Marc Chandler
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Political economist
Focus global capital markets
Focus global capital markets
The pot is stirred. More turmoil in Davos. Market anxiety elevated. Bond, equities and the dollar have been sold hard. Gold, silver, and Swiss franc havens. US 10yr has approached 4.30%, highest since last September.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
Drama Unfolds: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar have Been Sold
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 20, 2026 at 11:59 AM
The pot is stirred. More turmoil in Davos. Market anxiety elevated. Bond, equities and the dollar have been sold hard. Gold, silver, and Swiss franc havens. US 10yr has approached 4.30%, highest since last September.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/dram...
#$USD is mostly softer amid heightened tensions over Greenland, where the US has reduced it military presence in recent years. As rumored, Japan PM called for a snap election next month. China's Q4 GDP mixed but PBOC fixed CNY higher. US on holiday.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
Greenback Slips Amid Heightened Tensions over Greenland
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:03 PM
#$USD is mostly softer amid heightened tensions over Greenland, where the US has reduced it military presence in recent years. As rumored, Japan PM called for a snap election next month. China's Q4 GDP mixed but PBOC fixed CNY higher. US on holiday.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
#$USD opening firmer after weekend developments. Euro trading thru $1.1585 where 2.1 bln euro in options expire tomorrow 10 am ET. It is off ~1/4 cent, while #$GBP was off almost 1/2 cent before steadying. Weak close before the weekend, but... Weekly: marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
January 18, 2026 at 6:35 PM
#$USD opening firmer after weekend developments. Euro trading thru $1.1585 where 2.1 bln euro in options expire tomorrow 10 am ET. It is off ~1/4 cent, while #$GBP was off almost 1/2 cent before steadying. Weak close before the weekend, but... Weekly: marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Dollar's Upside Correction Since around Christmas may be in the Final Phase
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 17, 2026 at 12:22 PM
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Some suspect BOJ could intervene what US is on holiday. I am skeptical. One reason is that if they intervene and BOJ at the end of the week does not raise rates and the prime minister calls for a snap election--the intervention could go for naught.
January 16, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Some suspect BOJ could intervene what US is on holiday. I am skeptical. One reason is that if they intervene and BOJ at the end of the week does not raise rates and the prime minister calls for a snap election--the intervention could go for naught.
Futures market now has about 45 bp of easing discounted for the Fed this year. It implies a year end effective rate of about 3.18%, the highest since the end of last July.
January 16, 2026 at 3:47 PM
Futures market now has about 45 bp of easing discounted for the Fed this year. It implies a year end effective rate of about 3.18%, the highest since the end of last July.
USD firms after POTUS seemed to rule out Hassett at Fed's helm, saying he likes him where he is at. Yet, could Miran get the nod? Stocks have turned lower and the 4.20% capped the 10yr Treasury yield.
January 16, 2026 at 3:38 PM
USD firms after POTUS seemed to rule out Hassett at Fed's helm, saying he likes him where he is at. Yet, could Miran get the nod? Stocks have turned lower and the 4.20% capped the 10yr Treasury yield.
The USD is trading softer against the G10 currencies but the broad consolidation seen in recent days continues. Yen shorts covered amid heightened fear of intervention perhaps when US markets are closed Monday. Verbal intervention continued.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
US Dollar Finishing Week Softly but Within Consolidative Ranges
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 16, 2026 at 12:02 PM
The USD is trading softer against the G10 currencies but the broad consolidation seen in recent days continues. Yen shorts covered amid heightened fear of intervention perhaps when US markets are closed Monday. Verbal intervention continued.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
FX option expirations tomorrow:
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
January 15, 2026 at 8:35 PM
FX option expirations tomorrow:
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
2.4 bln euros at $1.16.
$2.1 bln at JPY158.
A$1.2 bln at $0.6640.
$880 mln at CAD1.3950.
GBP800 mln at $1.3425.
MXN and CNH make new highs, while the greenback consolidate against G10 currencies. JPY stabilized with threats of intervention and BOJ to take yen weakness inflation implications into account. Operation Arctic Endurance sees NATO troops in Greenland.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
The Dollar is Firm but Consolidating
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:59 AM
MXN and CNH make new highs, while the greenback consolidate against G10 currencies. JPY stabilized with threats of intervention and BOJ to take yen weakness inflation implications into account. Operation Arctic Endurance sees NATO troops in Greenland.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
Some large FX options expire tomorrow:
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
January 14, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Some large FX options expire tomorrow:
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
$1.7 bln at CAD1.3850
GBP1.3 bln at $1.3450
900 mln euros at $1.1650
$1.45 bln at JPY159 and ~$385 mln at JPY159.50
$900 mln at MXN17.80
USD consolidation broadly continues. Japanese officials have taken a couple of steps up the intervention escalation ladder, injecting a note of caution. PRC reports a big trade surplus. Will it SCOTUS rule on US tariffs?
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
The Dollar Consolidates while Japan Steps Up its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 14, 2026 at 12:02 PM
USD consolidation broadly continues. Japanese officials have taken a couple of steps up the intervention escalation ladder, injecting a note of caution. PRC reports a big trade surplus. Will it SCOTUS rule on US tariffs?
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/the-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
JPY Slumps
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 13, 2026 at 11:49 AM
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
JPY Slumps
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 13, 2026 at 11:49 AM
USD is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges, but it has jumped against the yen and traded above JPY159 amid heightened speculation of snap election that could be called by the end of next week. Fin min warnings about JPY weakness were shrugged off.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/jpy-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
New Push Against the Federal Reserve Sends the Dollar, and US Bonds and Stocks Lower, and Helps Lift Gold and Silver to Record Highs
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:03 PM
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Judging the way USD & US stocks are performing in the NA session, we seem less concerned that the Fed's independence will be encroached by the threat of criminal charges against Powell. Noise and poor optics and more recognition that Powell stay on to finish governor term.
January 12, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Judging the way USD & US stocks are performing in the NA session, we seem less concerned that the Fed's independence will be encroached by the threat of criminal charges against Powell. Noise and poor optics and more recognition that Powell stay on to finish governor term.
Judging the way USD & US stocks are performing in the NA session, we seem less concerned that the Fed's independence will be encroached by the threat of criminal charges against Powell. Noise and poor optics and more recognition that Powell stay on to finish governor term.
January 12, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Judging the way USD & US stocks are performing in the NA session, we seem less concerned that the Fed's independence will be encroached by the threat of criminal charges against Powell. Noise and poor optics and more recognition that Powell stay on to finish governor term.
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
New Push Against the Federal Reserve Sends the Dollar, and US Bonds and Stocks Lower, and Helps Lift Gold and Silver to Record Highs
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:03 PM
After opening firmer, the USD has been sold following the newest attempt by the Trump administration to encroach on the Fed's independence in the form of grand jury subpoenas over its HQ renovations. Stocks heavier and curve steeper.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/new-...
Monroe Doctrine? Supposed to keep Europe out--
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
January 10, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Monroe Doctrine? Supposed to keep Europe out--
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
see politico.eu/article/eu-c...
and (h/t @@econovis.bsky.social)
Week ahead: Attention turns back to US prices, with CPI. UK Nov monthly GDP due. It could be the first increase since June. China's trade balance is due and a larger surplus is expected.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Additional Scope for the US Dollar to Extend the Upside Correction
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 10, 2026 at 12:08 PM
Week ahead: Attention turns back to US prices, with CPI. UK Nov monthly GDP due. It could be the first increase since June. China's trade balance is due and a larger surplus is expected.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Reuters reports no Supreme Court ruling on tariffs today. USD edges higher.
January 9, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Reuters reports no Supreme Court ruling on tariffs today. USD edges higher.
USD is bid ahead of the employment data. The report will likely reaffirm the conviction that the Fed is on hold after 3 rate cuts late last year. SCOTUS decision on emergency use of tariffs also awaited.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-a...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-a...
US and Canada Jobs Day and More
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM
USD is bid ahead of the employment data. The report will likely reaffirm the conviction that the Fed is on hold after 3 rate cuts late last year. SCOTUS decision on emergency use of tariffs also awaited.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-a...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-a...
USD traded above JPY157 where options for $2.88 bln expire at 10:00 am ET. Japan's poor labor earnings data and better than expected US data warns of the yen's vulnerability through tomorrow's US jobs data. The next stack of options are at JPY158 for tomorrow and Mon ~$1.6 bln.
January 8, 2026 at 2:14 PM
USD traded above JPY157 where options for $2.88 bln expire at 10:00 am ET. Japan's poor labor earnings data and better than expected US data warns of the yen's vulnerability through tomorrow's US jobs data. The next stack of options are at JPY158 for tomorrow and Mon ~$1.6 bln.
The choppy but consolidative tone in the FX market continues. Resolution tomorrow likely with US jobs, SCOTUS. German factory orders surged. Japanese wage growth disappointed. But $eur and $JPY little changed.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/usd-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/usd-...
USD Continues to Consolidate: Tomorrow's Employment Data and Supreme Court Decision Awaited
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 8, 2026 at 11:53 AM
The choppy but consolidative tone in the FX market continues. Resolution tomorrow likely with US jobs, SCOTUS. German factory orders surged. Japanese wage growth disappointed. But $eur and $JPY little changed.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/usd-...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/usd-...
The markets may debate it, but American exceptionalism returned this week, not just with the action in Venezuela, but also in US corps exempt from intl min corp tax agreement. Meanwhile, USD is consolidating. See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Consolidates as American Exceptionalism Returns
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 7, 2026 at 2:11 PM
The markets may debate it, but American exceptionalism returned this week, not just with the action in Venezuela, but also in US corps exempt from intl min corp tax agreement. Meanwhile, USD is consolidating. See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...