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Opportunity in a Time of Change

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1h

IMF MD Georgieva: "And to my beloved, native Europe, some tough love: enough lofty rhetoric on how to lift competitiveness—you know what must be done. It is time for action. Consider appointing a “single market czar” with real authority to drive reforms forward." www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...

Join us as Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the curtain raiser speech for the 2025 Annual Meetings at the Milken Center on Wednesday, October 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

www.imf.org

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2h

A revealing anecdote in this WSJ story about USA soybean export markets is a Tunisian entrepreneur worried about whether a USA exporter would be a reliable supplier ... www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 3h

"The US government shutdown has added to the uncertainty by halting publication of Commodity Futures Trading Commission data that show how speculative investors are positioned in gold and other commodities." www.ft.com/content/ed7f...

Gold price tops $4,000 for first time

Prices have doubled in less than two years as central banks stockpile bullion and investors pour in to gold funds

www.ft.com

Desperate search for fuel in Mali's capital as al-Qaida-linked group enforces blockade

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 3h

Mali: "Beverly Ochieng, an analyst at the Control Risks Group consulting firm, said JNIM is using the blockade to pressure commercial operators & residents to distance themselves from the military authorities, therefore undermining the government’s legitimacy & authority." apnews.com/article/mali...

Residents in Mali's capital, Bamako, are struggling with a fuel shortage due to a blockade by a militant group linked to al-Qaida.

apnews.com

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 19h

IMF policy paper stocktaking of international debt architecture for resolving sovereign debt with private creditors, Box 2, reference to Afreximbank ... www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 19h

Kuwait / prospectus & pricing supplements for the $11.25 billion Eurobond issuances. Unlike many of these documents, the public debt section is extremely short. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

This at least identifies ADFD, which the contemporaneous statement did not. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

London Stock Exchange | London Stock Exchange

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www.londonstockexchange.com

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

In the Kenya Eurobond offering documentation, I was hoping to see a bit more about the April $500m private placement; it gets one sentence. "In April 2025, Kenya concluded a private placement of US$500 mn 8.25% amortising notes due 2032 with the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development as initial investor."

London Stock Exchange | London Stock Exchange

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

"Chuxin isn’t named among the nearly 4,300 banking firms registered by China’s top industry regulator, and couldn’t be found on publicly available official lists of financial firms and company registries."
www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

Angola -- new Eurobond yields expected to be in 10 percent range. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

Kenya / prospectus for the new Eurobond issuance. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

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www.londonstockexchange.com

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

"The bond sale comes at a critical time for Angola. The government needs to repay $864 million on a bond maturing in November and has borrowed $1 billion via a total return swap with JPMorgan expiring in December." www.msn.com/en-us/money/...

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

There's another Angola swap transaction
www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

Kenya: "The swap, which allows the floating, dollar-based interest rates across the three loans from China Exim Bank to drop into their lower, yuan-based rates, will save the country about $215 million a year, Mbadi [MoF] told reporters." www.msn.com/en-us/money/...

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

‪Madagascar: "Ahead of naming him [as PM], [President] Rajoelina said the country needed a "prime minister capable of restoring order and the people’s trust." He added that Zafisambo's top priority would be to restore electricity and water supply." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

Climate Change, Conflict, and the Risk of Economic Collapse in Africa

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

higher per capita income low conflict (e.g. Botswana), lower per capita income high conflict (e.g. Chad) & some migration from former to latter (e.g. Mali). Meat of paper is whether this can be elaborated a climate-conflict growth trap with collapse possibility. www.nber.org/papers/w34320

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 1d

NBER working paper Climate Change, Conflict, and the Risk of Economic Collapse in Africa, by Ferguson, Burke, Miguel & Hsiang. Impressive visualization of the basic storyline: African income levels & conflict density 1960-2023 sort into two clusters with illustrative countries:

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

India: "The [climate insurance] scheme would adopt a parametric insurance model, where policyholders receive a pre-determined payout when specific weather thresholds such as rainfall, temperature or windspeed are breached." www.msn.com/en-us/money/...

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

Madagascar: "Police in Antananarivo fired teargas to disperse the marchers, a Reuters reporter said. Many were university students who seized on protests last month against water and power cuts to air broader grievances against the government." www.msn.com/en-us/politi...

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

"nearby farms. Services have not kept up. Joblessness is rife & illegal construction is booming. Even the language has changed, with Amazigh supplanted by Moroccan Arabic. "Ait Amira was a tinderbox waiting to explode," Khalid Alayoud, a sociologist and activist, said." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

ESG might be more resilient than critics expect

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

Morocco: "The protests took a particularly violent turn in rural areas such as Ait Amira, an agricultural town in [the] southern breadbasket region. Over 3 decades, the population there has more than quadrupled, from 25,000 to around 113,000, as seasonal laborers poured in to work on ..."

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

Florian Berg (MIT Sloan): "Probably the most important development on climate reporting in the past few years is the publication of reporting standards by the International Sustainability Standards Board." www.ft.com/content/3287...

There are reasons to be hopeful about corporate efforts to tackle issues such as climate change

www.ft.com

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 2d

"Beach had let it be known he was friends with Donald Trump Jr., showing what senior [DRC] Congolese officials described as text messages with the U.S. president’s eldest son, and their photos together. Did he speak for the Trump administration?" www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

He Drops Trump Jr.’s Name in Pursuit of Billion-Dollar Deals. It’s Getting Awkward.

Gentry Beach, a college friend of the president’s firstborn, has left a trail of confusion abroad as he courts foreign officials and business leaders to lock up investments in mining, oil pipelines an...

www.wsj.com