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Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

World Trade Organization @wto.org · 18h

AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026 #WTOStats #GlobalTrade #WTOPublications

AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026

Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August). However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

dlvr.it

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 13h

UK's industry minister Chris McDonald on EU steel tariff plans:

"We will always defend our critical steel industry, which is why we are pushing the European Commission for urgent clarification of the impact of this move on the UK."

Source:
www.kentonline.co.uk/news/nationa...

Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

Tom Jenkins @tomoljenkins.bsky.social · 14h

Bad luck for GB steel, as a "FTA partner", but Northern Ireland will get special treatment thanks to the Good Friday and Windsor Agreements (which would end should the UK denounce the ECHR):

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 14h

Šefčovič on the proposal to protect the EU steel sector from unfair impacts of global steel overcapacity:

"We remain committed to a rules-based trade system (...) including with key steel-producing countries. But we must also act decisively to defend Europe's interests"
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Remarks by Executive Vice-President Séjourné and Commissioner Šef\u010Dovi\u010D on the proposal to protect the EU steel sector from unfair impacts of global steel overcapacity

Executive Vice-President Séjourné\'s remarks:\n \nMesdames et Messieurs, bonjour, \nEn mars dernier, je suis venu devant vous avec une promesse simple et nette : sauver l\'acier européen, sauver nos i...

ec.europa.eu

Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

Simon Lester @simonlester.com · 15h

I'm not a fan of tariffs, but if you are going to do them, this is an appropriate way under WTO rules.

Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 15h

The proposed measure is fully WTO compliant. Upon receipt of a mandate from the Council, the EU will swiftly engage with affected EU trading partners under the Article XXVIII GATT procedure regarding this change to the EU's WTO tariffs, with a view to offering them country specific allocations.

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 15h

The EU steel industry is currently facing significant pressure from unsustainable levels of global overcapacity, which is more than five times the EU's annual steel consumption (currently 620 million tons and projected to grow to 721 million tons by 2027).

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 15h

The proposed measure is fully WTO compliant. Upon receipt of a mandate from the Council, the EU will swiftly engage with affected EU trading partners under the Article XXVIII GATT procedure regarding this change to the EU's WTO tariffs, with a view to offering them country specific allocations.

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 15h

Eu Commission proposes plan to protect EU steel industry from unfair impacts of global overcapacity.

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

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Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

Georg von Harrach @georgvh.com · 15h

EU proposes to cut import steel quotas in half and double tariffs to 50 percent. We are trying to save the European industry, Commissioner Sejourne said.

It will be tough for UK industry which exports 80 percent of its steel to the European Union. #brexit #steel #tariffs #wto

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

If all three nations agree to it during their 2026 joint review, the USMCA agreement can be extended for another 16 years. Failure to reach a consensus will trigger annual reviews until the original 16-year term expires in 2036.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

As negotiated by the first Trump admin, representatives from all three countries will meet on July 1, 2026, the sixth anniversary of the USMCA pact’s entry into force. At that time, each party will get a chance to confirm whether & under what conditions it wishes to extend the agreement.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

USMCA

Will Trump approve a simple USMCA renewal?
While Canada and Mexico favor a straightforward renewal, the U.S. is expected to push for broad changes, likely using the threat of tougher tariffs if the pact breaks down as leverage.
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www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Will Trump approve a simple USMCA renewal?

Next year's scheduled review of the North American trade pact is looming over President Donald Trump's meeting with his Canadian counterpart.

www.politico.com

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Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

Robert Wolfe @bobwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

general assumption is that forthcoming USMCA “review” will be painful for Canada and Mexico. But does that imply that the treaty will be amended? and does that imply a need for Congressional action? 1/2

Why Jared Polis Wants Democrats to Campaign on Free Trade

After years of trying to have it all ways on tariffs, Democrats are uniting in opposition to Trump’s global trade war.

www.politico.com

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

US Tariffs on Steel Imports from Canada

Partial relief from steel tariffs - which currently sit at 50 % -
is the expectation of the Canadian delegation heading to the White House for Tuesday's meeting btw. PM Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump.

www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

Canada aims for steel tariff relief as Carney hopes to improve relationship with Trump, sources say | CBC News

Partial relief from steel tariffs is the modest expectation of the Canadian delegation heading to the White House for Tuesday’s meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Tru...

www.cbc.ca

Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

Trump designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio to continue tariff negotiations with Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the Brazilian statement added.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

Lula's office noted that the Brazilian president had asked Trump to remove the additional 40% tariff.
The tariffs have triggered a drop in Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. by as much as 70%, while sharply reducing shipments of Brazilian beef.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to meet in person soon after a friendly video call on Monday, Brazil's government said, boosting prospects for a thaw in bilateral relations that are at their worst in decades.
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www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Brazil's Lula, Trump hold video call, says source

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and United States President Donald Trump are holding a videoconference call to discuss tariffs, a source at the Brazilian government told Reuters on Monday.

www.reuters.com

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

Under trade deals reached with Japan and the EU, the United States has agreed to 15 % tariffs on light-duty vehicles, but it is not clear if they will face that rate for larger vehicles.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

Larger vehicles include everything from delivery trucks, garbage trucks, public utility trucks, transit, shuttle, and school buses and tractor-trailer trucks as well as semi-trucks and heavy-duty vocational vehicles.
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 1d

US Tariffs

All medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the United States will face a 25 % tariff rate starting Nov. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday, a significant escalation of his effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition.
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www.cbc.ca/news/busines...

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 2d

EU/India Relations

Reminder: The new EU/India strategic agenda.
⬇️
eu-india.org/2025/09/27/e....

Explained: India Strategic Agenda | News explained – India-EU Trade Council

eu-india.org

Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 2d

EU/India Trade Talks

Senior officials of India and the EU will commence the next round of talks for a proposed free trade agreement on Monday (October 6, 2025) in Brussels.
This will be the 14th round of negotiations between the two sides.

www.thehindu.com/business/Eco...

India, EU to begin next round of talks for trade pact from Oct. 6 in Brussels

India and EU officials to hold 14th round of talks for free trade agreement, aiming to boost commerce and investments.

www.thehindu.com

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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 4d

Maros Sefcovic: "Based on the trust we have rebuilt over the last years, I'm convinced that we can proceed with the SPS negotiations very quickly. (...)
Probably the most optimistic assessment would be that we can, we can do it in less than a year, if there is a good political will."
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Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 4d

An agreement struck between Britain and the EU in May to reduce friction on the trade of agricultural produce could be implemented within a year with "good political will," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic told a conference on Thursday.
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www.reuters.com/business/ret...

UK, EU food trade deal could be implemented within a year, EU trade chief says

An agreement struck between Britain and the European Union in May to reduce friction on the trade of agricultural produce could be implemented within a year with "good political will," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic told a conference on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Kirsten Ostermann

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 4d

Europe hunts for chokepoints it can weaponise against China in age of economic warfare

My report on the search for leverage against coercion from Beijing and Washington.

The elephant in the room: would it take for Brussels to act?

Europe hunts for chokepoints it can weaponise in a new age of economic warfare

Bureaucrats look for leverage against coercion from Beijing and Washington but what would it take for Brussels to act?

www.scmp.com

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