LegendOfZelna
@legendofzelna.bsky.social
#MLS playoff forecast after Round 1:
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
November 10, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#MLS playoff forecast after Round 1:
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
CIN vs MIA seems like the closest round 2 matchup to my model; PHI vs NYC seems like the biggest difference in quality
SD is the home team least likely to advance to the conference finals
#MLS playoff forecast post Round 1, Game 2:
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
November 5, 2025 at 1:31 PM
#MLS playoff forecast post Round 1, Game 2:
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
PHI, VAN & LAFC advance without a game 3
CLT flipped their round 2 fortunes most in game 2, winning on the road and bringing their series back home (+38ppt); NSH & SEA 2nd at +16ppt
NSH is the game 3 road team most favored to advance to round 2
Post Round 1, Game 1 #MLS playoff forecast:
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
October 30, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Post Round 1, Game 1 #MLS playoff forecast:
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
On average, game 1 winners added ~15ppt Rd.1 Win %; the lone road winner (NYCFC) led the way here at +35ppt
📈 PHI & MIA added the most cup win probability in their game 1 wins (+3.7ppt & +1.6ppt)
🐶 CLT is the game 1 loser most likely to advance to Rd.2
Post wildcard #MLS playoff forecast:
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
October 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Post wildcard #MLS playoff forecast:
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
ORL's elimination is good news for PHI (+3.6ppt cup odds, +5.3ppt 1rd win odds) while SD doesn't benefit as much from POR's wildcard win (-0.3ppt cup odds, -0.3ppt 1rd win odds; the SD variance feels like noise between sims here tbh)
The rest are about the same
Last power rankings and a playoff forecast update before the #MLS wildcard round kicks off
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
October 22, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Last power rankings and a playoff forecast update before the #MLS wildcard round kicks off
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
- CIN jumps WAY up the chart from last week (+9ppt MLS cup odds), probably by avoiding ORL in round 1 (a team my model loves despite their dropoff in form of late)
🥤VAN-DAL Leverage on the line:
Dallas can place in
round 1, the wildcard, or out.
Multiverse of fates
Dallas can place in
round 1, the wildcard, or out.
Multiverse of fates
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤VAN-DAL Leverage on the line:
Dallas can place in
round 1, the wildcard, or out.
Multiverse of fates
Dallas can place in
round 1, the wildcard, or out.
Multiverse of fates
🥤STL-RSL Leverage on the line:
Salt Lake’s gateway to
the playoffs is a win in
the Lou this weekend
Salt Lake’s gateway to
the playoffs is a win in
the Lou this weekend
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤STL-RSL Leverage on the line:
Salt Lake’s gateway to
the playoffs is a win in
the Lou this weekend
Salt Lake’s gateway to
the playoffs is a win in
the Lou this weekend
🥤ATX-SJ Leverage on the line:
Austin’s on 6th street
While San Jose need a win
here to party on
Austin’s on 6th street
While San Jose need a win
here to party on
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤ATX-SJ Leverage on the line:
Austin’s on 6th street
While San Jose need a win
here to party on
Austin’s on 6th street
While San Jose need a win
here to party on
🥤POR-SD Leverage on the line:
Give us your tired, your
green, your frog costumed masses
yearning to hop free 🐸
Give us your tired, your
green, your frog costumed masses
yearning to hop free 🐸
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤POR-SD Leverage on the line:
Give us your tired, your
green, your frog costumed masses
yearning to hop free 🐸
Give us your tired, your
green, your frog costumed masses
yearning to hop free 🐸
🥤LAG-MIN Leverage on the line:
The loons begin their
annual migration to
playoff heartbreak here
The loons begin their
annual migration to
playoff heartbreak here
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤LAG-MIN Leverage on the line:
The loons begin their
annual migration to
playoff heartbreak here
The loons begin their
annual migration to
playoff heartbreak here
🥤SKC-HOU Leverage on the line:
Texas BBQ
is better because KC
‘cue needs all that sauce
Texas BBQ
is better because KC
‘cue needs all that sauce
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤SKC-HOU Leverage on the line:
Texas BBQ
is better because KC
‘cue needs all that sauce
Texas BBQ
is better because KC
‘cue needs all that sauce
🥤COL-LAFC Leverage on the line:
The Rapids find their
path to the sea obstructed
by LA traffic
The Rapids find their
path to the sea obstructed
by LA traffic
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤COL-LAFC Leverage on the line:
The Rapids find their
path to the sea obstructed
by LA traffic
The Rapids find their
path to the sea obstructed
by LA traffic
🥤TOR-ORL Leverage on the line:
Orlando teeters
on the edge of the wildcard.
Slip here, and fall in
Orlando teeters
on the edge of the wildcard.
Slip here, and fall in
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤TOR-ORL Leverage on the line:
Orlando teeters
on the edge of the wildcard.
Slip here, and fall in
Orlando teeters
on the edge of the wildcard.
Slip here, and fall in
🥤NYC-SEA Leverage on the line:
Seattle can rest
while a win is New York’s best
shot at the top 4
Seattle can rest
while a win is New York’s best
shot at the top 4
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤NYC-SEA Leverage on the line:
Seattle can rest
while a win is New York’s best
shot at the top 4
Seattle can rest
while a win is New York’s best
shot at the top 4
🥤NE-CHI Leverage on the line:
Chicago can miss
the wildcard grind with a win
and help from elsewhere
Chicago can miss
the wildcard grind with a win
and help from elsewhere
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤NE-CHI Leverage on the line:
Chicago can miss
the wildcard grind with a win
and help from elsewhere
Chicago can miss
the wildcard grind with a win
and help from elsewhere
🥤NSH-MIA Leverage on the line:
Nashville can still earn
A top 4 slot with a win
But need outside help
Nashville can still earn
A top 4 slot with a win
But need outside help
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤NSH-MIA Leverage on the line:
Nashville can still earn
A top 4 slot with a win
But need outside help
Nashville can still earn
A top 4 slot with a win
But need outside help
🥤CLB-NYRB Leverage on the line:
C-bus must win to
have any chance of dodging
the wildcard playoff
C-bus must win to
have any chance of dodging
the wildcard playoff
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤CLB-NYRB Leverage on the line:
C-bus must win to
have any chance of dodging
the wildcard playoff
C-bus must win to
have any chance of dodging
the wildcard playoff
🥤CIN-MTL Leverage on the line:
Cincy finish in
2 or 3 regardless of
result with de Foot
Cincy finish in
2 or 3 regardless of
result with de Foot
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤CIN-MTL Leverage on the line:
Cincy finish in
2 or 3 regardless of
result with de Foot
Cincy finish in
2 or 3 regardless of
result with de Foot
🥤CLT-PHI Leverage on the line:
Philly can rest for
battles to come, while the crown
claims 4th with a win
Philly can rest for
battles to come, while the crown
claims 4th with a win
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🥤CLT-PHI Leverage on the line:
Philly can rest for
battles to come, while the crown
claims 4th with a win
Philly can rest for
battles to come, while the crown
claims 4th with a win
🍿ATL-DCU Leverage on the line:
The wooden spoon lands
heavily upon the brow
of the defeated
The wooden spoon lands
heavily upon the brow
of the defeated
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🍿ATL-DCU Leverage on the line:
The wooden spoon lands
heavily upon the brow
of the defeated
The wooden spoon lands
heavily upon the brow
of the defeated
🍿🍿Eastern Wildcard Race Leverage on the line:
- NSH has an outside shot of being in the wildcard with an L vs MIA
- A loss or draw at TOR puts ORL at risk of slipping to 8th or 9th
- CHI can clinch wildcard HFA with a win or even climb as high as 6th
- CLB need a win and help to host the wildcard
- NSH has an outside shot of being in the wildcard with an L vs MIA
- A loss or draw at TOR puts ORL at risk of slipping to 8th or 9th
- CHI can clinch wildcard HFA with a win or even climb as high as 6th
- CLB need a win and help to host the wildcard
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🍿🍿Eastern Wildcard Race Leverage on the line:
- NSH has an outside shot of being in the wildcard with an L vs MIA
- A loss or draw at TOR puts ORL at risk of slipping to 8th or 9th
- CHI can clinch wildcard HFA with a win or even climb as high as 6th
- CLB need a win and help to host the wildcard
- NSH has an outside shot of being in the wildcard with an L vs MIA
- A loss or draw at TOR puts ORL at risk of slipping to 8th or 9th
- CHI can clinch wildcard HFA with a win or even climb as high as 6th
- CLB need a win and help to host the wildcard
🍿🍿🍿Western Wildcard Race Leverage on the line:
While POR are still potentially at risk of being in this race, I won't consider them here
- A win or draw suits DAL just fine; RSL prefer a win but could live with a draw to make the playoffs
- COL can win or draw to have playoff life, SJ needs a win
While POR are still potentially at risk of being in this race, I won't consider them here
- A win or draw suits DAL just fine; RSL prefer a win but could live with a draw to make the playoffs
- COL can win or draw to have playoff life, SJ needs a win
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🍿🍿🍿Western Wildcard Race Leverage on the line:
While POR are still potentially at risk of being in this race, I won't consider them here
- A win or draw suits DAL just fine; RSL prefer a win but could live with a draw to make the playoffs
- COL can win or draw to have playoff life, SJ needs a win
While POR are still potentially at risk of being in this race, I won't consider them here
- A win or draw suits DAL just fine; RSL prefer a win but could live with a draw to make the playoffs
- COL can win or draw to have playoff life, SJ needs a win
MLS Cup Forecast 🏆:
"If the playoffs started today" PHI figures to be the cup favorite, followed by the top teams from the west, MIA and CIN
Curiously, ORL have the 5th best chance to win the cup per my model; maybe a longshot to watch out for?
"If the playoffs started today" PHI figures to be the cup favorite, followed by the top teams from the west, MIA and CIN
Curiously, ORL have the 5th best chance to win the cup per my model; maybe a longshot to watch out for?
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
MLS Cup Forecast 🏆:
"If the playoffs started today" PHI figures to be the cup favorite, followed by the top teams from the west, MIA and CIN
Curiously, ORL have the 5th best chance to win the cup per my model; maybe a longshot to watch out for?
"If the playoffs started today" PHI figures to be the cup favorite, followed by the top teams from the west, MIA and CIN
Curiously, ORL have the 5th best chance to win the cup per my model; maybe a longshot to watch out for?
Western conf long term outlook 🎱:
VAN the strong favorite to wrap-up 1st place
SD & LAFC tangle for 2nd-3rd while MIN seems headed for 4th
SEA & ATX are your 5th & 6th seeds
POR, DAL, RSL, COL and SJ all have some shot of playing in the wildcard round based on the results this weekend
VAN the strong favorite to wrap-up 1st place
SD & LAFC tangle for 2nd-3rd while MIN seems headed for 4th
SEA & ATX are your 5th & 6th seeds
POR, DAL, RSL, COL and SJ all have some shot of playing in the wildcard round based on the results this weekend
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Western conf long term outlook 🎱:
VAN the strong favorite to wrap-up 1st place
SD & LAFC tangle for 2nd-3rd while MIN seems headed for 4th
SEA & ATX are your 5th & 6th seeds
POR, DAL, RSL, COL and SJ all have some shot of playing in the wildcard round based on the results this weekend
VAN the strong favorite to wrap-up 1st place
SD & LAFC tangle for 2nd-3rd while MIN seems headed for 4th
SEA & ATX are your 5th & 6th seeds
POR, DAL, RSL, COL and SJ all have some shot of playing in the wildcard round based on the results this weekend
Eastern conf long term outlook 🔮:
2-3 likely CIN's, but MIA could sneak past
CLT in the driver's seat for 4th, NYC and NSH lurking
NSH & ORL unlikely but possible to drop into the wildcard spots that are currently CHI & CLB's, who head into the weekend with no possibility of missing the playoffs
2-3 likely CIN's, but MIA could sneak past
CLT in the driver's seat for 4th, NYC and NSH lurking
NSH & ORL unlikely but possible to drop into the wildcard spots that are currently CHI & CLB's, who head into the weekend with no possibility of missing the playoffs
October 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Eastern conf long term outlook 🔮:
2-3 likely CIN's, but MIA could sneak past
CLT in the driver's seat for 4th, NYC and NSH lurking
NSH & ORL unlikely but possible to drop into the wildcard spots that are currently CHI & CLB's, who head into the weekend with no possibility of missing the playoffs
2-3 likely CIN's, but MIA could sneak past
CLT in the driver's seat for 4th, NYC and NSH lurking
NSH & ORL unlikely but possible to drop into the wildcard spots that are currently CHI & CLB's, who head into the weekend with no possibility of missing the playoffs