You nailed it. ‘A not very subtle message to the rest of the committee’ and any future members. This tactic has worked for Trump across institutions.

I always ask myself ‘can this move S&P 500 profits?’ If the answer is ‘no’, and for most geopolitical events the answer is ‘no’, then it should not matter to equities and any negative market reaction is an opportunity to buy the geopolitical risk premium.

My 3 main takeaways:

- Buy-side sentiment stays bullish, but without pushing to new highs

- The “Buy Europe” theme is losing steam

- Gold and Euro both close to maximum bullishness

All the Charts & Analysis at Sentiment-Matters

Since the heydays of the euro crisis

And will Treasuries stay the risk free rate?

- Current message: Surprisingly, no signs of extreme bullishness in the data; non-commercial positions are net short.

- The bad: Overall, few reliable signals, limited history, and inconsistent performance.

- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.

- What is it: Similar to my FX Sentiment Heatmap, I analyse CFTC positioning data for Bitcoin across investor groups, including net long positions and their percentage of open interest.

- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.

You supposed to buy low, sell high 😂

Not one of my TopTier indicators, but it has a decent track record. Equities have performed worst when consumers have been most bullish.

The base line for sell-side 12 months index targets is 10%, which is exactly where these are at. So average bullishness.