From my POV, it seems that people lacking dysphoria and incongruity between sex/gender, are more likely to overlook gender; similar to how a fire alarm that is not blaring gets less notice.

If your body started persistently producing large amounts of estrogen, you may get a clearer sense here.

Yes, but science estimates the ratios of such things, and informs us that it's not just trans folk at increased risk of physical danger.

Correct, science has nothing to say on whether the increased rates of assault that bathroom bills are expected to cause is good or bad.

It's only used to try and measure such rates and risks, people then decide how to apply that info.