Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com
Mission: To understand & protect the home planet.
Innovator, climate research & communication, social entrepreneur.
Board member Club of Rome NL
Innovator, climate research & communication, social entrepreneur.
Board member Club of Rome NL
Again, it's about natural variability. Comparing the 2023 El Niño to monthly data 3 years later.
No indication of a lower EEI
No indication of a lower EEI
December 16, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Again, it's about natural variability. Comparing the 2023 El Niño to monthly data 3 years later.
No indication of a lower EEI
No indication of a lower EEI
FaIr is a simple climate model and nit the right tool for the job.
Less than useless
Less than useless
December 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
FaIr is a simple climate model and nit the right tool for the job.
Less than useless
Less than useless
As this is the first inadvertent aerosol experiment ever at this scale, we are still learning as more and more data comes in.
This is not just the direct effect, but also feedbacks, of course.
This is not just the direct effect, but also feedbacks, of course.
December 14, 2025 at 3:49 PM
As this is the first inadvertent aerosol experiment ever at this scale, we are still learning as more and more data comes in.
This is not just the direct effect, but also feedbacks, of course.
This is not just the direct effect, but also feedbacks, of course.
We need the "discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face":
bsky.app/profile/leon...
bsky.app/profile/leon...
Heed the 'Stockdale Paradox':
"You have to, on the one hand, never confuse the need for unwavering faith that you will find a way to prevail in the end.
With on the other hand, the discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face.
And we're not getting out of here by Christmas."
"You have to, on the one hand, never confuse the need for unwavering faith that you will find a way to prevail in the end.
With on the other hand, the discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face.
And we're not getting out of here by Christmas."
December 14, 2025 at 2:55 PM
We need the "discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face":
bsky.app/profile/leon...
bsky.app/profile/leon...
This graph by @hausfath.bsky.social falsely suggests we've now experienced most of the shipping desulphurization effects, while NASA CERES data indicates the opposite.
December 14, 2025 at 2:54 PM
This graph by @hausfath.bsky.social falsely suggests we've now experienced most of the shipping desulphurization effects, while NASA CERES data indicates the opposite.
Great visualization.
It seemingly didn't go below it for +1°C after it was reached.
And now Earth's Energy Imbalance is higher than at any time of the previous passing points.
I expect it to increase for 4-5 more months and after that mainly depends on natural variability
bsky.app/profile/leon...
It seemingly didn't go below it for +1°C after it was reached.
And now Earth's Energy Imbalance is higher than at any time of the previous passing points.
I expect it to increase for 4-5 more months and after that mainly depends on natural variability
bsky.app/profile/leon...
10 years after the Paris Agreement, we have reached a '3-year average global temperature anomaly of +1.5°C in 2 or more datasets'!
And we can't blame El Niño for this, as ENSO was on average negative during this period.
The Paris Agreement was doomed from the start..
And we can't blame El Niño for this, as ENSO was on average negative during this period.
The Paris Agreement was doomed from the start..
December 14, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Great visualization.
It seemingly didn't go below it for +1°C after it was reached.
And now Earth's Energy Imbalance is higher than at any time of the previous passing points.
I expect it to increase for 4-5 more months and after that mainly depends on natural variability
bsky.app/profile/leon...
It seemingly didn't go below it for +1°C after it was reached.
And now Earth's Energy Imbalance is higher than at any time of the previous passing points.
I expect it to increase for 4-5 more months and after that mainly depends on natural variability
bsky.app/profile/leon...
Only in a relative sense.
December 13, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Only in a relative sense.
This sums it up:
bsky.app/profile/leon...
bsky.app/profile/leon...
Heed the 'Stockdale Paradox':
"You have to, on the one hand, never confuse the need for unwavering faith that you will find a way to prevail in the end.
With on the other hand, the discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face.
And we're not getting out of here by Christmas."
"You have to, on the one hand, never confuse the need for unwavering faith that you will find a way to prevail in the end.
With on the other hand, the discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face.
And we're not getting out of here by Christmas."
December 13, 2025 at 1:21 PM
This sums it up:
bsky.app/profile/leon...
bsky.app/profile/leon...
Reposted by Leon Simons
We need prepare for 3°C of global warming by 2050, as NASA satellite observations indicate it a possibility.
As Risk = Impact * Probability, the potential impact of billions of deaths makes the probability largely irrelevant.
3/3
As Risk = Impact * Probability, the potential impact of billions of deaths makes the probability largely irrelevant.
3/3
December 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
We need prepare for 3°C of global warming by 2050, as NASA satellite observations indicate it a possibility.
As Risk = Impact * Probability, the potential impact of billions of deaths makes the probability largely irrelevant.
3/3
As Risk = Impact * Probability, the potential impact of billions of deaths makes the probability largely irrelevant.
3/3
Climate models underestimate the rate at which heat accumulates on our planet.
If our cookstove models underestimate heat input, the food burns.
Now it's our planet that's burning.
2/3
If our cookstove models underestimate heat input, the food burns.
Now it's our planet that's burning.
2/3
December 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Climate models underestimate the rate at which heat accumulates on our planet.
If our cookstove models underestimate heat input, the food burns.
Now it's our planet that's burning.
2/3
If our cookstove models underestimate heat input, the food burns.
Now it's our planet that's burning.
2/3