Super helpful in answering my questions. It sounds like the problem isn't with consumer confidence for economic/mkt analysis as it is with Michigan specifically. Was wondering if it wasn't helpful in same way as past and what that could mean but sounds like that's not even relevant (probably).

Guess I'm not working hard enough.

26-28 is going to be wall to wall hearings with administration and possibly tech companies. That said, highly likely large Tech smart enough to hedge their bets and support 2026 blue wave buying get out of jail free card.

Why are people so fired up about this +/or why are people even talking about it? I read it and slipshod/doomer/clickbait made it clear it was pretty worthless. I give him a little credit emphasizing some aspects of the lower income deciles that I don't often see discussed.

Two years until demographic headwinds kick in.

Another impediment related to illiqudity is pre-GFC, GSEs used balance sheet to help stabilize spreads. Very much a matter of opinion on whether Fed is/will continue to support fixed spreads but they did in past and never directly purchased agency ARMs.

People choose ARMs as an affordability product and attractiveness (mkt share) really takes off between 50-100 bps. We're not there yet. Also, ARM very illiquid, most bank desk don't have dedicated ARM trader - pretty much every one did pre GFC. Will feed off each other at some point.

So so far to go.

Really hysterical, isn't it?

Maybe it will take Lutnick to really get it done!

That 10 year product isn't that different from a duration perspective that fixed (for investor). You really need to compare vs 5/1 or 7/1.

Too lilttle liquidity in ARMs market right now. 20 years ago, every firm had a dedicated ARMs trader - now 0.

The basis trade seems like it will be a convenient scape goat. I expect Fed to come in with BTFP or something to ensure liquidity is more than addressed to limit eventual finger pointing at Fed.

Great charts. It's interesting to consider if this keeps GSEs from fulfilling mandate or if it just limits effectiveness of monetary policy.

Employment less of a limit on capacity than it used to be but still a valid question.

Disintermediated is true but suggests similar cost of capital which is not true.

Public is lower cost of capital offset by higher costs of going/being public.

There are so many other factors of course.

I expect it's won't be like 2007 with lots of early signs that gave 6+ months to exit. 2000 more similar to now IMO - when it just kept running and collapsed from exhaustion.

I was probably more clued info banks/shadow banking/leverage risks than housing but I remember listening to other experts and spending much of 2007 waiting for a bust. Was similar manner as late 1999/early 2000 even though financials were in complete different places.

Yes. They are great. No longer travel with noise cancelling headphones on long flights.