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Reposted by Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 4d

📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies

How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?

ifs.org.uk

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Thats right.

We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards

We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.

This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

England’s SEND crisis: costs, challenges and the case for reform | Institute for Fiscal Studies

What are the challenges facing the special educational needs system in England, and how can the government could reform the system?

ifs.org.uk

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

This is the default projection in the absence of reform

The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality

We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029

This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO

If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.

There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs

If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.

Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims

Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 5d

Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape

I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.

THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

Chart shows share of under 16s on disability benefits and share of pupils with high-level special educational support. Title states: "The share of children receiving high-level special educational support and the share on disability benefits have both doubled in the past decade."

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 22d

Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)

The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me

qualifications.wales/news-views/f...

Further consultation planned on GCSE science | Qualifications Wales

Qualifications Wales has announced that a new consultation on GCSE science will take place in 2028.

qualifications.wales

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.

Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin.

The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

The factors driving increased numbers of children with SEND are global. Numbers of children with identified needs are going up in any future system, particularly autism and ADHD

The question is how best to respond [2/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26d

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jul 31

That’s quite a cool anecdote. What’s the book?

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jul 7

Ah, I see you’re on your way to lake como, which is also beautiful. Enjoy the journey. Beautiful pics.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jul 7

If you go all the way to Tirano, I recommend trying the pizzoccheri. It’s the local speciality. I was there last week and it’s delicious.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jun 20

Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago

I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK

These are his words. He always wrote beautifully

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jun 11

Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social

The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · Jun 9

Hard to say till we see full details on Wednesday

Either way, they will be spending more on SEND. Without reform, spending will go up by over £2bn

Can they reform the system to make it better and cost less than that? Only time will tell.

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