Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 1d

Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating

Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure

Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

6 23 67

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7

Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%

Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen

Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)

2 2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

Shutdown may be compounding economic worries: economic impact is what Americans are most concerned about, among list of possible consequences

Troops deploying to U.S. cities is divisive, with strong backing from GOP base but little support beyond it

More below: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

3/3

CBS News poll finds few feel shutdown is worth it; low marks for Republicans, Democrats, Trump's handling

Americans are concerned about effect of shutdown on economy, amid unease about jobs and inflation.

www.cbsnews.com

1 4 13

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

Fewer call Trump "focused" than did at start of this term

Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs

Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off

And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs

2/3

1 3 7

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term

New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)

At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low

Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024

1/3

2 8 15

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging...

Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news

Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care

1 3

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 3d

NEW

Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling

More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently

"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP

"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats

www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

10 16

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 4d

And it's younger folks who are likeliest to report cross-cutting political discussions, in person and online

Age <45
57% in person
45% online

Age 45+
48% in person
36% online

See below for more from latest CBS News/YouGov poll on political silos and views of violence and civility in politics

2/2

CBS News poll finds Americans say political violence unacceptable; concerned about more of it in future

Most believe people do get along, but politics drives them apart.

www.cbsnews.com

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 4d

How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views?

Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago

Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work

Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online

1/2

1 2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 5d

NEW

Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs

Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young

Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

1 3

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 5d

Today, just over half say job market is bad — worse than evaluations this spring

Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want

Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

2/2

3 9

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 5d

NEW

Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern

Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations

At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25

1/2

1 2 5

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 9d

Reminder that Adams dropping out of NYC mayoral race doesn’t really move the needle — Mamdani still leads by double digits, according to our poll

His support is so low that reallocating his voters to their second choice only helps Cuomo a little bit (and not all of Adams’ backers pick Cuomo second)

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Eric Adams not much of a factor, with so many voters saying things in NYC are going badly and just 27% approval rating

Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...

But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead

(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)

4

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 21d

And two thirds of newer residents — those who moved to NYC within last 10 years — pick Mamdani, while margin's smaller among longer-term residents

Moved in last 10 years:
68% Mamdani
17% Cuomo
7% Sliwa

>10 years ago:
49% Mamdani
30% Cuomo
9% Sliwa

Born in NYC:
35% Mamdani
28% Cuomo
21% Sliwa

2/2

1

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 21d

Big vote differences between NYC renters and home owners, and by how long voters have lived in city...

Renters currently back Mamdani by over 20 points, while race appears very close among owners (Cuomo +2)

Renters:
47% Mamdani
25% Cuomo
14% Sliwa

Home owners:
34% Cuomo
32% Mamdani
18% Sliwa

1/2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Majorities of young voters and those with college degrees back Mamdani, while race is tigther among older and non-college voters

Newer residents/renters likelier to pick Mamdani than those who’ve been in NYC longer/home owners

Mamdani backers likelier than others to use social media to follow race

1 2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Eric Adams not much of a factor, with so many voters saying things in NYC are going badly and just 27% approval rating

Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...

But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead

(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)

2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Cuomo retains less of his primary support than Mamdani — about one in ten Cuomo voters from June primary are switching to Mamdani

Other indications that Mamdani is consolidating vote: he leads by 30 points among D primary voters — wider than his winning margin — and by 26 points among registered Ds

1 3

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Majorities of young voters and those with college degrees back Mamdani, while race is tigther among older and non-college voters

Newer residents/renters likelier to pick Mamdani than those who’ve been in NYC longer/home owners

Mamdani backers likelier than others to use social media to follow race

1 3 12

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Mamdani currently leads by 15 pts

Very important qualities for...

Mamdani voters?
78% Will bring needed change
77% Is honest and trustworthy

Cuomo voters?
72% Can get things done
66% Has the right experience

Top issues
Cost of living for Mamdani voters (53%)
Crime & safety for Cuomo voters (44%)

1 1

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Voters more mixed in assessments of crime in NYC — many say it's held steady or fallen in last four years

(Tight race among those who feel crime has gone up)

Top priorities to lower crime are more social programs/community outreach and tougher sentences; just one in five say more police on streets

1

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

By two to one, New Yorkers want next mayor to oppose Trump, rather than work with him — that sentiment benefits Mamdani

Sizable majority would prefer next mayor oppose National Guard troops in NYC were Trump to send them

And if they felt Trump was supporting a candidate, it would be a net negative

1 2

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

Eight in ten want mayor to focus “a lot” on making it easier for middle- and working-class; half say so about making it easier to do business

Not mutually exclusive: four in ten want both (and they lean Cuomo)

Another four in ten want a lot of focus on former but not on business (heavily Mamdani)

1

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22d

NEW

Cost of living, calls for change undergird Mamdani lead in NYC

Voters call city unaffordable and prioritize someone bringing "needed change" over "right experience"

Trump also a factor, with majorities wanting next mayor to oppose him on ICE and National Guard

www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

1 8 27

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · Sep 7

Tariff support has steadily eroded…

Nov: 52%
Dec: 47%
Jan: 46%
Mar: 44%
Apr: 42%
Jun: 41%
Jul: 40%
Sep: 38%

About 4 in 10 report buying fewer things due to tariffs

Support concentrated among Trump base — 70% of Republicans say Americans should be willing to pay more to support his trade policies

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · Sep 7

Trump administration continues to get negative ratings on economy and on personal finances

Two thirds say his policies are making grocery prices go up

And 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off vs. only 20% saying better off (net: -30 pts)

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-n...

5 6

Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · Sep 7

Trump administration continues to get negative ratings on economy and on personal finances

Two thirds say his policies are making grocery prices go up

And 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off vs. only 20% saying better off (net: -30 pts)

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-n...

1 3 13