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Reposted by Maria Berlin

Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @sitestockholm.bsky.social · 2d

📢 Call for Papers: 'The Economics of Inequality and the Environment'! @freenetwork.bsky.social and SITE invite submissions from economics, political science, and related fields.

⏳Deadline: 15 Oct (papers or extended abstracts).
💡Learn more and how to submit your paper: tr.ee/lw8ahh

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Reposted by Maria Berlin

The Economist @economist.com · 3d

Vladimir Putin is waging a grey-zone campaign against Europe. He is trying to achieve three things, and he needs to fail at all of them

Vladimir Putin is testing the West—and its unity

NATO must resist Russia’s efforts to corrode it from within

econ.st

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 6d

Working on topics of Inequality and the #environment ? Join @sitestockholm.bsky.social
workshop on Nov 28! Deadline October 15.

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Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @sitestockholm.bsky.social · 7d

On Sep 30, Russia submitted its new state budget, behind the numbers was a battered war economy.
How did Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine shape its finances and daily life?

💡 @lilleberlin.bsky.social (Researcher, SITE) shared key insights (in Swe): www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/hur-...

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Reposted by Maria Berlin

Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) @sitestockholm.bsky.social · 9d

Despite sanctions, SKF components worth hundreds of millions SEK have entered Russia since the war began — often via third countries. "These parts are critical to Russia's war industry," says @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, Director of SITE.

💡Learn more (in Swe): www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Rz...

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Reposted by Maria Berlin

Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

The ban on imports of russian LNG announced with the 19th sanctions package is very welcome! Here's what the situation looks like and what we should be on the lookout for ⬇️🧵

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

The secondary market for LNG vessels should be closely monitored. Transshipments should be explicitly banned. Finally, the sanctions are not a call to replace 🇷🇺 LNG with other fossil fuels. Faster progress on energy efficiency and green transition is an excellent complement.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

A price cap could serve as a transitional measure. It would limit revenues during the adjustment period and prevent frontloading of Russian profits. Unlike oil, Russia would struggle to circumvent such a cap, due to lack of shipping capacity and technological constraints.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Now, to what should be done more. The embargo is announced far in advance, starting jan 2027, as LNG market is shaped by long-term contracts. Therefore Russia may benefit from excess earnings before it takes effect.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Compared to what happened with the oil embargo, LNG is harder to reroute, and there's no "shadow fleet" of old tankers available to bypass sanctions. LNG tankers are a newer, more specialized technology, in high global demand. Not many outdated vessels lying around to be coopted.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Exporting LNG to China is theoretically an option, but logistically difficult and costly. The preferred Arctic route via the Baltic Sea is only usable with ice-class vessels—of which Russia owns just 15.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Russia is more dependent on the West for LNG than the West is on Russia. An estimated 93% of Russian LNG exports rely on G7+ maritime services for transport. Russia strived to become a global leader in LNG since 2019. But it still lacks the shipping capacity.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

But not all imported LNG is actually consumed in the EU. Around 22% is re-exported outside the EU gas system—meaning it's not driven by internal need but by commercial or strategic considerations.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Countries like Spain, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands remain significantly dependent on Russian LNG. Some of them have even increased imports compared to pre-war levels.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have surged. While new suppliers have entered the picture, LNG volumes from Russia have not decreased. In some cases, they've even grown.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 16d

The ban on imports of russian LNG announced with the 19th sanctions package is very welcome! Here's what the situation looks like and what we should be on the lookout for ⬇️🧵

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · 26d

European taxpayers have shown remarkable solidarity with Ukraine—but footing Russia’s bill isn’t the only option. There is an alternative. Listen to this important discussion (in Swedish). 🎧🇸🇪https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdE7xiO4ZSk
@torbjornbecker.bsky.social at minute 36.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

The Effect of Targeted Sanctions on the Russian Shadow Fleet

Yevgeniy Golovchenko @golovchenko.bsky.social · Aug 28

1/ I just uploaded a preprint on targeted sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

The results suggest that the most recent sanctions are working: the sanctioned fleet is still active, but in a much more limited capacity.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

Thank you for sharing!

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

“The economy may and are likely to decline in 2025,” Inosemtsev told The Moscow Times.

Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

The excess of funds that was used to stimulate the economy is exhausted, says economist Vladislav Inozemtsev. To continue to support the military industry, the authorities will have to raise taxes and withdraw resources from the civilian sectors, and this will slow down growth, he explains.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

The IMF predicts a slowdown to the Russian economy from 0.3% a year earlier, and economists polled by the HSE to 1.2%. The Central Bank forecasts growth this year at 1-2%, and next year - only 0.5-1.5%.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

If the Kremlin decides to prolong the war, “additional tough sanctions” likely targeting the energy sector could trigger a downturn in the economy, считаетshe said.
The Ministry of Economic Development, which initially expected GDP growth this year by 2.5%, lowered the forecast to 1.5%.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

an increase in interest rates and growing business problems. The economy is now “balancing on the verge of recession,” said Tatiana Orlova, the leading economist for emerging markets Oxford Economies.

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Maria Berlin @lilleberlin.bsky.social · Aug 29

says Liam Peach, senior economist at emerging markets at Capital Economics. More than 20 trillion rubles, which the state distributed to military, contractors and defense plants, gave rise to the illusion of wealth. But the reckoning came in the form of a surge in inflation,

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