JɄ₴₮ł₦ ɄⱠ฿Ɽł₲Ⱨ₮
@justinalbright.bsky.social
Reflect on your understanding of the world, to that of the other possibilities, then test for reasonableness.
Likewise, I did not expect Trump to win again - he did!
January 16, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Likewise, I did not expect Trump to win again - he did!
2/ One thing was that Farage could continue to gain strength anyway - as shown in 2025 - Reform UK won the largest number of local seats with 677 - many voters like them too.
Another thing, more Tories could have defected to Farage, as shown by the number of defections so far.
Another thing, more Tories could have defected to Farage, as shown by the number of defections so far.
January 16, 2026 at 8:44 PM
2/ One thing was that Farage could continue to gain strength anyway - as shown in 2025 - Reform UK won the largest number of local seats with 677 - many voters like them too.
Another thing, more Tories could have defected to Farage, as shown by the number of defections so far.
Another thing, more Tories could have defected to Farage, as shown by the number of defections so far.
1/ Cameron’s decision to hold the 2016 EU referendum was mainly a political risk management strategy. If he had not called the referendum, several things could plausibly have gone wrong for both him personally and the Tory Party.
January 16, 2026 at 8:44 PM
1/ Cameron’s decision to hold the 2016 EU referendum was mainly a political risk management strategy. If he had not called the referendum, several things could plausibly have gone wrong for both him personally and the Tory Party.
Could/would Boris Johnson join Reform too?
January 16, 2026 at 8:19 PM
Could/would Boris Johnson join Reform too?
If war came to Europe and then Britain, what could happen and not happen to British asylum seekers and refugees if we had left ECHR and did forced repatriations!
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
Many Europeans and Americans think World War 3 is imminent | YouGov
But few Europeans think they can effectively defend themselves from attack
yougov.co.uk
January 16, 2026 at 8:02 PM
If war came to Europe and then Britain, what could happen and not happen to British asylum seekers and refugees if we had left ECHR and did forced repatriations!
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
yougov.co.uk/internationa...
I browsed the above publication www.britishfuture.org/publication/...
The authors highlighted the misgivings of the past costs. However, they offered no estimates of the costs and consequential risks in their proposed solution's (scale up of 'routes and returns') end to end costings.
The authors highlighted the misgivings of the past costs. However, they offered no estimates of the costs and consequential risks in their proposed solution's (scale up of 'routes and returns') end to end costings.
How we can actually stop the boats - British Future
The ‘How we can actually stop the boats’ report draws on international evidence to argue that a scaled-up ‘routes and […]
www.britishfuture.org
January 16, 2026 at 10:37 AM
I browsed the above publication www.britishfuture.org/publication/...
The authors highlighted the misgivings of the past costs. However, they offered no estimates of the costs and consequential risks in their proposed solution's (scale up of 'routes and returns') end to end costings.
The authors highlighted the misgivings of the past costs. However, they offered no estimates of the costs and consequential risks in their proposed solution's (scale up of 'routes and returns') end to end costings.
Where are the cost calculations for this solution?
January 16, 2026 at 10:23 AM
Where are the cost calculations for this solution?
Those who do not like have-beens could also suffer from "confirmation bias" in their belief in the Reform Party - they may favour them after a while when they say (and do) things which favour their existing beliefs on what reformed Britishness is. They are anchoring to Farage's view of what to do.
January 15, 2026 at 8:46 PM
Those who do not like have-beens could also suffer from "confirmation bias" in their belief in the Reform Party - they may favour them after a while when they say (and do) things which favour their existing beliefs on what reformed Britishness is. They are anchoring to Farage's view of what to do.
3/ The Tory membership is now shrinking further (to Reform and elsewhere), but members are far more powerful in who should be in the top Tory posts.
This creates a feedback loop:
i/ Leaders pitch to Tory activists
ii/ Policies drift away from median voters
That's how "they" have declined.
This creates a feedback loop:
i/ Leaders pitch to Tory activists
ii/ Policies drift away from median voters
That's how "they" have declined.
January 15, 2026 at 8:31 PM
3/ The Tory membership is now shrinking further (to Reform and elsewhere), but members are far more powerful in who should be in the top Tory posts.
This creates a feedback loop:
i/ Leaders pitch to Tory activists
ii/ Policies drift away from median voters
That's how "they" have declined.
This creates a feedback loop:
i/ Leaders pitch to Tory activists
ii/ Policies drift away from median voters
That's how "they" have declined.
2/ The above social problems (housing...) altered the Tory membership profile, which changed dramatically from the 1970s. The members are older, whiter, home-owning, concentrated in southern England. They have much more influence over leadership selection and internal policy direction now.
January 15, 2026 at 8:31 PM
2/ The above social problems (housing...) altered the Tory membership profile, which changed dramatically from the 1970s. The members are older, whiter, home-owning, concentrated in southern England. They have much more influence over leadership selection and internal policy direction now.
1/ IMO, the root problem was that since joining the EEC, all the politicians, business CEOs and political top jobbers did not effect and drive money (as taxes) to counter the regional decline, housing shortage , wage stagnation, and inequality. Instead, the austerity in 2010s caused social unrest.
January 15, 2026 at 8:31 PM
1/ IMO, the root problem was that since joining the EEC, all the politicians, business CEOs and political top jobbers did not effect and drive money (as taxes) to counter the regional decline, housing shortage , wage stagnation, and inequality. Instead, the austerity in 2010s caused social unrest.
I suspect an extra pot of money in millions has enable him, or anyone, to roll out his own shop rather than joining the Tory shop.
January 15, 2026 at 7:40 PM
I suspect an extra pot of money in millions has enable him, or anyone, to roll out his own shop rather than joining the Tory shop.
I suspect she'd taken into account of the citizens' willingness to pay more tax - extra 1000 employees + facilities cost ~£70m/yr.
UK law is strong on paper, and regulators have real powers. But in practice enforcement struggles now, where is the money to recruit thousands more staff to do the work.
UK law is strong on paper, and regulators have real powers. But in practice enforcement struggles now, where is the money to recruit thousands more staff to do the work.
January 13, 2026 at 12:05 PM
I suspect she'd taken into account of the citizens' willingness to pay more tax - extra 1000 employees + facilities cost ~£70m/yr.
UK law is strong on paper, and regulators have real powers. But in practice enforcement struggles now, where is the money to recruit thousands more staff to do the work.
UK law is strong on paper, and regulators have real powers. But in practice enforcement struggles now, where is the money to recruit thousands more staff to do the work.
Unverified, Reddit says: assume ~450 enforcement staff early in 2024. I suppose several thousand dedicated analysts and enforcement professionals would likely be needed. Each 1000 employees plus services costs around £70m/year extra tax income is needed.
www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...
www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...
From the ukpolitics community on Reddit: Around 450 People Will Be Working On The Enforcement Of The UK’s Online Safety Act – To Begin With, At Least…
Explore this post and more from the ukpolitics community
www.reddit.com
January 13, 2026 at 11:49 AM
Unverified, Reddit says: assume ~450 enforcement staff early in 2024. I suppose several thousand dedicated analysts and enforcement professionals would likely be needed. Each 1000 employees plus services costs around £70m/year extra tax income is needed.
www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...
www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...
UK law does both.
Child protection law does not force a choice between:
1. protecting children from being depicted (Sexual Offences Act 2003), or
2. protecting children from exposure (Online Safety Act 2023)
UK Law explicitly addresses both harms, because they are different and cumulative.
Child protection law does not force a choice between:
1. protecting children from being depicted (Sexual Offences Act 2003), or
2. protecting children from exposure (Online Safety Act 2023)
UK Law explicitly addresses both harms, because they are different and cumulative.
January 13, 2026 at 11:33 AM
UK law does both.
Child protection law does not force a choice between:
1. protecting children from being depicted (Sexual Offences Act 2003), or
2. protecting children from exposure (Online Safety Act 2023)
UK Law explicitly addresses both harms, because they are different and cumulative.
Child protection law does not force a choice between:
1. protecting children from being depicted (Sexual Offences Act 2003), or
2. protecting children from exposure (Online Safety Act 2023)
UK Law explicitly addresses both harms, because they are different and cumulative.
" In 2025-26 we estimate that income tax will raise £330.7 billion."
Taken from obr.uk/forecasts-in...
Taken from obr.uk/forecasts-in...
Income tax - Office for Budget Responsibility
Taxes on different forms of personal income provide the biggest source of revenue for government. In 2025-26 we estimate that income tax will raise £330.7 billion. This represents 26.9 per cent of all...
obr.uk
January 5, 2026 at 2:17 PM
" In 2025-26 we estimate that income tax will raise £330.7 billion."
Taken from obr.uk/forecasts-in...
Taken from obr.uk/forecasts-in...
Ballpark tax increases - so as to be braver:
Current defence spending: ~2.3% GDP ≈ £65bn
defence spending of 5% GDP: ≈ £150bn
Extra required: ~£85bn/yr
One method is to raise UK basic & higher rates proportionally
Basic rate: 20% → ~27%
Higher rate: 40% → ~54%
Additional rate: 45% → ~60%
Current defence spending: ~2.3% GDP ≈ £65bn
defence spending of 5% GDP: ≈ £150bn
Extra required: ~£85bn/yr
One method is to raise UK basic & higher rates proportionally
Basic rate: 20% → ~27%
Higher rate: 40% → ~54%
Additional rate: 45% → ~60%
January 5, 2026 at 2:10 PM
Ballpark tax increases - so as to be braver:
Current defence spending: ~2.3% GDP ≈ £65bn
defence spending of 5% GDP: ≈ £150bn
Extra required: ~£85bn/yr
One method is to raise UK basic & higher rates proportionally
Basic rate: 20% → ~27%
Higher rate: 40% → ~54%
Additional rate: 45% → ~60%
Current defence spending: ~2.3% GDP ≈ £65bn
defence spending of 5% GDP: ≈ £150bn
Extra required: ~£85bn/yr
One method is to raise UK basic & higher rates proportionally
Basic rate: 20% → ~27%
Higher rate: 40% → ~54%
Additional rate: 45% → ~60%
Leadership and bravery need money to fund activities against the actions of bullies - calling one's friends and relatives to shout for rises in taxation will help.
bsky.app/profile/just...
bsky.app/profile/just...
I read this, 5% GDP to fight bullies would need £3000/yr tax per salaried worker in the UK www.lbc.co.uk/article/uk-f...
UK faces calls for 5% GDP defence spend, ahead of PM’s meeting with Nato chief | LBC
The UK will be expected to spend 5% of its economic output on defence investment, the chief of Nato has said, ahead of a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer next week.
www.lbc.co.uk
January 5, 2026 at 1:49 PM
Leadership and bravery need money to fund activities against the actions of bullies - calling one's friends and relatives to shout for rises in taxation will help.
bsky.app/profile/just...
bsky.app/profile/just...
I read this, 5% GDP to fight bullies would need £3000/yr tax per salaried worker in the UK www.lbc.co.uk/article/uk-f...
UK faces calls for 5% GDP defence spend, ahead of PM’s meeting with Nato chief | LBC
The UK will be expected to spend 5% of its economic output on defence investment, the chief of Nato has said, ahead of a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer next week.
www.lbc.co.uk
January 5, 2026 at 1:42 PM
I read this, 5% GDP to fight bullies would need £3000/yr tax per salaried worker in the UK www.lbc.co.uk/article/uk-f...
I presume this generalised headline is true too?
"No politician in the world can sleep safely any longer
The ripple effects are already being felt across Europe...
"No politician in the world can sleep safely any longer
The ripple effects are already being felt across Europe...
January 5, 2026 at 9:06 AM
I presume this generalised headline is true too?
"No politician in the world can sleep safely any longer
The ripple effects are already being felt across Europe...
"No politician in the world can sleep safely any longer
The ripple effects are already being felt across Europe...
On your: "There’s no Brexit costing comparator addressed."
I stated a pure counterfactual welfare position on the up and downs of GDP, not a causal Brexit one.
Independent to Brexit, the welfare of the bulk of the population is fixable by a big cut in housing costs.
I stated a pure counterfactual welfare position on the up and downs of GDP, not a causal Brexit one.
Independent to Brexit, the welfare of the bulk of the population is fixable by a big cut in housing costs.
December 18, 2025 at 2:15 PM
On your: "There’s no Brexit costing comparator addressed."
I stated a pure counterfactual welfare position on the up and downs of GDP, not a causal Brexit one.
Independent to Brexit, the welfare of the bulk of the population is fixable by a big cut in housing costs.
I stated a pure counterfactual welfare position on the up and downs of GDP, not a causal Brexit one.
Independent to Brexit, the welfare of the bulk of the population is fixable by a big cut in housing costs.
I do agree that that UK's productivity growth since ~2008 has been very weak. This is the main reason middle incomes have stagnated.
I think the leaders in elite companies know how to deliver high productivity but the leaders outside of this elite circle do not or not fare so well with no money.
I think the leaders in elite companies know how to deliver high productivity but the leaders outside of this elite circle do not or not fare so well with no money.
December 18, 2025 at 2:07 PM
I do agree that that UK's productivity growth since ~2008 has been very weak. This is the main reason middle incomes have stagnated.
I think the leaders in elite companies know how to deliver high productivity but the leaders outside of this elite circle do not or not fare so well with no money.
I think the leaders in elite companies know how to deliver high productivity but the leaders outside of this elite circle do not or not fare so well with no money.
3/ The government’s £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme opens for bids in February 2026. www.gov.uk/government/c...
Social and Affordable Homes Programme 2026 to 2036
Includes MHCLG’s policy statement, links to Homes England (HE) and Greater London Authority (GLA) prospectuses, and a letter to Private Registered Providers.
www.gov.uk
December 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
3/ The government’s £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme opens for bids in February 2026. www.gov.uk/government/c...