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Kernighan says FREE LINK

@kernighan.bsky.social

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Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · Jul 3

2024 election results mega thread for reference. It will be updated as more studies of the 2024 election become available. Includes some comparisons to the 2020 election as well to help illustrate some points about the real world impacts of the electoral college and how Harris did vs Biden.

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Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

I voted for Harris, it still didn't work.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

You repeating this over and over doesn't make it factual reality.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

Math is misinformation?

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

Change research is misinformation?

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

Navigator research is misinformation?

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 11h

Pew is misinformation?

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

Also, the substack in question was written by researcher for Change Research, and the same data is in the Pew research as well.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

An article from Dec 7, which does not have complete election analysis available, great. Yet you dismiss current research as misinformation. And again, Dearborn is a city, Michigan is a state, and it's the statewide total that determines the outcome.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

Last I checked, Dearborn is not the state of Michigan. Dearborn does not control how the entirety of Michigan votes. Dearborn voters did not give Michigan to Trump.
Even if they *had* Harris still would have lost, because MI is not enough EC votes to change the outcome.

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Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

TARP passed the House and Senate the second time around, thus making it “the first and most significant decision” of Obama’s presidency

www.thenation.com/article/cult...

How Obama-Era Economics Sold Us Short

Faced with the shattering 2008 crisis, Obama and his key advisers largely sought to restore the wobbly pre-crisis status quo.

www.thenation.com

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

And I understand the bailout started under GWB. However:
"The bill, to create something called the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), was voted down by Congress the first time, but with Obama’s support as president-elect and more oversight and structural controls built into it,

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

Ok, he didn't literally say it. He just did it.

www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-s...

Obama Sees Value in "Drill, Baby, Drill"

President's Announcement of Offshore Oil Drilling Seems Designed to Spur Energy Bill -- and Give White House Mantle of Bipartisanship

www.cbsnews.com

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

That is not a fact at all. The fact is, they had NO IMPACT on the election result. They did not sway it to Trump. They could have voted Harris, Trump still would have won. This is what you're missing.

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Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

one interesting thing I just learned... you can cross post to blue sky from mastadon?!

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

This is factual reality. But clearly no one can help your addled mind.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

Nope. Factual reality.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

This is false.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

79% of Arab Americans in Michigan did not vote for Trump. You're blaming the 21% that did, who are 0.5% of Trumps total. Why aren't you blaming the 54% of white people that voted for Trump? That's a heck of a lot more than 0.5%.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

bsky.app/profile/kern...

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · Jul 3

And what's interesting about this trend, is that it means that the more turnout went *up* the worse Harris did. I.e., low turnout actually helped Harris in the 2024 election:

www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

Bigger turnout in 2024 would have benefited Trump, new survey finds

The findings contradict a Washington axiom that Democrats benefit from growing the electorate.

www.politico.com

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

bsky.app/profile/kern...

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · Jul 3

Back to the battle ground states. What do we find there?

New voter registrations that broke heavily for Trump in every battleground state except Wisconsin. At the end of the day, this is what actually cost Harris the election:

substack.com/home/post/p-...

Kamala Harris Didn’t Lose to the Couch

New Voters, Not Drop off, Determined Harris' Defeat

substack.com

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

bsky.app/profile/kern...

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · Jul 3

We can additionally see the top reasons as to why people chose to vote the way they did. Top 3?
* Inflation/cost of living (43%)
* Immigration (31%)
* Jobs and economy (31%)

Things that were not significant motivators:
* Gaza (5%)
* LGBTQ+ issues (5%)
* Issues related to transgender people (2%)

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

bsky.app/profile/kern...

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · Jul 3

So, now that we understand about the electoral college, what do the actual election results for 2024 show us?

Most importantly, they show that 60% of white male voters and 53% of white female voters went all in for Trump.

navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-el...

2024 Post-Election Survey: Racial Analysis of 2024 Election Results

Polling report on how racial groups voted in the 2024 election, including what issues mattered most and how vote shares compared to the 2020 election.

navigatorresearch.org

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

No, white people overwhelmingly voted for Trump, and that's why we got Trump. Again 78% of the voters in Michigan are white and 54% of them voted for Trump. Only 21% of Arab Americans in Michigan voted for Trump.

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

A strong part of the electorate? You're deluded. The entire Arab American population in Michigan is 2%. That includes people not eligible to vote (children, non-citizen adults).

Kernighan says FREE LINK @kernighan.bsky.social · 12h

You're calling basic math misinformation?
You do know that 2020 Biden would have also lost to Trump?
You do know that Harris *outperformed* Biden in over half the swing states?