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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jul 24

Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jul 24

The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications...
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · Jul 24

There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇

NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jul 24

The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications...
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · Jul 4

Happening now ⬇️

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jun 26

Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

@julianhi.nz

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jun 26

Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

@julianhi.nz

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Dezernat Zukunft @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social · Jun 24

#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung.

📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr

Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...

Form

share-eu1.hsforms.com

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Marco Herack @mh120480.bsky.social · Jun 20

unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen

Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...

mikrooekonomen.de

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jun 18

🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇

Dezernat Zukunft @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social · Jun 17

#Welthandel am Abgrund?

In 8 Tagen diskutieren wir bei Pizza & Getränken mit Handelsökonom Julian Hinz (@kielinstitute) über die Zukunft der #Globalisierung.

📅 25. Juni, 18:30 Uhr
📍 Dezernat Zukunft, Berlin

Jetzt anmelden:
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq... cc @schularick.bsky.social

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · Jun 9

Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation.
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · Jun 3

Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · Jun 3

Oil tankers and Russia's shadow fleet are Putin's Achilles heel. We're doing a @brookings.edu event on the shadow fleet this week to discuss policy options, with a panel discussion that includes @julianhi.nz and a kick-off presentation by @econharris.bsky.social.
www.brookings.edu/events/backi...

Backing Ukraine: What’s next for Russian sanctions?

On June 5, Brookings will host a panel of distinguished scholars to discuss the risks of Russian oil sanctions.

www.brookings.edu

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 23

We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries

Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

kiel.institute

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 23

Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 23

Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 23

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

RETHINK-GSC @rethink-gsc.bsky.social · May 21

📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application.

Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...

#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU

Keynote speaker Andreas Moxnes from the Norwegian Business School stands in front of his presentation while delivering his speech.

RETHINK-GSC researcher Aleksandra Parteka, who is a professor of economics at the Gdańsk University of Technology and the host of the workshop, is gesturing while presenting her research on funding structures and university patenting.

Agnes Kügler, a RETHINK-GSC researcher and a senior economist at the WIFO, points to the formula used in her latest research on the effects of patent litigation and trade, which is displayed on the screen.

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Marco Herack @mh120480.bsky.social · May 20

Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen

Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...

mikrooekonomen.de

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · May 20

📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · May 16

…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏!
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · May 15

Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · May 14

Trump’s 'Liberation Day' marks a retreat from multilateralism. In this joint statement w/ @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social, CAE @cepii-paris.bsky.social the authors call on the EU to respond w/ strategic retaliation, support for EU firms & leadership in defending open trade www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Jaleks @jaleks.bsky.social · May 12

In dieser öffentlichen Vorlesung analysieren zwei Experten für Internationale Volkswirtschaftslehre – Professor Gerald Willmann, Ph.D., und Professor Dr. Julian Hinz (@julianhi.nz) von der Universität #Bielefeld – die wirtschaftlichen Hintergründe und Folgen dieser Entwicklung.

13.05.25, 18:30, H15

Zölle und Unsicherheit: Eine neue Ära des Protektionismus? Auswirkungen auf die globale Wirtschaft

aktuell.uni-bielefeld.de

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 12

PS: To reiterate — the US tariffs are now still about 6x (six!) as high as they were in January. Or if you like big numbers, +500%. This is not a win for the US administration, they reduce their self-induced harm a bit.

Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 12

Bottom line: Tariff pause reduces immediate damage, especially for the US, but uncertainty remains high. More data and scenarios on the Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries

Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

kiel.institute

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 12

Price impacts remain significant: 🇺🇸 US prices now reduced to (!) +4.27% within 1yr, 🇨🇳 China sees -1.51% deflationary pressure. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.38%), 🇪🇺 EU (-0.27%) similar to before. 3/n

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 12

There will be a big catching-up in Chinese exports to the US now — but remember, exports still face +30% tariffs: Within 1 year, we still see 🇨🇳 China’s export drop to US by -19.10%. 2/n

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · May 12

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: US-China 90-day tariff pause provides short-term relief. US real GDP impact improves from -1.6% to -1.29%, and inflation eases to +4.3%. 🇨🇳 China’s real GDP loss shrinks to -0.5%. 🇩🇪 Germany and 🇪🇺 EU hardly move compared to previous situation (-0.22% and -0.14%). 1/n

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