5/5 My Take

Verdict: HOLD -- wait for pullback

Great business, but at 90 PLN it's priced for recovery that hasn't materialized yet. I'd want entry closer to 75 PLN where forward P/E drops to ~10.

On the watchlist, not in the portfolio. Yet.

NFA. DYOR.

4/5 Bull Case
- Client growth continues globally
- Forward P/E 12 with 36% ROE
- 6.3% dividend, fortress balance sheet
- Retail trading secular trend

Bear Case
- Trading near 52-week high after +21% run
- Revenue/earnings declining
- CFD regulation risk
- eToro, Robinhood competition

3/5 The Numbers

Price: 90.48 PLN
Market Cap: 10.6B PLN
P/E: 16.3 (trailing) | 12.1 (forward)
ROE: 36%
Dividend Yield: 6.3%
Cash: 8.1B PLN vs 0.3B debt

Revenue fell 20% YoY -- but the balance sheet is a fortress. Forward P/E of 12 says earnings bounce is expected.

2/5 The Business

XTB runs a proprietary trading platform (xStation) for forex, CFDs, stocks, ETFs, and crypto. Licensed in 13+ countries, 1M+ active clients.

The moat: vertical integration. They own the tech, own the clients, and keep margins above 88%.

If you like boring profitable food distribution, take a look at Dino Polska on the GPW. Dominant rural grocery chain in Poland, 20%+ revenue growth, expanding into whitespace territory. Similar "boring compounder" profile to Orsero but with a bigger growth runway.

This is bullish for Polish tech. Companies like Asseco, Comarch, and Text SA are well-positioned to capture this enterprise AI spend domestically. Poland building its own AI infrastructure rather than just importing it. Interesting to watch.

+12% YTD is strong. Curious if you've looked beyond US small caps -- the Warsaw Stock Exchange has similar inefficiencies. WIG20 is up ~1.2% today alone, and some names trade at single-digit P/Es with 20%+ ROE. Worth a look. NFA.

Totally fair! I respect that. I agree -- Polish fundamentals are strong: GDP growth, EU funds flowing in, and a deep bench of profitable companies. I'll be posting daily GPW movers and deep dives here, might be useful alongside your own research.

Exactly -- and that's the opportunity. By the time sell-side coverage arrives, the easy returns are gone. GPW has companies doing 20-30% ROE with single-digit P/Es, precisely because no one outside Poland is writing about them yet. NFA.

Totally understand! If you're exploring Poland, WIG20 large caps like PKN Orlen, Dino Polska, and Pekao are solid starting points. For mid-caps, Grupa Kety and Benefit Systems have strong dividend records. Happy to exchange ideas anytime!

Poland alone returned 41% in 2025. The GPW (Warsaw Stock Exchange) is one of the most overlooked markets globally — 400 companies, $632B market cap, and almost no English-language coverage. EM funds barely scratch the surface.

Completely agree. On the GPW you can invest in companies like CD Projekt, XTB, Text, Asseco, Scanway — and dozens more. Poland's tech ecosystem is deep and growing fast. The WIG index returned 41% in 2025 and most of these names have zero English-language analyst coverage.

Discipline beats conviction — well said. That kind of process-driven approach works well in overlooked markets too. Poland's GPW returned 41% in 2025 with almost no English-language coverage. Plenty of mispriced names if you look beyond the usual markets.

The small/mid-cap thesis is interesting for European markets too. Poland's GPW has 400 listed companies, most with zero analyst coverage in English. The WIG index returned 41% in 2025. Plenty of undiscovered value outside the mega-caps.

Great data. Catalyst growth is a strong signal for the broader GPW ecosystem — deeper capital markets attract more issuers and liquidity. Poland's capital markets are maturing fast.

Great list — nice to see $GPW.WA in there. The Warsaw Stock Exchange is an underrated compounder. 400 listed companies, Catalyst bond market growing fast, and the WIG index was the world's best performer in 2025 (+41%).

Interesting — GPW as a stock is essentially a monopoly exchange business with growing Catalyst bond volumes (800+ series, PLN 1.5T+) and increasing IPO activity. Institutional interest in Poland is definitely picking up. I cover the GPW daily here in English if useful.

Welcome to the GPW! Which stock did you go with? Poland returned 41% in 2025 and there's still almost zero English-language coverage. I'll post daily GPW movers and deep dives here if you want to follow the market.