Julius Koschnick
@juliuskoschnick.bsky.social
Assistant professor at the University of Southern Denmark. Economic history. Research topics: Long-run growth, the knowledge economy, education, and innovation
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2512.16587
Did a feedback mechanism between propositional and prescriptive knowledge create modern growth?
What was the origin of modern economic growth? Joel Mokyr has argued that self-sustained modern economic growth originated from a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and prescriptive (ap...
arxiv.org
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2512.16587
In the end, what matters is how we produce, organize, and share knowledge.
That was true in 1700. It’s still true today.
That was true in 1700. It’s still true today.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
In the end, what matters is how we produce, organize, and share knowledge.
That was true in 1700. It’s still true today.
That was true in 1700. It’s still true today.
More broadly, the paper demonstrates how historical text data and modern NLP tools can be combined to study long-run economic change.
This opens up new avenues for research on long-run growth, economic history, and the knowledge economy.
This opens up new avenues for research on long-run growth, economic history, and the knowledge economy.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
More broadly, the paper demonstrates how historical text data and modern NLP tools can be combined to study long-run economic change.
This opens up new avenues for research on long-run growth, economic history, and the knowledge economy.
This opens up new avenues for research on long-run growth, economic history, and the knowledge economy.
Taken together, the results provide strong quantitative support for Mokyr’s feedback-loop hypothesis. The new quantitative evidence is crucial since Mokyr’s work provide us with one of the most influential accounts of the origin of modern economic growth.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Taken together, the results provide strong quantitative support for Mokyr’s feedback-loop hypothesis. The new quantitative evidence is crucial since Mokyr’s work provide us with one of the most influential accounts of the origin of modern economic growth.
Using a difference-in-differences design across technical subfields, I show that exposure to knowledge from the Lexicon technicum led to higher innovation in affected fields over the following decades.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Using a difference-in-differences design across technical subfields, I show that exposure to knowledge from the Lexicon technicum led to higher innovation in affected fields over the following decades.
For causal evidence, I exploit the publication of the Lexicon technicum (1704), the first British scientific encyclopedia, as a shock to access costs to scientific knowledge.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
For causal evidence, I exploit the publication of the Lexicon technicum (1704), the first British scientific encyclopedia, as a shock to access costs to scientific knowledge.
To address this, I run Placebo tests, first with other unrelated fields and then with all other fields - we see that none other fields produce coefficients of the magnitude of propositional and prescriptive knowledge
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
To address this, I run Placebo tests, first with other unrelated fields and then with all other fields - we see that none other fields produce coefficients of the magnitude of propositional and prescriptive knowledge
But what about confounders like language or writing style?
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
But what about confounders like language or writing style?
This timing is not incidental.
It lines up exactly with the Industrial Enlightenment and the onset of sustained modern growth. This is evidence in support of Joel Mokyr’s theory.
It lines up exactly with the Industrial Enlightenment and the onset of sustained modern growth. This is evidence in support of Joel Mokyr’s theory.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
This timing is not incidental.
It lines up exactly with the Industrial Enlightenment and the onset of sustained modern growth. This is evidence in support of Joel Mokyr’s theory.
It lines up exactly with the Industrial Enlightenment and the onset of sustained modern growth. This is evidence in support of Joel Mokyr’s theory.
Before 1700, spillovers between science and technology were neutral or negative.
During the eighteenth century, they flipped - becoming strongly positive by the mid-century.
During the eighteenth century, they flipped - becoming strongly positive by the mid-century.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Before 1700, spillovers between science and technology were neutral or negative.
During the eighteenth century, they flipped - becoming strongly positive by the mid-century.
During the eighteenth century, they flipped - becoming strongly positive by the mid-century.
The results are striking
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The results are striking
And then, I apply these measures to the universe of all titles in England between 1600-1800 (they’re more like short abstracts, with an avg. of 55 words)
Now we can finally estimate what we’re interested. Did spillovers from theory to technology – and vice versa - make titles more innovative?
Now we can finally estimate what we’re interested. Did spillovers from theory to technology – and vice versa - make titles more innovative?
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
And then, I apply these measures to the universe of all titles in England between 1600-1800 (they’re more like short abstracts, with an avg. of 55 words)
Now we can finally estimate what we’re interested. Did spillovers from theory to technology – and vice versa - make titles more innovative?
Now we can finally estimate what we’re interested. Did spillovers from theory to technology – and vice versa - make titles more innovative?
Next, to make sure this method works well, I validate the innovation measure against historical patent citations
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Next, to make sure this method works well, I validate the innovation measure against historical patent citations
Hence, I use a MacBERTh model that was pre-trained on historical text and fine-tune it to 17th+18th century scientific and technological texts specifically
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Hence, I use a MacBERTh model that was pre-trained on historical text and fine-tune it to 17th+18th century scientific and technological texts specifically
To compare titles, I use the embedding space of an LLM. Moreover, to process historical text, I need a model that thinks like a person from history.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
To compare titles, I use the embedding space of an LLM. Moreover, to process historical text, I need a model that thinks like a person from history.
Next, a publication is creating a spillover if it is more similar to the future of another field than to past of that field.
Same measure, but now knowledge is flowing between fields.
Same measure, but now knowledge is flowing between fields.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Next, a publication is creating a spillover if it is more similar to the future of another field than to past of that field.
Same measure, but now knowledge is flowing between fields.
Same measure, but now knowledge is flowing between fields.
The intuition for the new measures is simple.
A publication is innovative if it is more similar to the future of its field than to the past of its field.
If a title anticipates where the field is going, it is a first mover. It is innovative.
A publication is innovative if it is more similar to the future of its field than to the past of its field.
If a title anticipates where the field is going, it is a first mover. It is innovative.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The intuition for the new measures is simple.
A publication is innovative if it is more similar to the future of its field than to the past of its field.
If a title anticipates where the field is going, it is a first mover. It is innovative.
A publication is innovative if it is more similar to the future of its field than to the past of its field.
If a title anticipates where the field is going, it is a first mover. It is innovative.
This paper develops new tools to measure innovation and spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
And this means that we can now, *for the first time*, test Mokyr’s hypothesis – to really know what happened back at the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
And this means that we can now, *for the first time*, test Mokyr’s hypothesis – to really know what happened back at the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
This paper develops new tools to measure innovation and spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
And this means that we can now, *for the first time*, test Mokyr’s hypothesis – to really know what happened back at the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
And this means that we can now, *for the first time*, test Mokyr’s hypothesis – to really know what happened back at the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
This idea is widely influential, but until now, it lacked direct quantitative evidence.
Crucially, that’s because we lacked the tools to measure spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
Crucially, that’s because we lacked the tools to measure spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
This idea is widely influential, but until now, it lacked direct quantitative evidence.
Crucially, that’s because we lacked the tools to measure spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
Crucially, that’s because we lacked the tools to measure spillovers in the historical knowledge economy.
Let’s start: Mokyr’s famously argues that a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and (prescriptive) knowledge created the engine for modern growth. Below you find it an illustration by the Nobel committee:
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Let’s start: Mokyr’s famously argues that a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and (prescriptive) knowledge created the engine for modern growth. Below you find it an illustration by the Nobel committee:
📄 Paper link: arxiv.org/abs/2512.16587
Did a feedback mechanism between propositional and prescriptive knowledge create modern growth?
What was the origin of modern economic growth? Joel Mokyr has argued that self-sustained modern economic growth originated from a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and prescriptive (ap...
arxiv.org
December 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
📄 Paper link: arxiv.org/abs/2512.16587
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