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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

10/10
🌍 With ~60 countries still contaminated by landmines, our findings from Colombia offer a roadmap. Demining is more than removing hidden explosives—it’s unlocking human and economic potential.

📄 Full paper at @jpube.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1016/j.jpub…

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpub…

Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

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🧠 Policy implications:
Demining is expensive, but it pays for itself many times over!
📌 Target demining near roads and schools
📌 Pair demining with development (e.g. crop substitution)
📌 Frame demining as a long-term investment, not just post-conflict cleanup 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

8/
⚖️ Demining also reduces inequality.
Redistributed gains benefit the broader community—not just elites. This underscores its value not just as a safety measure, but as a powerful and inclusive development policy. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

7/
🌳 Any unintended consequences?
No! We found no increase in deforestation or illegal gold mining—meaning that economic gains weren’t captured by extractive or illegal industries. And with complementary crop substitution programs, coca cultivation fell even further. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

6/
🛣️ Which areas benefit more?
Connectivity matters. Areas with better road access see stronger gains.
We simulate the national economic impact using a general equilibrium model: Without demining, Colombia’s GDP would’ve been 0.7% lower per year (2013–2019). 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

5/
📚 Education improves immediately after demining:
•Schools reopen
•Enrollment surges
•Student-teacher ratios fall
•More students advance grades
It’s like giving children an extra year of school—just by clearing the ground they walk on. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

4/
💥 Key findings:
✅ Nightlights (a proxy for economic activity) ↑ 11.5% ➡️ municipal GDP ↑ 0.7% ➡️ $1 spent on demining yields ~$6 in benefits.
✅ Population density ↑ 2.6%
✅ Math test pass rate ↑ 6.2 p.p.
✅ Reading test pass rate ↑ 7.5 p.p.
✅ Coca cultivation ↓ 9.9%

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

3/
💡Methodology:
We used geolocated data on 294 demined areas and compared them to regions not yet demined (but eventually would be). Using modern DiD methods (e.g. Callaway & @pedrosantanna.bsky.social 2021), we identified the causal effects of demining on local development. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

2/
Context: Colombia has one of the highest numbers of landmine victims globally—top 3 for homemade mines. But in 2013, amid peace talks with FARC, Colombia began a large-scale humanitarian demining campaign. We analyzed its impact. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

1/
🚫💣 Landmines silently continue to threaten lives long after conflicts end. But what happens when we remove them? In the paper, we study the economic and social effects of humanitarian demining in Colombia 🇨🇴. The results are, I think, quite powerful.
👇

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27d

Reposting here for folks who left X permanently.

So happy to see this paper finally published. And so cool that it found a home at @jpube.bsky.social !
This is paper summarizes what is perhaps the most policy relevant piece of research I’ve conducted so far. A 🧵:

Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · Jun 24

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Landmines: The local effects of demining"

By Mouno Prem, Miguel E. Purroy, & @jvargas.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#econsky

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Santiago Sanchez-Pages @sanpages.bsky.social · Sep 4

Desgraciadamente, importantes partidos y medios de comunicación continúan dando eco y espacio a la idea de que la inmigración trae crimen. ¿Pero qué dice la evidencia? A esto respondo en mi nueva entrada en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social
nadaesgratis.es/santiago-san...

Inmigración y crimen: lo que dice la evidencia

Entre otros temas, este verano ha estado marcado por la agitación del fantasma de la inmigración por parte de los partidos de ultraderecha. Primero alentando los progromos en Torre Pacheco, después ve...

nadaesgratis.es

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · Sep 2

🆕 Climate change, natural resources, and conflict: Navigating a complex nexus

Today on VoxDev, Oliver Vanden Eynde (@pse.bsky.social)‬ & @jvargas.bsky.social (Collegio Carlo Alberto) discuss how extreme weather and the green transition are reshaping global conflict: voxdev.org/topic/energy...

Climate change, natural resources, and conflict: Navigating a complex nexus

Extreme weather and the green transition are reshaping global conflict. We summarise the evidence on this trend and explore how policy can respond.

voxdev.org

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · Jun 24

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Landmines: The local effects of demining"

By Mouno Prem, Miguel E. Purroy, & @jvargas.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#econsky

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Catia Batista @catiabatista.bsky.social · May 23

New paper out in @science.org!

“Brain drain” or “brain gain”?
Effects of high-skilled international emigration on origin countries

doi.org/10.1126/scie...

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Feb 21

Very moving piece. Thank you for sharing it.

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · Feb 19

I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.

Diary

Week 1

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · Feb 18

This is a deeply stupid and offensive article. The @nytimes.com is failing to rise to the moment in spectacular fashion.

Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · Feb 18

Canada as the 51st state? Trump thinks it would be a boon to his legacy. But it would also be a boon to Democrats, who would gain a lot more voters. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/17/u...

Canada as the 51st State? In Electoral Terms, Trump’s Idea Favors Democrats.

Bringing Canada into the United States, however farcical the prospect may seem, would alter the political map in a way likely to cost Republicans.

www.nytimes.com

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Feb 15

Los invito a leer mi Op Ed en El Tiempo (con Daniel Mejía y Andrés Rivera) que resume los resultados de un paper que estudia el efecto de los ceses al fuego decretados por el gobierno colombiano sobre los niveles de diferentes tipos de violencia.
t.co/prKTktWwyl

https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/paz-y-derechos-humanos/los-ceses-del-fuego-aumentaron-los-niveles-de-violencia-contra-la-poblacion-civil-3427043

t.co

Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Feb 1

Can’t think of a better choice.

Economics Unito @economicsunito.bsky.social · Feb 1

We are proud to announce that Prof. Giovanni Mastrobuoni is the new director of the PhD program in Economics of the University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto
www.phdpareto.carloalberto.org

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Feb 1

This is great. Florian is an amazing colleague. 👏🏾👏🏾

Economics Unito @economicsunito.bsky.social · Feb 1

We are thrilled that professor @floswald.bsky.social for beaming appointed the Data Editor of @jpolecon.bsky.social. Congrats Florian!

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Jan 30

Also my department. Follow us!

Andrea Matranga @andreamatranga.bsky.social · Dec 12

@economicsunito.bsky.social My department is now on Bluesky! Give us a follow for info on economics in the shadow of the Mole!

Reposted by Juan Vargas

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · Jan 24

"The whole field of economics, or what used to be called political economy, was really founded by people who thought they should be telling other people what to do."

This recent talk by Nobel laureate David Card at @rfberlin.bsky.social, on Immigration and Minimum Wages, is magisterial.

RFBerlin Annual Public Lecture with Nobel Prize Laureate David Card

YouTube video by ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin

www.youtube.com

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · Jan 10

Crime economists:
CAF-Development Bank of Latin America released this call for proposals to develop policy documents on organized crime in LAC:
t.co/Rs0JYvjApm
@jenniferdoleac.bsky.social

https://www.caf.com/en/work-with-us/calls/call-for-proposals-for-policy-documents-organized-crime-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/

t.co

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Reposted by Juan Vargas

Daron Acemoglu @dacemoglumit.bsky.social · Dec 2

A thread about whether the global – and American – center-left needs a different kind of liberalism. These are thoughts triggered by Trump’s victory in the United States and the swing against mainstream incumbents in many other elections around the world.

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