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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 15h

Let's just say that what goes on a cover - from text to design - tends to reflect a compromise between the author and the publishers...

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 19h

What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at Amazon.co.uk for a trivial 99p this month

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

I don't think there's any reason to think so, not least as Putin was dragged reluctantly into burning his relationship with Israel and kinda supporting Hamas *after* the attacks, because of the need at the time to keep Iran sweet

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

…his default is likely towards conservatism and authoritarianism. Brezhnevism or Nicholas II-ism? One died in office, the other emphatically did not. We’ll see which parallel plays out best. 10/end

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

He is, after all, risk averse, and tends to regard change as always the riskier option. Having seen both the USSR and DDR collapse around him, and regarding this as results of attempted reform and regime weakness… 9/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

But it’s hard to imagine VVP and his fellow septuagenarians able to reinvent themselves or come up with any substantive changes in direct. He *could* do all kinds of things, but will he? I suspect he’ll just plough on, hoping everything works out. 8/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

…comes political resentment. Probably not protest on any major scale – one thing the regime still does well is repression – but protest potential, a simmering undercurrent that even if not manifest in direct action, undermines coherence, productivity and morale, late Brezhnevism style. 7/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

Combined with the petrol supply crisis brought about by Ukrainian long-range strikes, this means the effort – largely successful until now – to insulate most Russians from the war will become ever harder, and with that… 6/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

This is scarring, but bearable – he can continue to fight his war. However, the civilian sector of the economy is withering, and the quality of life for most will decline: the death of the old Putin ‘stay out of politics but enjoy life’ social contract. 5/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

Meanwhile, the Russian economy is slowing down. GDP growth this year will slow to 1% or less, while inflation is not going to fall to the 4% target but hover closer to 7%. 4/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

…while he doesn’t have to fight a forever war, just be able to last longer than Ukraine, what may be a costly but viable military strategy also has serious economic and political costs at home. Is that last bit of Donetsk oblast really worth it? He seems to think so. 3/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

Obviously, there’s the war. He seems to have chosen to squander the chance to fix the current front line with a deal negotiated through Trump, so the meatgrinder continues. His gamble is clearly that he can get a better deal yet but… 2/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 1d

7 October – Putin’s 73rd birthday. I won’t wish him many happy returns, but let’s just spend a moment pondering the dilemmas that will likely face him in the coming year 1/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d

Very kind!

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Gus Moyer (梅子超) @gusmoyer.bsky.social · 2d

While listening to this podcast, @markgaleotti.bsky.social mentioned his Forged In War #book.

A masterful history of how war and insecurity, both real and perceived, have driven Russia’s destiny for centuries, including the invasion of #Ukraine.
#Audiobook #Booksky
#Kindle #Libby #Putin
#Russia

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d

Monday morning re-up: Apart from his stamina, what else can we glean from Putin's 4-hour Valdai keynote/Q&A - and how are the themes mirror-imaged in some of the most anti-Putin thinking in the West?

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 3d

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai

Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai - In Moscow's Shadows

Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the ...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d

For those who can read Finnish or don't mind using Google Translate (which does a pretty decent job), an interview on the release of my book FORGED IN WAR in translation that inevitably wanders to Ukraine, drones, etc
yle.fi/a/74-20185609

Maailmankuulun brittitutkijan viesti Putinille: Historialla ei voi perustella nykyisyyttä

Professori Mark Galeottin mukaan Putin joutuu perustelemaan Ukrainan sotaa historialla, koska hän on pettänyt lupaukset elintason nostamisesta.

yle.fi

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d

I do say that the *news* (foreign news, at least) in it is still good - it's the opinion pieces that (with the exception of Tom Sharpe's naval stuff) is unhinged or simply downright wrong

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d

And this stops drones how? And given that sabotage operations have been carried out by locals recruited online, this stops that how? This is counterproductive and xenophobic in my view.

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 3d

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai

Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai - In Moscow's Shadows

Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the ...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 3d

Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us?
The answer is, of course, both yes and no. Or rather that it is neither a quick nor perfect defence. My thoughts for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us?

Airport closures and other suspected Russian interference is showing Nato countries what’s in store if we don’t co-operate and rearm

www.thetimes.com

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4d

The loneliness of the long-distance war supporter in Russia
An insightful post from @jeremymorris.bsky.social - how accumulating discontents and concerns caused by the war manifest not as resistance so much as brittle and irritable efforts to cosplay normality
postsocialism.org/2025/10/03/t...

The loneliness of the long-distance war supporter in Russia

Irritation and isolation is the flipside of the ‘comfort’ culture. And perhaps what partly feeds demand for it. Most of all, though, war supporters feel lonely.

postsocialism.org

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 9d

Monday morning re-up: Putin has not cunningly led us all to this state of play, so much as blundered and stumbled here. So what blunders may lie in his (and our) future?

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 10d

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet maybe a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders?

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief? - In Moscow's Shadows

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. M...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 10d

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet maybe a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders?

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief? - In Moscow's Shadows

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. M...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Alucard (悪魔城下町) @akumajoukamachi.bsky.social · 10d

I was late getting to this episode, but it's a crucial one!

Especially helpful is Mark's comparison of what's going on now to the 2015 Turkish shootdown of a Russian aircraft.

You also get a snarky book review, which is always fun from Mark.

PS: It's pronounced Emperor PalpaTEEN, not PalpaTYNE. 😉

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 17d

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe? - In Moscow's Shadows

MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala'...

www.buzzsprout.com

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