

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jun 12

That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.

I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.

Social Market Foundation @smfthinktank.bsky.social · Jun 11

@jtmigratory.bsky.social notes that the #SpendingReview's commitment to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels is ultimately hostage to fortune.

Read the SMF's full response below 👇 :
buff.ly/LmtHzD6

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Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jun 4

2 -

Jonathan Thomas @jtmigratory.bsky.social · Jun 4

1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.

www.smf.co.uk

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Reposted by Jonathan Thomas

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · May 29

Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.

As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government

In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

www.smf.co.uk

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Reposted by Jonathan Thomas

Jonathan Kingham @jonkingh.bsky.social · May 29

This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government

In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

www.smf.co.uk

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