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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 33m

This party was trying to get registered for this year's election but didn't get there in time.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 56m

Oh dear. The chap behind Power 2 People is not just a March for Australia organiser, he's a fire ant baiting truther.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09...

MP slammed for speaking at 'scaremongering' rally that claimed fire ant bait shrinks babies' heads

A Queensland MP is facing criticism for speaking at a gathering of conspiracy theorists who erroneously claim vaccines cause stupidity and fire ant bait is harmful to fetal brain development.

www.abc.net.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 59m

It is checked. A random sample of claimed members (a few to several dozen) are contacted to see if they will say they are actually members of the party. If too many say they're not then the party is not registered. That said the statistical test is fairly lenient.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 9h

The application being published means it somehow managed to pass membership vetting to establish that it at least may really have 1500 members. Usually parties with websites as bad as P2P don't get near.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 9h

Party registration watch: because there is less than zero actual voter demand for yet another paranoid minor right party with a manifesto assembled from Ralph Babet's lost belly fluff, here is "Power 2 People" applying for registration, avoid.

aec.gov.au/Parties_and_...

aec.gov.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 23h

Wright is the current seat of interest. A direct swing of 5.2% from the LNP to One Nation would see One Nation win it. Some national polls have been close to this.

But Qld will be redistributed, with or without expansion.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Candidate S Ley has taken the lead in my sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

I did not notice former Derwent Valley Mayor Ben Shaw had run for Sorell Council in 2022. Anyway he has now been elected to Sorell Council on a vacancy recount. #lgtas #politas

www.tec.tas.gov.au/local-govern...

www.tec.tas.gov.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

There isn't a question on it, I'd expect engagement is not high right now.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

(For Richmond, I assumed ALP->Grn was the same as Ryan and that all other->Grn in Richmond was the same as all other->ALP in Richmond. I got Greens beating Nat but it was inside 51-49).

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Richmond is actually an interesting one because the ALP->Grn preference flow would presumably be much weaker than Grn->ALP. Despite the easy ALP 2PP win, by the time you throw in the 5.2% primary vote swing and that, the Nat would be not far off winning it.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Newspoll these days is less bouncy than it used to be so that may help him.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Close to half of Coalition voters follow how to vote cards and the Coalition currently recommends prefs to Labor over Greens on its cards. Among the rest not surprising that plenty of right-wing L-NP supporters would prefer the centrish ALP to lefter Greens.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

sorry, I typed that the wrong way round. will delete and repost.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

through the roof. during that streak it was between net +26 and +57

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

I think the rest are right.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Greens also don't take Brisbane. They were 6.21 behind Labor at the 3CP point so taking 5.22 off Labor's primary still leaves Labor about a point ahead.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Greens do not take Macnamara, they're still third.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Not easily. Coalition prefs flow strongly to Labor over Greens at present so Labor vs Greens is probably something like 70-30

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Net -1 isn't popular, it's OK by modern standards though.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Most Newspolls at 56 2PP or better in a row (includes derived estimates)

10 Labor (Rudd) Jan-Jun 08
6 Coalition (Howard) Mar-May 96
5 Labor (Rudd) Feb-Apr 09
4 Coalition (Howard) Oct-Nov 96
4 Labor (Rudd) July - Sep 08
4 LABOR (Albanese) JULY-OCT 25

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

My polling aggregate following #Newspoll 56.5 to ALP (+0.3)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

#Newspoll 57-43 to ALP
ALP 37 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 11 IND/other 12

Albanese net -1 (47-8)
Ley net -20 (31-51)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 52-30

Monday - Thursday, predates Hastie quitting shadow cabinet.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

(sighs deeply)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

I support expansion, within reason. It's been a long time, it will make for more manageable local representation, it might allow for more distinctive local outcomes, it will reduce malapportionment. This is not a partisan plot.

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