You write nothing has changed but latest US spirits volume data shows continued deterioration with some producers even curtailing production (e.g. jim beam) . I guess the market simply doesn’t expect any near term sales and earnings recovery.

Still prefer the ‘30s?

Beke hasn’t worked yet despite the rising secondary market transaction volumes. I guess need the new home sales market to at least stabilize as well.

Lmnr comes to mind

They were issued in April and would represent 16% of currentshares outstandin, if fully exercised. Is it possible the recent drop on share price is somehow connected with the wrts issuance? I guess would have expexted this weakness right after issuance and not 1.5 months later.

Those wrts are interesting. Need 3 wrts for one stock. Look quite undervalued relative to what a simple option model would say, like 60% disc. Maybe it’s the vwap trigger condition which limits early exercise. Cld really take off if it ever gets over the 52 vwap trigger.

At least rate of change isn’t getting worse and co says H2 should see improvements from reinvestmens (I.e. promotions). Also, some of volume contraction is shedding lower margin business which should eventually be good for margins. But still think multiple depends largely on volume growth.

Pep valuation certainly looks attractive but probably needs NA volumes to rise again for stock to work.

Ecuador maturities before 2030 don’t seem to be tradable. Which front end bonds are you looking at, the 0% ‘30s or 5% ‘35s? Tks

If a US recession is followed by a global downturn wouldn’t this cause people to buy USD again since many of EMs (corps and sov) still financed in USD?

Congrats for sticking around. Your accumulated knowledge and experience with the name pays off now.

Kind of crazy this hasn’t popped on the latest update

There was probably still some unresolved hedging activity from the equity offering and this might have been the nearest expiry date.

Good points +a bunch of small acquisitions prob also have more (cost & rev) synergies. It’s a great idea if they can execute on it and I don’t see why they wouldn’t given the team’s track record in doing exactly that. While market size of this opp might be limited it is synergistic & margin positive

He’s now mentioned several times the roll out of a US wide decontamination/cleaning service to start later this year. Makes me think they will have to announce some acquisitions in this space pretty soon.

Plus he meant it global and specifically referred to Latam after they saw LA. Other interesting tidbit was refresh cycle for fire gear likely falling by almost half to avg 3yrs due to frequent decontamination. Benefits them 2x through decontamination service and selling more gear.

I might regret saying this but adding to LAKE felt good at these levels after watching CEO and CFO presentation yesterday. Tariffs not an issue, timely European acquisitions, margin upside through service business, well received capital raise, fire business less cyclical and becoming largest segment

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Yes, please