Mafalda Pratas
@mafaldapratas.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the European University Institute. PhD from Harvard University.
European & US politics. Political representation, institutions and voters' decision-making. Political Economy.
European & US politics. Political representation, institutions and voters' decision-making. Political Economy.
Reposted by Mafalda Pratas
Meanwhile scholars will hit the panel data FE regression with the incantation “parallel trends,” that literally means “I assume away non-causal explanations for a correlation,” and think we learned something scientifically special.
December 2, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Meanwhile scholars will hit the panel data FE regression with the incantation “parallel trends,” that literally means “I assume away non-causal explanations for a correlation,” and think we learned something scientifically special.
Reposted by Mafalda Pratas
“I personally can’t think of a way” is deficient. “We collectively can’t think of a way” is not that.
Also note the identifying assumption in, say, IV regression is not doing anything besides this. “We can’t think of a way for the instrument to directly affect the DV” is actually the argument.
Also note the identifying assumption in, say, IV regression is not doing anything besides this. “We can’t think of a way for the instrument to directly affect the DV” is actually the argument.
December 2, 2025 at 11:11 PM
“I personally can’t think of a way” is deficient. “We collectively can’t think of a way” is not that.
Also note the identifying assumption in, say, IV regression is not doing anything besides this. “We can’t think of a way for the instrument to directly affect the DV” is actually the argument.
Also note the identifying assumption in, say, IV regression is not doing anything besides this. “We can’t think of a way for the instrument to directly affect the DV” is actually the argument.
Do voters perceive the CDU/CSU choices as representation and responsiveness? Or merely as electoral opportunism? Most see it as electoral calculus (and this might be costly), but a decent proportion (many who agree) see it as legitimate representation.
More answers in the paper to come!
7/7
More answers in the paper to come!
7/7
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Do voters perceive the CDU/CSU choices as representation and responsiveness? Or merely as electoral opportunism? Most see it as electoral calculus (and this might be costly), but a decent proportion (many who agree) see it as legitimate representation.
More answers in the paper to come!
7/7
More answers in the paper to come!
7/7
German public is also divided (though not equally) between those who think Germany has special responsibility in dealing with right-wing extremists (the majority) and those who think there is no historical responsibility on this matter (25-30% voters).
6/n
6/n
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
German public is also divided (though not equally) between those who think Germany has special responsibility in dealing with right-wing extremists (the majority) and those who think there is no historical responsibility on this matter (25-30% voters).
6/n
6/n
- Voter's immigration attitudes also matter. Those who think immigration is an important problem and want to restrict it saw CDU choices in positive light.
- Interestingly, accomodation (of CDU/CSU to AfD) seems more costly, in electoral terms, in the West than in the East!
5/n
- Interestingly, accomodation (of CDU/CSU to AfD) seems more costly, in electoral terms, in the West than in the East!
5/n
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
- Voter's immigration attitudes also matter. Those who think immigration is an important problem and want to restrict it saw CDU choices in positive light.
- Interestingly, accomodation (of CDU/CSU to AfD) seems more costly, in electoral terms, in the West than in the East!
5/n
- Interestingly, accomodation (of CDU/CSU to AfD) seems more costly, in electoral terms, in the West than in the East!
5/n
However, AfD voters did like CDU actions and reported a slight increase in prop. to vote for them. Note, however, the AfD voters are particularly committed to vote for the party and it is extremely hard to actually change their behavior.
4/n
4/n
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
However, AfD voters did like CDU actions and reported a slight increase in prop. to vote for them. Note, however, the AfD voters are particularly committed to vote for the party and it is extremely hard to actually change their behavior.
4/n
4/n
Still, we can still interesting trends and changes!
Overall, general electorate did not like the Union's actions and showed a slight decrease in propensity to vote for them. Interestingly, CDU voters from last summer also showed slight decrease in prop. to vote for them.
3/n
Overall, general electorate did not like the Union's actions and showed a slight decrease in propensity to vote for them. Interestingly, CDU voters from last summer also showed slight decrease in prop. to vote for them.
3/n
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Still, we can still interesting trends and changes!
Overall, general electorate did not like the Union's actions and showed a slight decrease in propensity to vote for them. Interestingly, CDU voters from last summer also showed slight decrease in prop. to vote for them.
3/n
Overall, general electorate did not like the Union's actions and showed a slight decrease in propensity to vote for them. Interestingly, CDU voters from last summer also showed slight decrease in prop. to vote for them.
3/n
Measuring counterfactual vote changes is notoriously hard! Our results show small changes, as expected from a single event in real-world, and in line with the recent polls that came out this week. However, note that being able to break a firewall with small electoral consequences is big!
2/n
2/n
February 7, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Measuring counterfactual vote changes is notoriously hard! Our results show small changes, as expected from a single event in real-world, and in line with the recent polls that came out this week. However, note that being able to break a firewall with small electoral consequences is big!
2/n
2/n
I'd love to be added!
November 19, 2024 at 10:40 AM
I'd love to be added!
Hi! Great list! Would like to be added, if that's okay. :)
November 18, 2024 at 9:45 AM
Hi! Great list! Would like to be added, if that's okay. :)
I liked in the morning! Could you please add me? Many thanks for all your service!
September 20, 2023 at 6:18 PM
I liked in the morning! Could you please add me? Many thanks for all your service!
Hey! Could you add me to Polisky? Thanks!!
September 20, 2023 at 6:02 PM
Hey! Could you add me to Polisky? Thanks!!
Elon said in a livestream with Netanyahu that he would starting charging all users (though it was not a set policy, just a shower thought he had). Plus the 2 week delay in invite codes, yes.
September 20, 2023 at 1:54 PM
Elon said in a livestream with Netanyahu that he would starting charging all users (though it was not a set policy, just a shower thought he had). Plus the 2 week delay in invite codes, yes.