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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 1d

💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership?

Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.

Mihaela Papa giving a speech on stage with FIIA roll ups in the background.

Lauri Myllyvirta talking to Karoliina Pietarila on stage, both seated.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2d

I'm one of the authors of this work. Great progress with the power sector but lots of challenges with industry and transportation.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2d

Ember has a new great tracker for these exports that provides a lot of detail:
bsky.app/profile/nico...

Nicolas Fulghum @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social · 2d

NEW DATA | China's exports of clean technologies exceeded 20 billion USD for the first time in August📈

We just published a new @ember-energy.org data tool to track exports of EVs, batteries, gridtech etc. on top of our existing tracking of solar exports.

🧵

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2d

EV exports are mostly passenger vehicles, with some pick-up in electric trucks and buses but far behind China's own domestic progress with rolling out electric heavy vehicles.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2d

Asia and Middle East stand out for solar, along with the EU. Big auto producer countries import the most batteries, and EU imports the most EVs, but the most striking thing is how broad-based the exports are.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 2d

China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 6d

There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch

Orders for turbines to power natural gas plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand.

www.bloomberg.com

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 8d

Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️

Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp

Webinar: Experts discuss what China's new climate pledge means for the world - Carbon Brief

Carbon Brief hosts webinar with China climate policy experts to discuss assessments of what the NDC means for China’s emissions pathway.

buff.ly

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

Source for the capacity data:
www.nea.gov.cn/20250926/2e8...

国家能源局发布2025年1-8月份全国电力工业统计数据，风光装机约17亿千瓦---国家能源局

国家能源网

www.nea.gov.cn

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

The change in pricing is happening at a challenging time, with easing power demand and very large amounts of new coal&gas-fired power capacity also coming on. 50GW thermal power was added in Jan-Aug, up from 29GW a year earlier, with well over 100GW expected for the whole year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

The government aims to keep annually added clean power capacity above 200 GW per year in 2026-27, and at an average of 200 GW in the next decade based on the recently announced 2035 climate targets. The hope is that realized growth will continue to substantially exceed these targets.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

One piece of good news is that solar utilization recovered to long-term average in July after tanking during the boom months. I expected that the sharp drop was due to start-up and grid connection pains.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

For wind, the capacity additions in June-August are in fact tracking the pace in the preceding two years. The end of the year is expected to see a substantial amount of large centralized solar and wind projects connected given it's the end of the five-year period.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 8d

China's wind and solar capacity additions have cooled down as expected after the rush in March-May, driven by the change in pricing policy. 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind was added to the grid in August, and 2025 seems comfortably on track to a new annual record.
bsky.app/profile/laur...

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

*2017 supply side structural reform - overcapacity reduction programs in steel, cement, aluminum...
*coal mine closures through 2000s and 2010s
*1990s SoE reform

Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Data for the analysis from the IIASA AR6 scenario database
data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/

IXMP Scenario Explorer developed by IIASA

data.ene.iiasa.ac.at

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

The graphs above reflect the ambiguity about whether China's 2060 carbon neutrality target covers all GHGs or just CO2, with the non-CO2 emissions in the "CO2 neutrality" case based on the average of the 3-degree pathways.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Note that after the slow start implied by China's 2030 and 2035 targets, the emission reduction rates needed to get to carbon neutrality in the 2040s and 2050s are much higher than in the 2-degree and 1.5-degree scenarios. This undermines the credibility of the 2060 target.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Of course, it's quite likely that China will significantly overachieve the 2035 emission target, because maintaining clean energy build rates at anywhere near the levels achieved in 2023-25 will deliver much bigger reductions. But these targets are tempering not driving ambition.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Overall, the highest emission path under China's current&newly announced targets, is aligned with about 2.5 degrees global warming, and would result in about twice as large cumulative emissions as the pathways aligned with Paris agreement (1.5 and 2 degrees).

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

The thing is, what drives climate change is the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted over time. Having much higher emissions than the 2 degree, let alone 1.5 degree, pathways in the next two decades, is hard to make up for later.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 9d

Now that China's new climate targets are out, here's a comparison to IPCC scenarios. The 2030 and 2035 targets are weak even compared to the median of 3-degree scenarios, which would entail devastating climate impacts, but the long-term 2060 target is in line with 2 degrees.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 13d

My reading is that this isn't about how you appear to the outside world but lack of agreement/buy-in among China's policymakers. The implications for the coal industry will be dire if the clean energy boom continues for another decade.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14d

The basic dilemma for China's leaders is: you have to cut either the clean energy industry or the coal industry down to size; both can't continue to grow like they have. These targets just show they still haven't made up their minds, balking at the economic fallout from either.

Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14d

Xi Jinping announced China's new climate targets personally, a positive gesture, but the targets brought little clarity on China’s future emission pathway. Targeting a 7-10% emission reduction by 2035 from an undefined "peak level" undersells China's current clean energy boom.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14d

These targets reflect the setback of major increases in emissions and coal consumption during zero-Covid much more than the current positive trends.

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