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Carney says he will meet China's president 'at appropriate time' to talk trade | CBC News

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

CBC story here including clip of Carney's presser:

Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday said he's anticipating a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the two nations work to build a new, stable trade relationship in response to the United Sta...

www.cbc.ca

China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

The smarter path is conditional agreements with snap-back provisions, diversification, and careful triangulation of China and US policy. Done effectively, Canada can still extract economic benefits from dealing with China without sacrificing jobs, security, or its future as an advanced economy.

Chinese analysts and diplomats say that Canada, under pressure from Trump's tariffs, should tilt toward China. I explain why that would be bad for Canada.

substack.com

China is 'very challenging to negotiate with': Former diplomat Michael Kovrig

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

In trade, China and its companies use economic levers that massively distort markets. If Canada opens unconditionally—by dropping duties on EVs, steel and aluminum, in exchange for relief on agri-food—it risks importing China’s economic distortions and hollowing out its economy. Not a good idea.

Former diplomat Michael Kovrig discusses PM Carney’s talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, deepening ties, and the risks of increased trade with China.

www.ctvnews.ca

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

Link to the video segment is below 👇 , followed by a link👇 to an article I wrote that goes into more depth on Canada-China relations. More on my Substack.
#CanadaChina #CarneyLi #MarkCarney #LiQiang #negotiation #TradeWar #ArbitraryDetention

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

CTV News “Power Play” host Vassy Kapelos was invited me on to comment on the Carney-Li meeting and few of the above topics. It was short notice and I spoke off the cuff, focusing on the challenges of negotiating with China. Good to have a news anchor talking with me rather than about me, at least!

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

So agreements will work just as long as the Party thinks it benefits, but they won't stop it from continuing foreign interference, transnational repression, violating human rights, or coercion, when they serve its purposes.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

Canadian negotiators should keep in mind that their CCP counterparts will link issues, are ruthlessly transactional, and won’t feel bound to honour any agreements they sign. Their ethical framework is simply that whatever’s good for the Party is correct.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

That fits with the CCP’s strategy to distract and weaken Western democracies while it works to dominate East Asia, displace the U.S. and reshape the global order in line with its own authoritarian imperatives—all while keeping Western elites complacent about continuing to do business with China.

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

Front of mind should be Beijing’s decisive support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is not only enabling Putin to kill thousands and menace NATO countries, but also costing Canadian taxpayers over a billion dollars.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

While it’s good that Canada and China are talking again, we should have modest expectations for what can be achieved. Even with both sides under pressure from Trump’s tariffs to find new market opportunities, prospects for cooperation are limited by the Party-state’s hostile behaviour.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

To the press, Carney emphasized opportunities to sell China more energy and commodities. He also alluded to the main trade sticking point: Canada’s defensive tariffs to stop the dumping of EVs, steel and aluminum from China, and Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on canola and more. No breakthroughs.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

On Sep. 23 on the sidelines of the UN General Debate, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and China’s Premier Li Qiang led the first substantive in-person discussions the two countries have had at their level since 2017. The dialogue was reportedly relatively frank and constructive.

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

Beijing still hasn’t returned all of my personal property, but at least its senior officials are talking to their Canadian counterparts again.

Is it Safe to Visit China? A Former Detainee’s Warning - The Wire China

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12d

Four years ago this week China’s government released me from 1,019 days of wrongful detention as a political hostage. If not for heroic advocacy and diplomacy, I might still be in a cell there, with the crisis unresolved. I'm eternally grateful for my liberty. 🧵

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Reposted by Michael Kovrig

The Wire China @thewirechina.bsky.social · Jul 30

Is it still safe to visit China? Few are better placed to answer that question than Canadian Michael Kovrig (@kovrig.bsky.social), one of the ‘two Michaels’ who were detained for nearly three years in China.

From exit bans to arbitrary arrests, vague laws, unsubstantiated charges, grueling prison sentences, and secret executions — the risks keep growing.

buff.ly

Michael Kovrig's Strategic Narratives | Substack

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 30

Full article is also available to read on my Substack:

Comment and analysis on the intersection of geopolitics, geoeconomics, global security, strategic communication and human values with a focus on China, the Indo-Pacific and great power rivalry from an...

open.substack.com

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 30

How many foreigners has China detained or subjected to exit bans in the last decade? You may be shocked at the number, diversity and tragedy of the cases I’ve collected. Visits are important to build relationships and correct misperceptions, but travelers need to carefully weigh the personal risks.

Is it Safe to Visit China? A Former Detainee’s Warning - The Wire China

From exit bans to arbitrary arrests, vague laws, unsubstantiated charges, grueling prison sentences, and secret executions — the risks keep growing.

www.thewirechina.com

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 30

Is it safe to visit China? The risks for foreigners keep growing. In a new assessment for @thewirechina.bsky.social, I give an overview of recent incidents, analyze risk factors and advise how to prepare if you still want to travel. How do you assess your own risks? Link in the comments.

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 24

Visiting China? Read relevant travel advisories to understand the risks. Plan for worst-case scenarios. Know someone detained or imprisoned in China? Check out Safeguard Defenders’ new handbook, Missing in China, to learn how to help them.🧵END 7/7

Missing in China

Missing in China offers readers with crucial insights and practical advice to deal with the detention of a loved one in China.

safeguarddefenders.com

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 24

Are the main reasons for executions internal or external? It can be both. Like detentions, bans, and tech dominance, the CCP is making all of its tools dual use. Arrests, trials, sentencing, and executions can all be timed for diplomatic signaling—or not. Ambiguity is part of the gaslighting. 6/7

Report: Deterrence is Based on Certainty of Apprehension, Not Severity of Punishment | Death Penalty Information Center

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 24

For drug enforcement, executions are unnecessary. Research shows that the certainty of being caught and punished is a stronger deterrent than the severity of punishment. Replacing the death penalty with prison sentences would free up money and time wasted on lengthy judicial reviews. 5/7

The certainty of apprehension, not the severity of punishment, is more effective as a deterrent. So argues Daniel S. Nagin ...

deathpenaltyinfo.org

China has carried out death penalty threats against Canadians in the past, Star has learned

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 24

China’s “zero tolerance” drug policy stems from Legalist, Leninist views and the state’s narrative of opium. Officials say that public thirst for vengeance requires the death penalty. That’s a distortion. The main drivers are elite opinion and the imperative to ensure regime survival. 4/7

Robert Lloyd Schellenberg has been sentenced to death for drug trafficking after a one-day trial, according to a statement posted on the website of the Dalian Intermediate People’s Court.

www.thestar.com

Report: Deterrence is Based on Certainty of Apprehension, Not Severity of Punishment | Death Penalty Information Center

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · Jul 24

While capital punishment is declining worldwide, the CCP puts thousands of Chinese people to death each year. It reflects a widening divergence from liberal democracies that spans not only geopolitics, geoeconomics and strategic rivalry, but also political culture and social values. 3/7

The certainty of apprehension, not the severity of punishment, is more effective as a deterrent. So argues Daniel S. Nagin ...

deathpenaltyinfo.org