Lynn
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lynnfi.bsky.social
Lynn
@lynnfi.bsky.social
4 followers 4 following 1 posts
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Reposted by Lynn
mayavienken.bsky.social
We have a new preprint on covariate-driven #HMMs!
doi.org/10.48550/arX...
@olemole.bsky.social, @rolandlangrock.bsky.social
• commonly used hypothetical stationary distribution can be biased⚠️
• we propose 2 approaches allowing unbiased inference
• simulations and case study on Galápagos tortoises🐢🗺️
January 7, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Reposted by Lynn
olemole.bsky.social
Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107

We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
Periodically stationary distribution (probability that the fly is active) as a function of the time of day. True stationary distribution is compared to biased approximation, and we see a substantial difference.
December 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Reposted by Lynn
olemole.bsky.social
My paper is out! 🎉 I explore hidden semi-Markov models with covariate-dependent state dwell-time distributions — because sometimes Markov just isn’t enough.
Case study: Arctic muskox movement! 🦬📊
🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

#stats #TimeSeries #HSMM #StatisticalEcology #rstats
Hidden semi-Markov models with inhomogeneous state dwell-time distributions
The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is …
www.sciencedirect.com
March 19, 2025 at 4:35 PM