@macromodels.bsky.social
Reposted
Nice bell curve forming here:
April 2, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Nice bell curve forming here:
Reposted
Kalshi is more bearish on the timeframe of the GOP passing a reconciliation bill than I would have guessed. Looks like it’s implying July at the earliest:
April 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Kalshi is more bearish on the timeframe of the GOP passing a reconciliation bill than I would have guessed. Looks like it’s implying July at the earliest:
macromodels.substack.com/p/irish-elec... wrote about the Irish elections
November 27, 2024 at 9:53 PM
macromodels.substack.com/p/irish-elec... wrote about the Irish elections
Reposted
This is an excellent summary of where Democrats went wrong with public safety. To the extent that crime mattered in recent US elections, it hurt Democrats, despite the fact that the most serious crime, i.e. homicides and shootings, declined on their watch. Why? Look below.
Part Two of the Common Sense Democrat manifesto — it’s not progressive or humane to become so leery of punishment that you let public spaces and public services become disorderly, dysfunctional, and unpleasant.
www.slowboring.com/p/liberalism...
www.slowboring.com/p/liberalism...
November 25, 2024 at 2:10 PM
This is an excellent summary of where Democrats went wrong with public safety. To the extent that crime mattered in recent US elections, it hurt Democrats, despite the fact that the most serious crime, i.e. homicides and shootings, declined on their watch. Why? Look below.
macromodels.substack.com/p/the-predic... At the moment I am only followed by mid-level marketing schemes, porn bots, and one earnest macro-economist, but throwing this out into the ether and hoping a real human reads.
The Prediction Markets Underestimated Polling Error
Twitter’s infinite scroll contains many triumphant posts from betting market evangelists.
macromodels.substack.com
November 25, 2024 at 1:37 PM
macromodels.substack.com/p/the-predic... At the moment I am only followed by mid-level marketing schemes, porn bots, and one earnest macro-economist, but throwing this out into the ether and hoping a real human reads.