Liam
@lrbatman1945.bsky.social
Political stats from a neurodivergent leftie in NZ
And then Rangitikei.
National newcomer Suze Redmayne succeeds Ian McKelvie, beating former Labour councilor Zulfiqar Butt. ACT's Andrew Hoggard joins on the list.
This heavily rural electorate goes well for National and the right, a swing right of almost 14%
National newcomer Suze Redmayne succeeds Ian McKelvie, beating former Labour councilor Zulfiqar Butt. ACT's Andrew Hoggard joins on the list.
This heavily rural electorate goes well for National and the right, a swing right of almost 14%
January 4, 2026 at 7:27 AM
And then Rangitikei.
National newcomer Suze Redmayne succeeds Ian McKelvie, beating former Labour councilor Zulfiqar Butt. ACT's Andrew Hoggard joins on the list.
This heavily rural electorate goes well for National and the right, a swing right of almost 14%
National newcomer Suze Redmayne succeeds Ian McKelvie, beating former Labour councilor Zulfiqar Butt. ACT's Andrew Hoggard joins on the list.
This heavily rural electorate goes well for National and the right, a swing right of almost 14%
First is Otaki.
After being beaten in 2020, Tim Costley regains the seat for National, unseating Labour newcomer Terisa Ngobi.
It's a win for National and the right bloc on party vote, but only an 11.4% swing as Labour's vote holds up a little better.
After being beaten in 2020, Tim Costley regains the seat for National, unseating Labour newcomer Terisa Ngobi.
It's a win for National and the right bloc on party vote, but only an 11.4% swing as Labour's vote holds up a little better.
January 4, 2026 at 7:27 AM
First is Otaki.
After being beaten in 2020, Tim Costley regains the seat for National, unseating Labour newcomer Terisa Ngobi.
It's a win for National and the right bloc on party vote, but only an 11.4% swing as Labour's vote holds up a little better.
After being beaten in 2020, Tim Costley regains the seat for National, unseating Labour newcomer Terisa Ngobi.
It's a win for National and the right bloc on party vote, but only an 11.4% swing as Labour's vote holds up a little better.
And to Whanganui.
Labour's Steph Lewis loses out to National’s Carl Bates on a 17.3% swing.
The party vote goes for National by 9.1% and a bloc swing right of 14.7%.
Labour's Steph Lewis loses out to National’s Carl Bates on a 17.3% swing.
The party vote goes for National by 9.1% and a bloc swing right of 14.7%.
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 AM
And to Whanganui.
Labour's Steph Lewis loses out to National’s Carl Bates on a 17.3% swing.
The party vote goes for National by 9.1% and a bloc swing right of 14.7%.
Labour's Steph Lewis loses out to National’s Carl Bates on a 17.3% swing.
The party vote goes for National by 9.1% and a bloc swing right of 14.7%.
Next is New Plymouth
David MacLeod retakes this seat for National, though his Labour opponent Glen Bennett will return on the list.
On party vote, the right bloc score a win with a swing of almost 14%, a combined 59% for the coalition to the left bloc's 34.1%
David MacLeod retakes this seat for National, though his Labour opponent Glen Bennett will return on the list.
On party vote, the right bloc score a win with a swing of almost 14%, a combined 59% for the coalition to the left bloc's 34.1%
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 AM
Next is New Plymouth
David MacLeod retakes this seat for National, though his Labour opponent Glen Bennett will return on the list.
On party vote, the right bloc score a win with a swing of almost 14%, a combined 59% for the coalition to the left bloc's 34.1%
David MacLeod retakes this seat for National, though his Labour opponent Glen Bennett will return on the list.
On party vote, the right bloc score a win with a swing of almost 14%, a combined 59% for the coalition to the left bloc's 34.1%
Innes Ward
This one is a must watch. I think it could go either way. Pauline Cotter in for a rematch against Ali Jones after Cotter held on by 16 votes last time.
This one is a must watch. I think it could go either way. Pauline Cotter in for a rematch against Ali Jones after Cotter held on by 16 votes last time.
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Innes Ward
This one is a must watch. I think it could go either way. Pauline Cotter in for a rematch against Ali Jones after Cotter held on by 16 votes last time.
This one is a must watch. I think it could go either way. Pauline Cotter in for a rematch against Ali Jones after Cotter held on by 16 votes last time.
Central Ward
Jake McLellan could be in trouble with splits from his left. I don't buy Mauger simp Mike Yardley's prediction of a third place finish, but a win for Raf Manji not out of the question
10/
Jake McLellan could be in trouble with splits from his left. I don't buy Mauger simp Mike Yardley's prediction of a third place finish, but a win for Raf Manji not out of the question
10/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Central Ward
Jake McLellan could be in trouble with splits from his left. I don't buy Mauger simp Mike Yardley's prediction of a third place finish, but a win for Raf Manji not out of the question
10/
Jake McLellan could be in trouble with splits from his left. I don't buy Mauger simp Mike Yardley's prediction of a third place finish, but a win for Raf Manji not out of the question
10/
Papanui Ward
Simon Britten has put forward a good challenge to Vic Henstock, but i reckon a similar outcome to Burwood, a hold for a Mauger ally but with a swing left
9/
Simon Britten has put forward a good challenge to Vic Henstock, but i reckon a similar outcome to Burwood, a hold for a Mauger ally but with a swing left
9/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Papanui Ward
Simon Britten has put forward a good challenge to Vic Henstock, but i reckon a similar outcome to Burwood, a hold for a Mauger ally but with a swing left
9/
Simon Britten has put forward a good challenge to Vic Henstock, but i reckon a similar outcome to Burwood, a hold for a Mauger ally but with a swing left
9/
Riccarton Ward
Tyla Harrison-Hunt's been doing well. Tony Simons has emerged as a competitor, but Sam Yau and Debbie Mora are likely to split the right vote. Could be close, but I'd pick Tyla winning.
8/
Tyla Harrison-Hunt's been doing well. Tony Simons has emerged as a competitor, but Sam Yau and Debbie Mora are likely to split the right vote. Could be close, but I'd pick Tyla winning.
8/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Riccarton Ward
Tyla Harrison-Hunt's been doing well. Tony Simons has emerged as a competitor, but Sam Yau and Debbie Mora are likely to split the right vote. Could be close, but I'd pick Tyla winning.
8/
Tyla Harrison-Hunt's been doing well. Tony Simons has emerged as a competitor, but Sam Yau and Debbie Mora are likely to split the right vote. Could be close, but I'd pick Tyla winning.
8/
Banks Peninsula Ward
Tyrone Fields has been a very active councilor, I don't see any indicators that he's in trouble and should easily nab another term.
7/
Tyrone Fields has been a very active councilor, I don't see any indicators that he's in trouble and should easily nab another term.
7/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Banks Peninsula Ward
Tyrone Fields has been a very active councilor, I don't see any indicators that he's in trouble and should easily nab another term.
7/
Tyrone Fields has been a very active councilor, I don't see any indicators that he's in trouble and should easily nab another term.
7/
Heathcote Ward
Nathaniel Herz Jadine is my pick to succeed Sara Templeton. He's been doing well in the community. His opponent, Ian Kearney, hurt himself when his service in Sumner community fire brigade was... over-exaggerated
6/
Nathaniel Herz Jadine is my pick to succeed Sara Templeton. He's been doing well in the community. His opponent, Ian Kearney, hurt himself when his service in Sumner community fire brigade was... over-exaggerated
6/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Heathcote Ward
Nathaniel Herz Jadine is my pick to succeed Sara Templeton. He's been doing well in the community. His opponent, Ian Kearney, hurt himself when his service in Sumner community fire brigade was... over-exaggerated
6/
Nathaniel Herz Jadine is my pick to succeed Sara Templeton. He's been doing well in the community. His opponent, Ian Kearney, hurt himself when his service in Sumner community fire brigade was... over-exaggerated
6/
Burwood Ward
Mauger ally Kelly Barber has a good chance of holding on, but new Labour/TPC candidate Fionna Chapman has been going hard out in the ward, a solid candidate.
I think Kelly may get another term, but Fionna will get a swing in her favour.
5/
Mauger ally Kelly Barber has a good chance of holding on, but new Labour/TPC candidate Fionna Chapman has been going hard out in the ward, a solid candidate.
I think Kelly may get another term, but Fionna will get a swing in her favour.
5/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Burwood Ward
Mauger ally Kelly Barber has a good chance of holding on, but new Labour/TPC candidate Fionna Chapman has been going hard out in the ward, a solid candidate.
I think Kelly may get another term, but Fionna will get a swing in her favour.
5/
Mauger ally Kelly Barber has a good chance of holding on, but new Labour/TPC candidate Fionna Chapman has been going hard out in the ward, a solid candidate.
I think Kelly may get another term, but Fionna will get a swing in her favour.
5/
Coastal Ward
Celeste Donovan has been an awesome councilor, still retains a strong bedrock in New Brighton. Jo Zervos has a good profile in the community too and was help by James Daniels backing out, but I'm still picking a Celeste win.
4/
Celeste Donovan has been an awesome councilor, still retains a strong bedrock in New Brighton. Jo Zervos has a good profile in the community too and was help by James Daniels backing out, but I'm still picking a Celeste win.
4/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Coastal Ward
Celeste Donovan has been an awesome councilor, still retains a strong bedrock in New Brighton. Jo Zervos has a good profile in the community too and was help by James Daniels backing out, but I'm still picking a Celeste win.
4/
Celeste Donovan has been an awesome councilor, still retains a strong bedrock in New Brighton. Jo Zervos has a good profile in the community too and was help by James Daniels backing out, but I'm still picking a Celeste win.
4/
Unopposed or easy re-election for:
Yani Johanson (Linwood)
Tim Scandrett (Cashmere)
Sam McDonald (Waimairi)
Mark Peters (Hornby)
Aaron Keown (Harewood)
Andrei Moore (Halswell)
David Cartwright highly likely succeed Jamie Gough in Fendalton
3/
Yani Johanson (Linwood)
Tim Scandrett (Cashmere)
Sam McDonald (Waimairi)
Mark Peters (Hornby)
Aaron Keown (Harewood)
Andrei Moore (Halswell)
David Cartwright highly likely succeed Jamie Gough in Fendalton
3/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Unopposed or easy re-election for:
Yani Johanson (Linwood)
Tim Scandrett (Cashmere)
Sam McDonald (Waimairi)
Mark Peters (Hornby)
Aaron Keown (Harewood)
Andrei Moore (Halswell)
David Cartwright highly likely succeed Jamie Gough in Fendalton
3/
Yani Johanson (Linwood)
Tim Scandrett (Cashmere)
Sam McDonald (Waimairi)
Mark Peters (Hornby)
Aaron Keown (Harewood)
Andrei Moore (Halswell)
David Cartwright highly likely succeed Jamie Gough in Fendalton
3/
The mayoral race is going to be close. Sara's been a solid contender. Phil Mauger has had some gaffes, but it's not put him out of the race.
It could go either way.
2/
It could go either way.
2/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
The mayoral race is going to be close. Sara's been a solid contender. Phil Mauger has had some gaffes, but it's not put him out of the race.
It could go either way.
2/
It could go either way.
2/
And last, Upper Harbour
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
And last, Upper Harbour
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
To New Lynn
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
To New Lynn
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
First is Kelston.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
First is Kelston.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
And last, Wairarapa.
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
And last, Wairarapa.
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide