MarketScalpel
@marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
OT -- I used to have a drink now and then in a pub called the Peace and Plenty just outside Rye. A better one a few minutes down the road called the Horse and Cart tho, which had a pool table. And happened to be Paul McCartney's local!
January 4, 2026 at 11:55 AM
OT -- I used to have a drink now and then in a pub called the Peace and Plenty just outside Rye. A better one a few minutes down the road called the Horse and Cart tho, which had a pool table. And happened to be Paul McCartney's local!
Well I'm a liberal but one who thinks when facts you're faced with change, you're a fool not to do so also. But I'm more optimistic than you generally; think Trump's move is to an extent driven by domestic political weakness, and a little pushback abroad and at home and an opportunity to neuter him
January 3, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Well I'm a liberal but one who thinks when facts you're faced with change, you're a fool not to do so also. But I'm more optimistic than you generally; think Trump's move is to an extent driven by domestic political weakness, and a little pushback abroad and at home and an opportunity to neuter him
It may be ironic, but they happen to be right. You wanna pick up your ball and not play along cos Russia happens to be the party stating the simple truth? Pretty childish, irrational, and stupid not to draw some sort of line now Trump is making a move and openly taking a dump on international law
January 3, 2026 at 1:10 PM
It may be ironic, but they happen to be right. You wanna pick up your ball and not play along cos Russia happens to be the party stating the simple truth? Pretty childish, irrational, and stupid not to draw some sort of line now Trump is making a move and openly taking a dump on international law
2/ based on a infinitely more dismal and misanthropic interpretation of human nature
And all immediately falsified by London. So it simply can not exist in the form we know and love, and as such must be torn down by the nihilistic intolerant barbarians.
And all immediately falsified by London. So it simply can not exist in the form we know and love, and as such must be torn down by the nihilistic intolerant barbarians.
January 1, 2026 at 4:23 PM
2/ based on a infinitely more dismal and misanthropic interpretation of human nature
And all immediately falsified by London. So it simply can not exist in the form we know and love, and as such must be torn down by the nihilistic intolerant barbarians.
And all immediately falsified by London. So it simply can not exist in the form we know and love, and as such must be torn down by the nihilistic intolerant barbarians.
Indeed, as I touched on below. But you can take this argument further; right-wing populism makes an explicit prophecy of inevitable multicultural societal failure, doomed by its alleged contradictions. In this way it's eerily similar to failed Communist prophesy. Except 1/
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Trump is a racist with lots of racist backers including weird Broligarghs with extremely weird racist ideas, and London is a shining beacon of multiculturalism where white, black and Asian kids grow up together, and find shared values in class not ethnic background, as racists contend is impossible
January 1, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Indeed, as I touched on below. But you can take this argument further; right-wing populism makes an explicit prophecy of inevitable multicultural societal failure, doomed by its alleged contradictions. In this way it's eerily similar to failed Communist prophesy. Except 1/
bsky.app/profile/mark...
bsky.app/profile/mark...
Trump is a racist with lots of racist backers including weird Broligarghs with extremely weird racist ideas, and London is a shining beacon of multiculturalism where white, black and Asian kids grow up together, and find shared values in class not ethnic background, as racists contend is impossible
December 26, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Trump is a racist with lots of racist backers including weird Broligarghs with extremely weird racist ideas, and London is a shining beacon of multiculturalism where white, black and Asian kids grow up together, and find shared values in class not ethnic background, as racists contend is impossible
Charitable interpretation of Witkoff/Trump's motives
November 26, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Charitable interpretation of Witkoff/Trump's motives
A woman tho, severely handicapping her wider American electoral prospects!
November 18, 2025 at 6:33 PM
A woman tho, severely handicapping her wider American electoral prospects!
wiping out $5bn that was all paper funny money he never had in the first place, or that ever actually existed in any substantive form. Stupid headline
November 18, 2025 at 6:31 PM
wiping out $5bn that was all paper funny money he never had in the first place, or that ever actually existed in any substantive form. Stupid headline
=Illegal under FCC rules
November 18, 2025 at 6:29 PM
=Illegal under FCC rules
...and financials 👀👀
November 17, 2025 at 6:03 PM
...and financials 👀👀
Looking more at the short side currently tbh!! But sustained >40% ROCE eg in Industrials seems a lot. Sounds like highly concentrated competitive structures, and interested in how M&A dynamics may have played a role in getting to that position
November 17, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Looking more at the short side currently tbh!! But sustained >40% ROCE eg in Industrials seems a lot. Sounds like highly concentrated competitive structures, and interested in how M&A dynamics may have played a role in getting to that position
Thanks, very interesting! Any chance of a quick list of the companies with a 5yr ROCE >40%
November 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Thanks, very interesting! Any chance of a quick list of the companies with a 5yr ROCE >40%
Have you calculated those sector returns bottom up, and if so have you tried excluding $TSLA from Consumer discretionary? (and $AMZN if it's in there too??)
November 17, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Have you calculated those sector returns bottom up, and if so have you tried excluding $TSLA from Consumer discretionary? (and $AMZN if it's in there too??)
Yep, China making great strides but important to remember Western makers like VW, Tesla, BMW, Stellantis, Renault , Volvo(/Polestar), etc are all serving export markets from Chinese manufacturing. A lot of hysteria currently about the imminent Euro auto industry demise in what are cyclical markets!
November 10, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Yep, China making great strides but important to remember Western makers like VW, Tesla, BMW, Stellantis, Renault , Volvo(/Polestar), etc are all serving export markets from Chinese manufacturing. A lot of hysteria currently about the imminent Euro auto industry demise in what are cyclical markets!
2/...the damage bad or corrupt leaders can do? Trump objectively shows the disastrous effects of the framers' choice of route 1, and it sounds like even natural supporters like Justice Roberts may have recently been getting queasy about this unitary executive doctrine. That cld all be an act tho!
November 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
2/...the damage bad or corrupt leaders can do? Trump objectively shows the disastrous effects of the framers' choice of route 1, and it sounds like even natural supporters like Justice Roberts may have recently been getting queasy about this unitary executive doctrine. That cld all be an act tho!
True as a general matter, but as I understand it the constitution does give the president vast powers to run foreign policy, in some areas enhanced by Congressional delegation. It's a problem of institutional design; do you give the executive vast power in hope great men do great things or limit 1/
November 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
True as a general matter, but as I understand it the constitution does give the president vast powers to run foreign policy, in some areas enhanced by Congressional delegation. It's a problem of institutional design; do you give the executive vast power in hope great men do great things or limit 1/
2/...much more appropriate to loudly and repeatedly ask what the hell is going on with the US constitutional framework to allow the president this degree of unchecked power? It is completely mad!
November 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
2/...much more appropriate to loudly and repeatedly ask what the hell is going on with the US constitutional framework to allow the president this degree of unchecked power? It is completely mad!
Exactly as say Sy Hersh documented with special forces sabotage and assassination operations against Iran in the post Iraq War era. Established practice, and v much doubt this supreme court would have any problems with it. Rather than targeting Trump, even tho he is likely bending rules, seems...1/
November 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Exactly as say Sy Hersh documented with special forces sabotage and assassination operations against Iran in the post Iraq War era. Established practice, and v much doubt this supreme court would have any problems with it. Rather than targeting Trump, even tho he is likely bending rules, seems...1/
isn't this all fully consistent with the practice and operations authorised by presidential national security findings? Seems to me what is different is only that a) Trump is boasting about it rather than maintaining secrecy and b) GOP controlled Congress gives a oversight waiver
November 1, 2025 at 5:35 PM
isn't this all fully consistent with the practice and operations authorised by presidential national security findings? Seems to me what is different is only that a) Trump is boasting about it rather than maintaining secrecy and b) GOP controlled Congress gives a oversight waiver
Or growing equities bubble fears are driving sovereign bond flight to safety...?
October 31, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Or growing equities bubble fears are driving sovereign bond flight to safety...?
Further if there is a US fiscal crisis it is in their direct and immediate interest that they are not piggy in the middle and instead have some whataboutism propaganda wiggle room. UK and JP clearly the softest targets, with 10yr yield spread over USTs not going in a helpful direction thru Trump II!
October 24, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Further if there is a US fiscal crisis it is in their direct and immediate interest that they are not piggy in the middle and instead have some whataboutism propaganda wiggle room. UK and JP clearly the softest targets, with 10yr yield spread over USTs not going in a helpful direction thru Trump II!
Fed holds a leveraged investment portfolio. It is correct to add net profits/interest income less expenses from the total. Trust funds provide operating expenditure financed by interest income. You could add back the financing but then you would have to deduct it from the budget; no net impact
October 23, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Fed holds a leveraged investment portfolio. It is correct to add net profits/interest income less expenses from the total. Trust funds provide operating expenditure financed by interest income. You could add back the financing but then you would have to deduct it from the budget; no net impact
Gangs of New York seems topical. Plus has my old mate Sean Gilder in it!
October 16, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Gangs of New York seems topical. Plus has my old mate Sean Gilder in it!