I think it's -38K for manufacturing and -78K for professional & business services.

Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:

“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

This wouldn't even cover the higher costs the average American family will pay because of tariffs.

$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.

If equity traders are not pricing-in all this tariff chaos, one possibility is they think either the Supreme Court will determine these tariffs are unconstitutional or Congress will eventually, perhaps after the midterms, stop abdicating its responsibilities and reverse these tariffs.

My piece on ABC News this morning.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:

The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...

To regulate commerce with foreign nations...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...

Looming problems from BLS statistics politicization. Social security benefits and many long term labor market contracts are indexed to the CPI. BLS makes the CPI. Recipients care about indexed cost of living increases, a lot.
/1

"Outside recession" is doing a lot of work here. Big revisions aren't unusual during economic turning points.

Looking forward to our new Congressional districts in Illinois.

In the same way your doctor administers various tests and the data from those tests flow in to provide a more complete picture of your health, the BLS gets data that flows in to provide a more complete picture of the health of the economy. Revisions to the diagnosis are common as more data flows in.

The BLS is like going to the doctor for preventive screenings. If there's bad news, you want to know it so you can take early and preventive action...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

It's not as if people won't realize the jobs market is slowing and inflation is rising. But they'll figure out the hard way -- as they're looking for jobs, negotiating wages, shopping for everyday items.

This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...

Thanks to @barrons.com for featuring my op-ed on why the Fed is right to wait before continuing to cut interest rates.

www.barrons.com/articles/fed...

We can already see that these tariffs are raising more revenue for the US Treasury, and pre-tariff import prices haven't fallen, so Americans are the ones paying for these tariffs. It's a consumption tax. And it's a tax that hits lower income consumers harder than higher income consumers.

But this is still bad for US consumers. We can't produce bananas and coffee in the US. We're a labor scarce country. Even if we produce more cars in the US, are we going to do it with more labor or more automation? I don't see a way that the average American benefits from all these tariffs.

I think the "elation" might be that it's just bad rather than catastrophic. 15% effective tariff rates are not as bad as 30%, and Trump originally anchored at 30%.

It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!

cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.

And will all of that sugar be produced in the US or will it be imported from countries subject to 50% tariffs? Because the US can't produce that much sugar.

Thanks to the @bloomberg.com team for having me on this morning. Great conversation about why we're not seeing tariffs having a meaningful impact on consumer prices yet, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear.

youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...

Except for economists -- we're looking for signals on what's happening to prices, discounts, and consumer behavior. This Prime Day might serve as an early indicator.

I think this was the point. By having an April 2nd "Liberation Day" and anchoring on something that was so much worse, what's still objectively a terrible policy for US consumers now seems reasonable by comparison, and markets are paradoxically rallying.

If you're interested in learning more about food deserts and nutritional inequality, @rebeccadiamond.bsky.social has some great research on this, featured here:

www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/center....

Here's the gist of what I shared with Steve:
▪️ Low inc NYC residents don't consume that differently across grocery depts compared with high inc residents.
▪️ While there are food deserts, NYC is so dense and its residents are so mobile that there isn't an issue with access to nutritious foods.