Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 1d

If you know someone who might fit the bill - please send them our way! Happy to answer any questions.

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 1d

Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity

1 4 16

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

My take is: Did we lose exactly 30k jobs in September? Almost certainly not. Did we lose some jobs in September? Plausibly! Did we add enough jobs in September to keep up with population growth? Seems quite unlikely.

6

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

And thanks to Claire Jones and @financialtimes.com for the coverage: www.ft.com/content/c9f9...

AI is not killing jobs, US study finds

Research shows little evidence that cutting-edge tech such as chatbots is putting people out of work

www.ft.com

1

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

The full piece is here, please give it and all of its many many graphs a read budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eva...

Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs

budgetlab.yale.edu

1 1 6

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

Thanks to @mollykinder.bsky.social @brookings.edu for being such wonderful partners on this and to Josh and Maddie for objectively doing all the work

1 1 1

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

We plan to update this every month (assuming we get the CPS microdata!) and also to adjust our methodology in response to feedback/new data on usage/exposure. /end

1 1 2

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

The lack of widespread impacts at this early stage is not unlike the pace of change with previous periods of technological change. Preregistering areas where we would expect to see the impact and continuing to monitor monthly impacts will help us distinguish rumor from fact. 14/

1 1 1

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

While generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies, it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs. 13/

1 1 1

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative. The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not yet major disruption. 12/

1 1 1

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

We should note that data in this space is still imperfect, and usage/exposure is still evolving. Here is a comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's measures of exposure and usage for instance 11/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

And also duration of unemployment 10/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

We see a similar story using Anthropic's usage data for both automation and augmentation in employment... 9/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

And more exposed workers aren't accounting for a greater share of longer-term unemployed workers 8/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

So far there's no sign that relatively more exposure to AI is at all impacting the share of employment in those occupations 7/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

We then look at employment shares and unemployment by duration among workers who are more or less exposed to AI (according to OpenAI) and whose occupations have more or less usage (automated or augmented) according to Anthropic 6/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

If we look at how similar the occupational mix of recent college graduates is to slightly older college graduates - there may be some sign that the difference is growing? But that could be due to 1) noise 2) non-AI factors (such as a slowing labor market), not just AI 5/

1 1 3

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

In fact, taking a closer look at recent years, the data suggests that this recent trend is not necessarily attributable to AI (Figure 2). Shifts in the occupational mix were well on their way during 2021. 4/

1 1 4

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

Although recent trends seemingly outpace historical shifts in the occupational mix, the potential effects of AI on the labor market so far are not out of the ordinary. 3/

1 1 4

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

First, we look at how quickly the overall occupational mix is changing. The job mix for AI appears to be changing faster than it has in the past, although not markedly so. BUT... 2/

1 1 5

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/

2 6 20

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 6d

2 1 21

Reposted by Martha Gimbel

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 7d

3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data."
(This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait)
There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.

1 2 31

Reposted by Martha Gimbel

Upjohn Institute @upjohninstitute.bsky.social · Aug 1

We’re excited to officially welcome‪ @chloergibbs.bsky.social and @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social to the Upjohn Institute research team! Chloe brings deep expertise in education policy, while Monique’s research explores systemic inequality in economic outcomes. #EconSky

Upjohn Institute welcomes two new economists

Chloe Gibbs and Monique Davis join the research team

www.upjohn.org

4 41

Reposted by Martha Gimbel

Stacey Vanek Smith @svaneksmith.bsky.social · Jul 20

Fed Fight: It’s Trump vs Jerome Powell. Why an Independent Fed matters @chafkin.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @businessweektr.bsky.social @bloomberg.com

#jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy

3 6