lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes
@lmnovaes.bsky.social
970 followers 370 following 74 posts
Associate professor, Insper. Political economy, comparative politics. UC Berkeley grad. www.lucasmnovaes.com
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 8d
ah yes powell 2004
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 9d
Word of caution: the push to win votes on the pervasive anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America did not go well. OC is different, but likely the Dems would end up carried away by the anti-establishment wave (the PSDB - major national player in Brazil since 1994 is all but gone)
adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 13d
I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…

—Top Public Worry: Corruption

—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption

—Top fear: Corruption

—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”

It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
Top 10 American Fears of 2024 (Chapman Survey) Horizontal bar chart ranking the top fears of Americans (percentage “afraid” or “very afraid”): 1. Corrupt government officials (65.2%, top fear for years). 2. Loved ones becoming seriously ill (58.4%). 3. Cyberterrorism (58.3%). 4. Loved ones dying (57.8%). 5. Russia using nuclear weapons (55.8%). 6. Not having enough money for the future (55.7%). 7. U.S. becoming involved in another world war (55.0%). 8. North Korea using nuclear weapons (55.0%). 9. Terrorist attack (52.7%). 10. Biological warfare (52.5%). Red bars display percentages; small arrows indicate change from 2023 rankings. Top Public Worries in the U.S. (Yale & GMU poll, May 2025) Stacked bar chart of worries among U.S. adults. Categories ranked by share “very worried”: • Government corruption (54% very worried, top issue). • Other leading concerns: cost of living (48%), the economy (47%), state of democracy (44%), disruption of federal services (44%), cultural/social divisions (36%), treatment of immigrants (35%), global warming (29%), crime (26%). • Lower worries include job security (17%), health (16%), and being targeted because of identity/beliefs (15%). Green shades show “very/somewhat worried,” yellow/orange shades show “not very/not at all worried. Perceptions of Federal Government Problems (AP-NORC poll) Bar chart showing the percentage of U.S. adults who consider various issues in the federal government to be a major problem, minor problem, or not a problem. • Corruption: Overall 70% major, 22% minor, 7% not a problem. Higher among Republicans (78%) than Democrats (63%). • Inefficiency: 65% major overall, with Republicans (81%) much higher than Democrats (55%). • Red tape (bureaucracy): 59% major overall, with Republicans (73%) higher than Democrats (47%). • Civil servants unwilling to implement president’s agenda: More partisan split—Republicans 56% major problem, Democrats 20% major problem; overall 34% major, 36% minor, 28% not a problem. Title: “Majority of the public believe corruption, inefficiency, and red tape are major problems in the federal government. Word Cloud of How People Describe American Government (Berkeley Democracy Policy Lab) Large central word: “Corrupt.” Other prominent words: Broken, Chaotic, Dysfunctional, Shit, Clueless, Divided, Inefficient, Crooked, Hijacked, Justice, Woke, Bloated, Untrustworthy, Hopeless, Frustrated, Disastrous, Messy, Sneaky, Turmoil, Delusional. Smaller scattered words include both negative and neutral terms such as Crap, Important, Poder, Resilient, Unfocused, Needs Help. Visual emphasizes “Corrupt” as the dominant public perception.
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Reposted by Lucas Novaes
jfbonnefon.bsky.social
Jean-François Bonnefon @jfbonnefon.bsky.social · 18d
It's hiring season at @iast.fr!

- 2y research postdoc contract
- Full autonomy, you are your own PI
- Awesome multidisciplinary environment
- All social and behavioral sciences welcome
- Seed funding for projects and workshops
- Gorgeous city in the south of France

www.iast.fr/research-fel...
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 19d
(or critical of the FCC chairman's statements.)
lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 19d
First, that is not a lot of tweets. Second, the tweets could have been coming from both sides - some could be critical of Kimmel's suspension while using these keywords. Then it goes on to cherry-pick a handful of tweets.

Really flimsy evidence of "furor".
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 19d
This is incredibly sloppy work. There is absolutely no evidence here that Kimmel's suspension enjoys widespread support:

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/19/t...
How Outrage at Kimmel Grew to a Shout From a Whisper
www.nytimes.com
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 21d
might be of interest: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence From the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election - Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, Luis Meloni, Lucas M. Novaes, 2024
We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in...
journals.sagepub.com
lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 24d
What sic-fi dystopian movie had this on a news ticker headline?

on.ft.com/3InqWsC AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield
AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield
The latest iteration of flying robot warfare, unmanned weapons co-ordinate to overwhelm enemy defences
on.ft.com
lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 27d
it is
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 27d
There is a dilemma at the WH right now. Carrying out the threat of retaliation or maintaining the current news cycle?
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · Jun 26
Mas daí pq as seleções de Argentina e Brasil são tão diferentes? Pode ser ruído e em alguns anos isso se reverta. Mas caso não seja, o q poderia explicar?
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · Jun 26
still puzzled
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cpsjournal.bsky.social
Comparative Political Studies @cpsjournal.bsky.social · Jun 3
(2) "Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence From the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election" by Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, Luis Meloni @luismeloni.bsky.social , and Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Reposted by Lucas Novaes
elinhas.bsky.social
Elinhas @elinhas.bsky.social · May 28
O resultado da pesquisa nesse pique:
Caixa de comentários do G1: Pedro Henrique: comunista não gosta de trabalhar mesmo Gustavo Scarponi: vai falar que vc gosta? Pedro Henrique: tb não gosto não
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 28
Valeu, Filipe!
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 28
The UCKG has also acted strategically, placing more branches where it can better reap political dividends. Such reforms may have a national impact. The Evangelical caucus in the Brazilian Congress has become a powerful interest group, standing on a solidifying local base.
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 28
The party became stronger. The study reveals how reforms alter party strategy. In a party system with weak parties, the partnership with the UCKG's centralized structure & grassroots network turned the Republicano's ticket more valuable: Their candidates refrained from switching parties.
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 28
Using a municipal-level reform that imposed stricter campaign spending limits, the research finds that Republicanos, with the backing of the UCKG, strategically increased candidate entry and achieved greater electoral success where caps were tighter. No such luck for others.
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 28
In a just-accepted paper at the @thejop.bsky.social , @MelaniCammett, Guadalupe Tuñon, and I examine how campaign finance reforms have unanticipated effects: organized actors gain an edge. In our case, the Universal Kingdom of God Church in Brazil.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Special Interest Trade-Offs: Campaign Finance Reforms and Religious Influence in Politics in Brazil | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · May 21
I love how the federal police uncovered russian assets with the bread and butter of social science in Brazil: merging inconsistent datasets.
To find these ghosts, agents began looking for patterns in millions of birth records, passports, driver’s licenses and social security numbers. Some of that could be automated, but not all Brazilian databases can be easily linked and searched digitally. Much of it had to be done by hand.
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · Apr 25
Why is Brazil's national squad so bad? Are we just better at retaining talent?

(These are Libertadores champions.)
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skytteprize.bsky.social
Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science @skytteprize.bsky.social · Apr 23
Herbert P. Kitschelt is the winner of the 2025 Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science. 🏆

He is awarded the prize for " having increased knowledge of the functioning of democratic party systems with exquisite theoretical acuity and impressive empirical breadth and depth."
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lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com
lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · Apr 15
guy who misses "old san francisco" before it "sold out" but is clearly just remembering the car chase sequence from The Rock
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lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · Apr 9
maybe i should had been a financial analyst after all bsky.app/profile/bert...
lmnovaes.bsky.social
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · Apr 7
I am no financial analyst but when DJT sees this swing over a rumor, he will make the rumor true.
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ryanhatesthis.bsky.social
Ryan Broderick @ryanhatesthis.bsky.social · Apr 9
So from my uniquely weird perspective after living in the UK through Brexit, being in India during Modi's demonetization, and living in Brazil when the real tanked during the Bolsonaro administration, I can confidentally say that Americans do not and can not understand how bad this is going to be.
bgrueskin.bsky.social
Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · Apr 9
Every damned word of this 4-graf brief, except “By WSJ Staff,” should scare the bejeesus out of you this morning.

www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
= WSJ Dollar Confidence Crisis Is Here, Deutsche Bank Warns By WSJ Staff The broad selloff in U.S. stocks and bonds, and the continuing decline in the dollar, represents a "simultaneous collapse in the price of all U.S. assets," analysts at Deutsche Bank said Wednesday. They warned that "unchartered territory" lies ahead. • Markets are dedollarizing, they said, citing the lack of evidence that investors are hoarding dollar liquidity- a dynamic that in previous market routs fueled Treasury and U.S. dollar rallies but this time is leading to declines in the prices of both. • The administration is encouraging the Treasury selloff, they said, in a bid to bring down U.S. asset valuations-a decision they said now is exposing the fact that "reducing bilateral trade imbalances is functionally equivalent to lowering demand for U.S. assets as well." • A financial war with China could lie ahead, they conclude, contending that "there is little room now left for an escalation on the trade front" and that "there can be no winner to such a war."
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