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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 7d

@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
@mcri.bsky.social @unimelb.bsky.social

Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 7d

A few weeks ago I went to Canberra to receive the Moran Medal at the lovely Shine Dome of the Australian Academy of Science (@science.org.au). It was a huge honour, and wonderful to hear talks from all corners of science and to learn about the Academy's great work supporting science
- pics below!

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 13d

NEW PAPER!!! "Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding"

led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin
Published in Stats in Med

Check it out 👇
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

#EpiSky #CausalSky

Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the p...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

😄

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

Without getting into the Hume/Kant debate that Ivan raised above, if we focus on target trial emulations or actual trials, the estimand can indeed (though doesn't have to!) be defined as the effect in an ideal trial (per my other message, given the asymptotic result)

Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

So specifying the components of the ideal trial (up to the contrasts) is an intuitive (but not necessary!) way of defining some causal estimands (but maybe not all of them!). And as I argue can help being clear about some things that are often forgotten in the math notation

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

I am not sure what you think my premise is, but as I explain in the paper under asymptotic conditions the ACE defined using potential outcomes is mathematically equivalent to the effect in an ideal trial randomizing the target pop to the two interventions of interest

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

My take on the addendum estimands (from afar), is that the approach overlooks causal identification assumptions (step 2 in my Figure 1) and suggests some estimands that are not actually proper (mathematically defined) defensivle estimands - they are more “analysis approaches”, ie skip steps 1 and 2

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27d

My 2 cents to clarifying links between formal causal inference and target and actual trials: arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026 @timpmorris.bsky.social @idiaz.bsky.social

arxiv.org

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 28d

@rush-099.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social

Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 28d

NEW PAPER! (in press in EPIDEMIOLOGY)

Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?

Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky

The ideal trial: defining causal estimands that balance relevance and feasibility in target trial emulations and actual randomized trials

Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study thi...

arxiv.org

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Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur

hjhansford.bsky.social @hjhansford.bsky.social · Sep 3

🎯 TARGET Guideline published 🎉

TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework.

Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com

doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350

#episky

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

@ghazalehd.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

6/ And more: Impact of eliminating racial discrimination in reducing inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (tinyurl.com/5nej5vch)

To what extent could eliminating racial discrimination reduce inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children? A causal mediation study

Targeted policy interventions that eliminate racial discrimination against Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children could have high potential to reduce inequities in mental health and sleep prob...

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

5/ Even more examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce postnatal depression (tinyurl.com/3ej5mee4) and mid-life mental health disorders (tinyurl.com/yy8jbpwr) in those with a history of mental illness

Preventing postnatal depression: a causal mediation analysis of a 20-year preconception cohort | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Postnatal depression (PND) is common and predicts a range of adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. PND rates are highest among women with persistent mental health problems before pregnancy, and ant...

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

4/ More examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce the heightened cancer risk in postmenopausal women with obesity (tinyurl.com/5b3kwjwk) and to reduce sex differences in melanoma cancer survival (tinyurl.com/57prtyr7)

Adiposity and breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Quantification of the mediating effects of leptin, C‐reactive protein, fasting insulin, and estradiol

Background Mechanisms underlying the adiposity–cancer relationship are incompletely understood. We quantified the mediating roles of C-reactive protein (CRP), leptin, fasting insulin, and estradiol ...

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

3/ Examples: Impact of potential early childhood interventions to reduce socioeconomic disparities in children’s mental health (tinyurl.com/muttxx7j) and literacy skills (tinyurl.com/mvz8bxk8)

Addressing Child Mental Health Inequities Through Parental Mental Health and Preschool Attendance

BACKGROUND. Prevention is key to reducing socioeconomic inequities in children’s mental health problems, especially given limited availability and accessibility of services. We investigated the potent...

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

2/ The methodology uses interventional effects mapped to a “target trial” assessing the treatment strategies of interest, as proposed here tinyurl.com/yztb2hxs

Mediation effects that emulate a target randomised trial: Simulation-based evaluation of ill-defined interventions on multiple mediators - Margarita Moreno-Betancur, Paul Moran, Denise Becker, George ...

Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that i...

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 10

1/ NEW R PACKAGE! For estimating the impact of potential interventions on multiple mediators in countering exposure effects (led by @cttc101.bsky.social)

- Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps
- Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens

Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky

tinyurl.com

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Jul 2

NOW PUBLISHED! Featured article + 6 Commentaries + Rejoinder: “On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching” with my colleague John Carlin
tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky

Rejoinder to Commentaries on: On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching

Click on the article title to read more.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Ghazaleh Dashti @ghazalehd.bsky.social · May 1

📢 New Commentary: We discuss how analytic choices impact interpretation of studies on socioeconomic health inequities. We review 1) descriptive analogues of causal estimands (à la Young et al) with competing events; 2) timescale choice; and 3) covariate adjustment.
👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...

Invited commentary: Descriptive social epidemiology: putting the question before the methods

Abstract. In studies describing socioeconomic inequities in health outcomes, the choice of estimand and the planned analytic approach are central to the in

academic.oup.com

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Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Tong Chen @cttc101.bsky.social · Apr 24

Thrilled to share our new preprint on causal ML for mediation analysis! We introduce causal ML estimators for interventional effects explicitly mapped to target trials assessing hypothetical interventions inducing distinct shifts in joint mediator distributions📊 📈🧪
#CausalSky #EpiSky

ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Apr 23

link 📈🤖
Causal machine learning for high-dimensional mediation analysis using interventional effects mapped to a target trial (Chen, Vansteelandt, Burgner et al) Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are me

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Apr 23

Recording of my talk @causalab.bsky.social on using m-DAGs to guide the treatment of missing data now available 👇 #EpiSky #CausalSky

CAUSALab @causalab.bsky.social · Apr 22

Check out the last Methods Series talk now on YouTube:
youtu.be/QuQnZ4don54?...

CAUSALab @causalab.bsky.social · Apr 8

2 weeks away!

@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.

📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual

Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Apr 15

Looking forward to speaking at the CAUSALab methods seminar series next week! 👇

CAUSALab @causalab.bsky.social · Apr 8

2 weeks away!

@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.

📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual

Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference

Margarita Moreno-Betancur April 22 Methods Series talk, "Using missingness directed acyclic graphs (m-DAGs) to depict assumptions and guide the choice of method for handling missing data."

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · Apr 8

Thank youuuu 😊

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