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Aaron K

@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social

190 followers 180 following 360 posts

Stars fan, data fan, handle to the tune of "Radio Free Europe" He/him https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/

puckovertheglass.substack.com

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · Dec 19

New post: Something Strange Is Going On with the NHL’s Play-By-Play

Looking at changes in shot locations and scorekeeper bias and a guess at what’s behind the change

open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Something Strange Is Going On with the NHL's Play-By-Play

The Box Scores, They Are A-Changin'

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Aaron K

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 12h

New season, new NHL EDGE landing page! The NHL has updated both the UI and the backend for their EDGE stats, converting the data transfer from a web socket message/response system to API endpoints

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 10h

I wrote a 15 page paper on Gödel's incompleteness theorem in about 7 hours (2am-9am-ish) and to this day cannot explain what the theorem is. I got a B.

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 11h

Yeah, the decision to go with web sockets at first was bizarre, very glad they switched to an API

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 12h

where the season is the 8 digit season code (i.e., 20252026 for the current season) and the session is 2 for the regular season, 3 for the playoffs

it looks like prior seasons are also accessible via the API, but the game-by-game skating distance has been lost in the conversion

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 12h

- skating distance: api-web.nhle.com/v1/edge/skater-skating-distance-detail/api_id/season/session
- zone time: api-web.nhle.com/v1/edge/skater-zone-time/api_id/season/session
- shot location: api-web.nhle.com/v1/edge/skater-shot-location/api_id/season/session

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 12h

For anyone interested, the endpoints for skaters are (https):
- shot speed: api-web.nhle.com/v1/edge/skater-shot-speed-detail/api_id/season/session
- skating speed: api-web.nhle.com/v1/edge/skater-skating-speed-detail/api_id/season/session

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 12h

New season, new NHL EDGE landing page! The NHL has updated both the UI and the backend for their EDGE stats, converting the data transfer from a web socket message/response system to API endpoints

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 2d

I honestly think it's even simpler than that. Elections are at the end of the year, so people just remember "Biden/Harris 2020" and don't realize he didn't take office till 2021

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3d

Yeah, I had a few evangelical friends as well, and I don't remember them or their parents ever talking about the rapture and definitely not supporting Israel to bring it about. Though to be fair, that's not a common topic for 12 year olds

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3d

I also had one high school teacher tell us Islam was inspired by Satan, so there's definitely some of that thrown in there too. But the rapture seems like a niche motivation to me

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 3d

Growing up Catholic in the south, I think a lot of the support from people I know is based on the idea "Jews were the Chosen People. They're like Christians who just don't believe in Jesus, so we should support them"

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 4d

Looks like he's only taken two in games that count (regular/playoffs) and none last season

Reposted by Aaron K

Louis Boulet @louisboulet.bsky.social · 4d

Top 50 Projected Players for 2025-26 by SPAR: 31 to 40

A slew of RWs leads this section, including some from the next wave in Jarvis & Boldy. Meanwhile, Josi looks to bounce back from injury and prove he’s still one of the most dynamic dmen out there.

📈 lb-hockey.com

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Reposted by Aaron K

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 10d

New post: Introducing RAPM for transition stats. Which players are pushing the puck up ice driving creating more time in the offensive zone? It turns out play on entries has a far greater impact that play on exits.

open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Introducing RAPM for Transition Statistics

Which players drive zone entries and exits with possession?

open.substack.com

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 9d

I was trying so hard to come up with a rhyme for ziggurat, this is brilliant

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 9d

From irrigation to consubstantiation

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Reposted by Aaron K

Louis Boulet @louisboulet.bsky.social · 9d

Top 10 Projected Players by Position for 2025-26: Defencemen

Quinn Hughes begins the season as the Norris favourite for 2025-26. Dallas is the only team with multiple showings here, with Harley at 10th and Heiskanen in the top 5.

📈 lb-hockey.com

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 10d

Introducing RAPM for Transition Statistics

Which players drive zone entries and exits with possession?

open.substack.com

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 11d

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. He's 49th among D, so still very good. I'm looking at a rate stat, so the massive minutes he played could explain the difference. Could also be a team/coaching effect that I'm not capturing

Love the viz!

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 11d

FWIW, my top 10 for 2024-25 is:
McDavid
Barron
MacKinnon
Bouchard
Q. Hughes
Aho (F)
Orlov
LaCombe
Tage
Ekholm

13. J. Hughes
15. Draisaitl
37. Eichel
63. Makar
85. Werenski
183. Celebrini (still extremely impressive for a rookie)

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 11d

Interesting sounds very similar, actually! I looked at entries & exits w/ poss (ctrl'd entries/recovered dumpins & ctrl'd/passing exits) separately and combined compared to o-zone percentage and exits were basically uncorrelated, but entry RAPM was significantly better than any individual microstat

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 11d

What microstats are included in the transition scores? I've been playing around with RAPM for entries/exits (write-up to come), and my results are in agreement for the most part, but much lower on Celebrini, Makar, and Werenski

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 14d

Erm.. sing in me muse, and through me tell the story

Reposted by Aaron K

Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 19d

It appears the NHL has spent some time standardizing its shift reports over the past few seasons. Short OTF shifts (10 seconds or less starting and ending OTF without a stoppage in between) have steadily dropped over each of the last three seasons to just over 50% of the previous rate

bar chart showing short on the fly shifts per 60 minutes per season. starting in 2022-23 they drop by almost 0.5 fewer shifts per 60 each season

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Aaron K @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social · 19d

What's really interesting is there seems to have been a concerted effort to clean things up over the past few seasons. I'd think the impact on public models is vanishingly small, so this is more a curiosity than anything else, but I hadn't seen this written up anywhere before now