Lars Clausen
@larsinthecloud.bsky.social
140 followers 110 following 240 posts
History, culture, warfare, statebuilding, education - and happy trail hiker.
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larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Green men can swim across the Narva river. The video surveillance is not effective against slow infiltration.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
A high-risk area for external influence with bon-kinetic measures.
specialkhersoncat.bsky.social
Russian Gerbera drone casually flies over the Lithuanian capital this morning.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Om numerous occasions since then, genocidal programs have reemerged from the tomb of history.
We’ve had a good dialogue about assessing scenarios, freedom of thought and the failures of modern societies to stop such terrible events.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Only one image resonates with this
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Never again - is today, so the German government argues.
Brought my two kids to Auschwitz today, so they at least will bear witness for another generation, make smarter choices and act ethically informed.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Shows how communication with the UD President is conducted: by social media app.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
“This means peace in our time”

(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Oil markets is the structural coupling linking the regional conflicts and wars. It’s not the oilmprice per se, but secondary effects within the multiple domains of diplomacy and warfare, that is of real interest.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
If the Israel-Iranian conflict leads to a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re at the beginning of a conflict involving all major powers across the globe.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Activate: yes.
Support: yes
Sufficient support: by Nordics, Germany, France, Poland, - less from SW Europe.
Setting the scene for the inverse reaction with the next wave of migration.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Risk pricing on the supply side of - in effect - global oil prices.
maks23.bsky.social
🛢️📈 Not good for us…
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
MS har cloud services hostet i EU. Grundkrav i statslige kontrakter.

Pointen er at hverken Linux eller hosting i EU *i sig selv* er beskyttelse mod nøglen: den ominøse licens og adgang til updates.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Microsoft Azure Linux …. Ved at adskille software fra hosting, kan man fortsætte med Microsoft og udnytte stærke migrationsværktøjer i Azure-cloud.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Here:
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
anderspucknielsen.dk
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
@anderspucknielsen.dk has suggested this for some time now.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
anderspucknielsen.dk
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Here’s a recent suggestion of little green men heading for Narva as a distinct scenario.
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
anderspucknielsen.dk
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)
umland.bsky.social
Unlike @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social, I don't think that Russia would risk a two-front war, as that would be in Ukraine's interest.

A necessary condition for an attack on a NATO country is a partial or full Russian victory over Ukraine.

www.russiamatters.org/blog/would-r...

@russiamatters.bsky.social