Dr Liam Brierley
@liambrierley.bsky.social
350 followers 550 following 41 posts
Virologist, statistician, and science presenter. Runs @vibelab.co.uk Research Fellow at @cvrinfo.bsky.social Ambassador for @royalstatsoc.bsky.social Five parts emerging virus epi, two parts R/compsci, ten parts caffeine. he/him 🏳️‍🌈♾
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liambrierley.bsky.social
You can when smartass titles become a tickbox in the CRediT author taxonomy 😁
liambrierley.bsky.social
This is the 2nd preprint to come from collaboration between @thepandemicinst.bsky.social @livuniresearch.bsky.social & CSL Seqirus, supported by @baylism.bsky.social & Joaquin Mould.

We hope this work can help risk assess new bird flu strains and flag key mutations in the wild!

#preprint #avianflu
liambrierley.bsky.social
This stack is able to correctly predict zoonotic potential of sequences in entirely unseen subtypes with AUC=0.95 and F1=0.90, a level of generalisability that is not often seen for machine learning host predictors.

Interestingly, it flags some duck H4 viruses from Americas as having distinct risk.
A dotplot showing predicted zoonotic probability for all test sequences, which represent 13 subtypes in total. There are blue bird-only sequences toward the left, which generally cluster below the threshold for zoonotic prediction, and red confirmed zoonotic sequences on the right which show subtype specific patterns. Human zoonotic H5N1 sequences are predicted with consistent confidence, all just over the threshold to be considered zoonotic, while H7N9 shows much more variability with a fraction of sequences being misclassified as not zoonotic, and a fraction being classified correctly with extremely strong confidence. Of note is that most sequences of rare spillover events (<10 sequences available, like H10N8 and H3N8) were correctly classified with middling confidence. Highlighted and annotated are also three bird origin sequences that are distinctly higher in predicted zoonotic risk than all other sequences of their same subtypes. They are: H4N6 A/American black duck/New Brunswick/00499/2010, H4N6 A/yellow-billed teal/Argentina/CIP051-91/2011, and H4N8 A/American black duck/New Brunswick/02375/2007.
liambrierley.bsky.social
Training on 12 feature sets over each of 8 segments, we find protein properties are usually best at estimating zoonotic potential from a single segment.

But what about whole genomes? We can combine the best models in a single trained meta-learner (or "stack"), that draws on info from all of them!
A heatmap showing how well each modelled combination of feature set and gene/protein predicted zoonotic potential. Protein features showed slightly higher AUC across the board, while the strongest gene/proteins for zoonotic prediction were PB2, PB1, HA, NP, and NS1. We tried five different algorithms, and each was kept at least once, but the best performing algorithms were usually RF (random forests) or XGB (XGBoost).
liambrierley.bsky.social
We extracted ~19000 influenza sequences from birds and ~600 zoonotic sequences from humans (only non-seasonal subtypes).

Before training, we remove redundancy by grouping similar sequences into clusters. This is important to reduce bias, as most come from just a few subtypes like H7N9 and H5N1.
Histogram over time of the most common avian flu subtypes in our dataset by sequence frequency. Most zoonotic sequences are from H5N1 and H7N9, and peak around 2005-2015. Avian sequences are more mixed and feature many more subtypes including H9N2, H3N8, H10N7, and H5N1, all at highly variable frequencies over time.
liambrierley.bsky.social
Lots of ML models can predict human spillover. However for influenza this task is harder because of a) genome segmentation, and b) strong signal within subtype or lineage.

We planned a model training architecture to handle this, ensuring predictions are rooted in virus biology, not shared ancestry.
Model training diagram emphasising we hold out an entire subtype of avian influenza during training in order to make unbiased predictions on it, and that we use multiple algorithms, multiple feature sets, and all eight segments to train models
Reposted by Dr Liam Brierley
liambrierley.bsky.social
That'll be St Elmo - same chap who gives his name to the nautical fire!
Reposted by Dr Liam Brierley
colincarlson.bsky.social
Virus researchers! Please consider participating in this project - it would be a huge help to our lab, and we think it'll lead to some really exciting synthesis. Plus, you'll get an invitation to participate in a workshop later in the project! 🦠😷
haileyrobertson.bsky.social
🧬🦠🌍 What are the big, cross-scale questions shaping the ecology and evolution of emerging viruses?

@torrelavelle.bsky.social and I are building a list of 100 questions + want your input. Help map the future of EEID — fill out & share our short survey!

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liambrierley.bsky.social
What is this nightmare of flesh
liambrierley.bsky.social
If I had a nickel for every consecutive year we've had janky 3D-rendered big cats, I'd only have two nickels but it's weird it's happened twice.
liambrierley.bsky.social
I'm only able to join ViBioM virtually (thank you @evbc.bsky.social for making this available!!) but some fantastic talks from the @systemsvirology.bsky.social lab who are innovately retraining protein language models to infer virus evolution, antigenicity, and epi! おめでとうございます
liambrierley.bsky.social
So much #scicomm in Glasgow in the next month!

Talks in a pub? ✔️ - @pintofscience.uk: pintofscience.co.uk/events/glasgow

Family activities? - ✔️ Glasgow Science Festival: www.gla.ac.uk/events/scien...

and my (biased) fave - Science comedy??? - ✔️ Bright Club: www.thestand.co.uk/performance/...
liambrierley.bsky.social
(I know it's the same guy cause the photocopy always caught his shirt cuff in the scan)
liambrierley.bsky.social
I was tracing the first human reports of every RNA virus in my PhD and I quickly learned about interlibrary loans!

Any uni library can make a request for a paper for you, usually I'd get pdfs, sometimes hardcopies, sometimes even photocopies from a guy at the British library who wore funky shirts.
liambrierley.bsky.social
Last day for abstract submission to present your work at the 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗴𝗼𝘄 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 and connect with researchers across all directions of virology! We would love to have more representation and contributions from ECRs and students!

Abstracts info in link below!
Reposted by Dr Liam Brierley
sbohvm.gla.ac.uk
🎓Big Congratulations to Dr Hollie French for passing her Viva yesterday! 🎉

📄Thesis: ‘Genomic Surveillance and Biogeography of Vampire Bat Rabies in Central America and Mexico.’ 🦇🦠and thank you to her supervisor:
@danielstreicker.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr Liam Brierley
thijskuiken.bsky.social
The UK’s Chief Veterinary Officer has confirmed a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in a single sheep in Yorkshire following repeat positive milk testing.

To my knowledge, this is the first time the virus has been detected in sheep.

www.gov.uk/government/n...
Influenza of avian origin confirmed in a sheep in Yorkshire
Influenza of avian origin (H5N1) has been confirmed in a single sheep in Yorkshire.
www.gov.uk
Reposted by Dr Liam Brierley
royalstatsoc.bsky.social
We love to hear about about the amazing work of our William Guy Lecturers in bringing stats to young people!

Want to inspire the next generation with a talk about stats and AI?

There's still time to apply for our 2025/26 lectureship 👉 rss.org.uk/news-publica...
marygregory.bsky.social
Had a really enjoyable morning @ri-science.bsky.social doing an extended workshop version of my @royalstatsoc.bsky.social William Guy Lecture. It’s a great way to finish my activities for #BritishScienceWeek!