⊹⊱ 𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕒𝕝 𝕄𝕒𝕜𝕚𝕝𝕚-𝔸𝕝𝕚𝕪𝕖𝕧 ⊰⊹
@makili-aliyev.com
Assoc. Professor of Human Rights (Uni. of Gothenburg) | LL.D. in PIL & IHRL | Aff. Scholar (Raoul Wallenberg Institute) | Horological addict | My own views, not institutional. @makili-aliyev.com / www.makili-aliyev.com
Or Panama, or Cuba..?
January 4, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Or Panama, or Cuba..?
Hopefully not. This did not end well last time, right?
January 3, 2026 at 5:30 AM
Hopefully not. This did not end well last time, right?
12/
Europe’s real test isn’t how much it spends on defence, but whether it can convince its own citizens why that power is needed, and what it’s ultimately for.
End.
Europe’s real test isn’t how much it spends on defence, but whether it can convince its own citizens why that power is needed, and what it’s ultimately for.
End.
December 31, 2025 at 8:28 AM
12/
Europe’s real test isn’t how much it spends on defence, but whether it can convince its own citizens why that power is needed, and what it’s ultimately for.
End.
Europe’s real test isn’t how much it spends on defence, but whether it can convince its own citizens why that power is needed, and what it’s ultimately for.
End.
11/
Strategic autonomy built on panic is fragile. Built on consent, transparency, and purpose, it becomes sustainable power.
Strategic autonomy built on panic is fragile. Built on consent, transparency, and purpose, it becomes sustainable power.
December 31, 2025 at 8:28 AM
11/
Strategic autonomy built on panic is fragile. Built on consent, transparency, and purpose, it becomes sustainable power.
Strategic autonomy built on panic is fragile. Built on consent, transparency, and purpose, it becomes sustainable power.
10/
Fear works fast, but it doesn’t last. Governing by permanent emergency risks public fatigue, scepticism, and eventual backlash against defence spending itself.
Fear works fast, but it doesn’t last. Governing by permanent emergency risks public fatigue, scepticism, and eventual backlash against defence spending itself.
December 31, 2025 at 8:27 AM
10/
Fear works fast, but it doesn’t last. Governing by permanent emergency risks public fatigue, scepticism, and eventual backlash against defence spending itself.
Fear works fast, but it doesn’t last. Governing by permanent emergency risks public fatigue, scepticism, and eventual backlash against defence spending itself.
9/
The real threat is grey-zone warfare: cyber attacks, disinformation, political interference, and strategic intimidation; not tanks rolling into Berlin or Paris.
The real threat is grey-zone warfare: cyber attacks, disinformation, political interference, and strategic intimidation; not tanks rolling into Berlin or Paris.
December 31, 2025 at 8:27 AM
9/
The real threat is grey-zone warfare: cyber attacks, disinformation, political interference, and strategic intimidation; not tanks rolling into Berlin or Paris.
The real threat is grey-zone warfare: cyber attacks, disinformation, political interference, and strategic intimidation; not tanks rolling into Berlin or Paris.
8/
Russia is a serious challenge... but not in the way often implied. A conventional Russian attack on EU or NATO territory remains unlikely in the mid-term.
Russia is a serious challenge... but not in the way often implied. A conventional Russian attack on EU or NATO territory remains unlikely in the mid-term.
December 31, 2025 at 8:27 AM
8/
Russia is a serious challenge... but not in the way often implied. A conventional Russian attack on EU or NATO territory remains unlikely in the mid-term.
Russia is a serious challenge... but not in the way often implied. A conventional Russian attack on EU or NATO territory remains unlikely in the mid-term.
7/
Inside Europe, leaders are using Russia as the accelerant: an existential threat narrative to push defence spending and security reforms at record speed.
Inside Europe, leaders are using Russia as the accelerant: an existential threat narrative to push defence spending and security reforms at record speed.
December 31, 2025 at 8:26 AM
7/
Inside Europe, leaders are using Russia as the accelerant: an existential threat narrative to push defence spending and security reforms at record speed.
Inside Europe, leaders are using Russia as the accelerant: an existential threat narrative to push defence spending and security reforms at record speed.
6/
For the U.S., the risk runs deeper than headlines. Power without loyal allies is brittle. Transactional alliances weaken influence over time — even for superpowers.
For the U.S., the risk runs deeper than headlines. Power without loyal allies is brittle. Transactional alliances weaken influence over time — even for superpowers.
December 31, 2025 at 8:26 AM
6/
For the U.S., the risk runs deeper than headlines. Power without loyal allies is brittle. Transactional alliances weaken influence over time — even for superpowers.
For the U.S., the risk runs deeper than headlines. Power without loyal allies is brittle. Transactional alliances weaken influence over time — even for superpowers.
5/
Autonomy does not mean breaking with the U.S. It means being able to act when Washington is distracted, divided, or simply uninterested.
Autonomy does not mean breaking with the U.S. It means being able to act when Washington is distracted, divided, or simply uninterested.
December 31, 2025 at 8:26 AM
5/
Autonomy does not mean breaking with the U.S. It means being able to act when Washington is distracted, divided, or simply uninterested.
Autonomy does not mean breaking with the U.S. It means being able to act when Washington is distracted, divided, or simply uninterested.
4/
But in the long run, this shock may be Europe’s best chance in decades. Strategic autonomy is no longer a slogan — it’s becoming unavoidable.
But in the long run, this shock may be Europe’s best chance in decades. Strategic autonomy is no longer a slogan — it’s becoming unavoidable.
December 31, 2025 at 8:25 AM
4/
But in the long run, this shock may be Europe’s best chance in decades. Strategic autonomy is no longer a slogan — it’s becoming unavoidable.
But in the long run, this shock may be Europe’s best chance in decades. Strategic autonomy is no longer a slogan — it’s becoming unavoidable.
3/
In the short term, Europe loses. Less certainty, more pressure, higher costs. Strategic dependence is expensive once the patron becomes unpredictable.
In the short term, Europe loses. Less certainty, more pressure, higher costs. Strategic dependence is expensive once the patron becomes unpredictable.
December 31, 2025 at 8:25 AM
3/
In the short term, Europe loses. Less certainty, more pressure, higher costs. Strategic dependence is expensive once the patron becomes unpredictable.
In the short term, Europe loses. Less certainty, more pressure, higher costs. Strategic dependence is expensive once the patron becomes unpredictable.
2/
The transatlantic rift isn’t about personalities. It’s structural. Different threat perceptions, different priorities, and a U.S. increasingly unwilling to subsidise European complacency.
The transatlantic rift isn’t about personalities. It’s structural. Different threat perceptions, different priorities, and a U.S. increasingly unwilling to subsidise European complacency.
December 31, 2025 at 8:25 AM
2/
The transatlantic rift isn’t about personalities. It’s structural. Different threat perceptions, different priorities, and a U.S. increasingly unwilling to subsidise European complacency.
The transatlantic rift isn’t about personalities. It’s structural. Different threat perceptions, different priorities, and a U.S. increasingly unwilling to subsidise European complacency.
1/
2025 won’t be remembered for a single geopolitical rupture — but for the year Europe finally accepted a hard truth: the U.S. security guarantee is no longer unconditional.
2025 won’t be remembered for a single geopolitical rupture — but for the year Europe finally accepted a hard truth: the U.S. security guarantee is no longer unconditional.
December 31, 2025 at 8:24 AM
1/
2025 won’t be remembered for a single geopolitical rupture — but for the year Europe finally accepted a hard truth: the U.S. security guarantee is no longer unconditional.
2025 won’t be remembered for a single geopolitical rupture — but for the year Europe finally accepted a hard truth: the U.S. security guarantee is no longer unconditional.