Leopold Schmertzing
@leo81.bsky.social
Taking a writing break, associate fellow @aies.at, former program head @forumalpbach, @EP_EPRS, team @evamaydell, strategic foresight & security-defence nerd, @SAISHopkins/@univienna alum
These points are also reflected in a recent publication of my colleague Ulf M. Steindl at @aies.at: www.aies.at/publikatione...
Recharging European Defence - European Forum Alpbach 2025
AIES Comment 2025/8 by Ulf M Steindl
www.aies.at
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
These points are also reflected in a recent publication of my colleague Ulf M. Steindl at @aies.at: www.aies.at/publikatione...
20. Be a pillar of a Europe that protects.
With the US leaving and a volatile, multipolar world emerging, Europe needs its citizens pushing for strength and safety. Decision makers sometimes doubt it, but Europeans will defend their home - just as Ukrainians do every day.
With the US leaving and a volatile, multipolar world emerging, Europe needs its citizens pushing for strength and safety. Decision makers sometimes doubt it, but Europeans will defend their home - just as Ukrainians do every day.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
20. Be a pillar of a Europe that protects.
With the US leaving and a volatile, multipolar world emerging, Europe needs its citizens pushing for strength and safety. Decision makers sometimes doubt it, but Europeans will defend their home - just as Ukrainians do every day.
With the US leaving and a volatile, multipolar world emerging, Europe needs its citizens pushing for strength and safety. Decision makers sometimes doubt it, but Europeans will defend their home - just as Ukrainians do every day.
19. Believe in European defence.
It’s right to be weary, but without the support of the European society, defence is meaningless. Don’t vilify universities, companies, or friends working in defence, but start a conversation. If convinced: join in.
It’s right to be weary, but without the support of the European society, defence is meaningless. Don’t vilify universities, companies, or friends working in defence, but start a conversation. If convinced: join in.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
19. Believe in European defence.
It’s right to be weary, but without the support of the European society, defence is meaningless. Don’t vilify universities, companies, or friends working in defence, but start a conversation. If convinced: join in.
It’s right to be weary, but without the support of the European society, defence is meaningless. Don’t vilify universities, companies, or friends working in defence, but start a conversation. If convinced: join in.
The European population should…
18. Inject common sense in the political debate.
A rich and weak Europe is a target. Investing 5% of GDP in security during unpeace prevents investing 50% in a full war. What we do signals determination to the world.
18. Inject common sense in the political debate.
A rich and weak Europe is a target. Investing 5% of GDP in security during unpeace prevents investing 50% in a full war. What we do signals determination to the world.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The European population should…
18. Inject common sense in the political debate.
A rich and weak Europe is a target. Investing 5% of GDP in security during unpeace prevents investing 50% in a full war. What we do signals determination to the world.
18. Inject common sense in the political debate.
A rich and weak Europe is a target. Investing 5% of GDP in security during unpeace prevents investing 50% in a full war. What we do signals determination to the world.
17. Work together: primes, SMEs, startups.
Make cooperation the norm. Don’t wait for politics to pick champions. Find partners, combine knowledge, expand production together.
Make cooperation the norm. Don’t wait for politics to pick champions. Find partners, combine knowledge, expand production together.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
17. Work together: primes, SMEs, startups.
Make cooperation the norm. Don’t wait for politics to pick champions. Find partners, combine knowledge, expand production together.
Make cooperation the norm. Don’t wait for politics to pick champions. Find partners, combine knowledge, expand production together.
16. Produce fast and dirty.
Continuously improve software, field unfinished products, perfect them together with end-users, at home and in Ukraine.
Continuously improve software, field unfinished products, perfect them together with end-users, at home and in Ukraine.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
16. Produce fast and dirty.
Continuously improve software, field unfinished products, perfect them together with end-users, at home and in Ukraine.
Continuously improve software, field unfinished products, perfect them together with end-users, at home and in Ukraine.
The European defence industry should…
15. Finally supply what is needed, trusting Europe will buy it.
In COVID, medtech delivered without waiting for orders. Now Europe needs mass, precision, and innovation. By distributing production in Europe, you will win many allies.
15. Finally supply what is needed, trusting Europe will buy it.
In COVID, medtech delivered without waiting for orders. Now Europe needs mass, precision, and innovation. By distributing production in Europe, you will win many allies.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The European defence industry should…
15. Finally supply what is needed, trusting Europe will buy it.
In COVID, medtech delivered without waiting for orders. Now Europe needs mass, precision, and innovation. By distributing production in Europe, you will win many allies.
15. Finally supply what is needed, trusting Europe will buy it.
In COVID, medtech delivered without waiting for orders. Now Europe needs mass, precision, and innovation. By distributing production in Europe, you will win many allies.
14. Call for and advance a sovereign European capital market.
We need competitive stock exchanges, bold sovereign wealth funds, capital-based pension systems, active banks, and many citizens as investors. Defence also needs investment into ideas, brains, tech, and education.
We need competitive stock exchanges, bold sovereign wealth funds, capital-based pension systems, active banks, and many citizens as investors. Defence also needs investment into ideas, brains, tech, and education.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
14. Call for and advance a sovereign European capital market.
We need competitive stock exchanges, bold sovereign wealth funds, capital-based pension systems, active banks, and many citizens as investors. Defence also needs investment into ideas, brains, tech, and education.
We need competitive stock exchanges, bold sovereign wealth funds, capital-based pension systems, active banks, and many citizens as investors. Defence also needs investment into ideas, brains, tech, and education.
13. Increase their understanding of defence.
Integrate geopolitics and security foresight into strategies. Investing in European defence and resilience shrinks the possibility of hybrid & conventional war, and the massive destruction that comes with it.
Integrate geopolitics and security foresight into strategies. Investing in European defence and resilience shrinks the possibility of hybrid & conventional war, and the massive destruction that comes with it.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
13. Increase their understanding of defence.
Integrate geopolitics and security foresight into strategies. Investing in European defence and resilience shrinks the possibility of hybrid & conventional war, and the massive destruction that comes with it.
Integrate geopolitics and security foresight into strategies. Investing in European defence and resilience shrinks the possibility of hybrid & conventional war, and the massive destruction that comes with it.
European banks & businesses should…
12. Play their part in defending Europe.
Invest in European defence, even if initially risky or unprofitable. Drop exclusion- & dual-use clauses, compliance fears, and ESG myths. Defence startups still struggle to open bank accounts!
12. Play their part in defending Europe.
Invest in European defence, even if initially risky or unprofitable. Drop exclusion- & dual-use clauses, compliance fears, and ESG myths. Defence startups still struggle to open bank accounts!
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
European banks & businesses should…
12. Play their part in defending Europe.
Invest in European defence, even if initially risky or unprofitable. Drop exclusion- & dual-use clauses, compliance fears, and ESG myths. Defence startups still struggle to open bank accounts!
12. Play their part in defending Europe.
Invest in European defence, even if initially risky or unprofitable. Drop exclusion- & dual-use clauses, compliance fears, and ESG myths. Defence startups still struggle to open bank accounts!
11. Reform and harmonise standardisation.
There is a surprising lack of up-to-date and effective standards for old and new platforms at NATO, missing harmonisation with the EU, and increasing fragmentation. Now is the time to fix this.
There is a surprising lack of up-to-date and effective standards for old and new platforms at NATO, missing harmonisation with the EU, and increasing fragmentation. Now is the time to fix this.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
11. Reform and harmonise standardisation.
There is a surprising lack of up-to-date and effective standards for old and new platforms at NATO, missing harmonisation with the EU, and increasing fragmentation. Now is the time to fix this.
There is a surprising lack of up-to-date and effective standards for old and new platforms at NATO, missing harmonisation with the EU, and increasing fragmentation. Now is the time to fix this.
10. Relearn their role in a democratic, audited military-industrial complex.
Develop an equal partnership with European industry, science, and innovators. Make them understand your strategy, demand, and procurement processes. Offer them safe R&D environments.
Develop an equal partnership with European industry, science, and innovators. Make them understand your strategy, demand, and procurement processes. Offer them safe R&D environments.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
10. Relearn their role in a democratic, audited military-industrial complex.
Develop an equal partnership with European industry, science, and innovators. Make them understand your strategy, demand, and procurement processes. Offer them safe R&D environments.
Develop an equal partnership with European industry, science, and innovators. Make them understand your strategy, demand, and procurement processes. Offer them safe R&D environments.
9. Provide long-term, flexible R&D and procurement contracts now.
Take risks on new tech, adapt national doctrines to cooperate with others, simplify procurement, and give up perfect, specialised, gold-plated, nationalised systems.
Take risks on new tech, adapt national doctrines to cooperate with others, simplify procurement, and give up perfect, specialised, gold-plated, nationalised systems.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
9. Provide long-term, flexible R&D and procurement contracts now.
Take risks on new tech, adapt national doctrines to cooperate with others, simplify procurement, and give up perfect, specialised, gold-plated, nationalised systems.
Take risks on new tech, adapt national doctrines to cooperate with others, simplify procurement, and give up perfect, specialised, gold-plated, nationalised systems.
8. Take risks to improve the force.
In an age of unpeace, risk calculations change. Test new systems fast, mix them with legacy platforms, use them in radical new ways. Learn from Ukraine, but find your own ways to win.
In an age of unpeace, risk calculations change. Test new systems fast, mix them with legacy platforms, use them in radical new ways. Learn from Ukraine, but find your own ways to win.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
8. Take risks to improve the force.
In an age of unpeace, risk calculations change. Test new systems fast, mix them with legacy platforms, use them in radical new ways. Learn from Ukraine, but find your own ways to win.
In an age of unpeace, risk calculations change. Test new systems fast, mix them with legacy platforms, use them in radical new ways. Learn from Ukraine, but find your own ways to win.
7. Give open and frank expert advice.
Military leaders and experts were often ignored. Now that you’re listened to: develop a better understanding and connection with those you need to work with. Be bold, be frank, also to yourself.
Military leaders and experts were often ignored. Now that you’re listened to: develop a better understanding and connection with those you need to work with. Be bold, be frank, also to yourself.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
7. Give open and frank expert advice.
Military leaders and experts were often ignored. Now that you’re listened to: develop a better understanding and connection with those you need to work with. Be bold, be frank, also to yourself.
Military leaders and experts were often ignored. Now that you’re listened to: develop a better understanding and connection with those you need to work with. Be bold, be frank, also to yourself.
European militaries should…
6. Stop fixating on what we can’t do without the US.
Design a doable, fast plan for European defence and nuclear & conventional deterrent. Provide forces through conscription, with enough effective equipment and enablers, training, and reserves.
6. Stop fixating on what we can’t do without the US.
Design a doable, fast plan for European defence and nuclear & conventional deterrent. Provide forces through conscription, with enough effective equipment and enablers, training, and reserves.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
European militaries should…
6. Stop fixating on what we can’t do without the US.
Design a doable, fast plan for European defence and nuclear & conventional deterrent. Provide forces through conscription, with enough effective equipment and enablers, training, and reserves.
6. Stop fixating on what we can’t do without the US.
Design a doable, fast plan for European defence and nuclear & conventional deterrent. Provide forces through conscription, with enough effective equipment and enablers, training, and reserves.
5. End the sterile NATO vs EU vs CoW debate.
Europe needs unified decision-making, defence planning, shared capabilities. Let go of old grievances and build a European security architecture that makes war between our democracies impossible and lets us act as one global actor.
Europe needs unified decision-making, defence planning, shared capabilities. Let go of old grievances and build a European security architecture that makes war between our democracies impossible and lets us act as one global actor.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
5. End the sterile NATO vs EU vs CoW debate.
Europe needs unified decision-making, defence planning, shared capabilities. Let go of old grievances and build a European security architecture that makes war between our democracies impossible and lets us act as one global actor.
Europe needs unified decision-making, defence planning, shared capabilities. Let go of old grievances and build a European security architecture that makes war between our democracies impossible and lets us act as one global actor.
4. Solve fragmentation of demand in defence.
Too many governments use new defence money to prop up national industries, driving up costs and killing interoperability. Europe must research, invest, procure and scale together, with unified demand and joint production.
Too many governments use new defence money to prop up national industries, driving up costs and killing interoperability. Europe must research, invest, procure and scale together, with unified demand and joint production.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
4. Solve fragmentation of demand in defence.
Too many governments use new defence money to prop up national industries, driving up costs and killing interoperability. Europe must research, invest, procure and scale together, with unified demand and joint production.
Too many governments use new defence money to prop up national industries, driving up costs and killing interoperability. Europe must research, invest, procure and scale together, with unified demand and joint production.
3. Shift to a worst-case mindset.
Only by planning for the worst can politicians change trajectories, make bold decisions, cut feel-good regulation, and integrate defence across all civilian bureaucracies.
Only by planning for the worst can politicians change trajectories, make bold decisions, cut feel-good regulation, and integrate defence across all civilian bureaucracies.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
3. Shift to a worst-case mindset.
Only by planning for the worst can politicians change trajectories, make bold decisions, cut feel-good regulation, and integrate defence across all civilian bureaucracies.
Only by planning for the worst can politicians change trajectories, make bold decisions, cut feel-good regulation, and integrate defence across all civilian bureaucracies.
2. Be ready and united for provocations now.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
2. Be ready and united for provocations now.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
European politicians should…
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.
December 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
European politicians should…
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.