Here is the (more reliable) seasonal temperature forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Given that SEAS5 seems to capture well the extreme frequency/duration of GH blocks, if the GH persistence trend happens to be caused by internal variability (or eventually stops), should one still worry about a systematic bias in the seasonal and/or climate models?

More details and plots found here: colab.research.google.com/drive/18sc0I.... The plots have interactive sliders, and you can change the temp and other parameters. (Works best on laptop or tablet).

How does total snowfall depend on the mean and stdev of temp? As spread of T increases, the “optimal” temp for snowfall decreases (since more snow is lost to the warmer tail), from ~-2° to -8°C.

At cold enough T, warming increases snowfall modestly (⬆️ moisture dominates).

With some simplifying assumptions, I use two equations to estimate the change in snowfall (more details in link later)

Here I show how warming from -6±5°C by 1 degree changes snowfall (intensity-weighted frequency). κ = 1.07 (7% more intense per C), c = 1 (Clausius-Clapeyron scale factor)

… precipitation intensity does depend on the temperature.

A warmer atmosphere can “hold” more moisture (roughly 7% per °C). ⬇️ frequency may be compensated by ⬆️ moisture.

How important is each effect? When does warming actually *increase* snowfall?

The success of atmospheric science in recent decades was built on steady, gradual improvements - a silent revolution - as computer models (like WRF, developed at NCAR) advanced & forecast errors declined.
NCAR has played an instrumental role in the development of the entire field. #SaveNCAR
(3/3)

Here’s a video of an interactive tornado exhibit there! (2/3)

agreed, and this might inspire me to share some mediocre GFD jokes (yes, I presented a GFD-themed stand-up comedy at a student seminar)

Sorry to hear this, Zack.