Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx
@massachusettswx.bsky.social
Battles a brittle bone disease. Passionate with weather, medical and forensic psychology/Criminal Justice. He/him.
The NHEM SPV has been going through a rough start in part due to an Easterly QBO. A short-term acceleration is likely through this week, before warm activity flux begins to propagate into the Stratosphere as we near Thanksgiving. 1-2wks after, CFSV2, ECMWF-Ext, etc, show a decent pattern change.
November 2, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The NHEM SPV has been going through a rough start in part due to an Easterly QBO. A short-term acceleration is likely through this week, before warm activity flux begins to propagate into the Stratosphere as we near Thanksgiving. 1-2wks after, CFSV2, ECMWF-Ext, etc, show a decent pattern change.
Now that the month of October is over, we can finally assess what the Eurasian snow pack looks like. After a bold start, we've been steadily falling behind all other years in snow depth extent, on par with 24/25 being the 2nd least areal snow extent ever since records began in 05-06.
November 2, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Now that the month of October is over, we can finally assess what the Eurasian snow pack looks like. After a bold start, we've been steadily falling behind all other years in snow depth extent, on par with 24/25 being the 2nd least areal snow extent ever since records began in 05-06.
Cooler stormier times likely as we head into week 2 of November. ECMWF bullish on high lat blocking, but this is probably when the region see its first flakes fly.
November 2, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Cooler stormier times likely as we head into week 2 of November. ECMWF bullish on high lat blocking, but this is probably when the region see its first flakes fly.
From #Melissa's infancy to its peak intensity yesterday morning. Absolutely insane how we've been tracking this system for 20ish days.
October 29, 2025 at 9:22 PM
From #Melissa's infancy to its peak intensity yesterday morning. Absolutely insane how we've been tracking this system for 20ish days.
17 days ago today, we started to see signs on AIFS-ENS guidance and FNV3 that we would have to watch a tropical wave that would soon enter the Caribbean to become #Melissa, which went on to become one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic basin and the strongest storm to hit Jamaica ever.
October 29, 2025 at 8:51 PM
17 days ago today, we started to see signs on AIFS-ENS guidance and FNV3 that we would have to watch a tropical wave that would soon enter the Caribbean to become #Melissa, which went on to become one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic basin and the strongest storm to hit Jamaica ever.
#Melissa recently reemerged off the coast of Cuba this morning and is moving through the Turks and Caicos at this hour. USAF has been in the storm investigating it, and we've seen #Melissa took a heavy hit through Jamaica and Cuba. Significant strengthening is not expected due to westerlies.
October 29, 2025 at 8:36 PM
After a recent incident on the X account I will be temporarily moving my forecasts to Bsky. Welcome back everyone!
October 29, 2025 at 8:26 PM
After a recent incident on the X account I will be temporarily moving my forecasts to Bsky. Welcome back everyone!
Well, the EPS weeklies grossly underestimated the strength of our SPV. This would make sense due to a persistent WQBO which favors a strong PV, would correct the models in time. A disruption is likely to start the new year before potentially strengthening again later into Mid January.
December 21, 2024 at 5:13 AM
Well, the EPS weeklies grossly underestimated the strength of our SPV. This would make sense due to a persistent WQBO which favors a strong PV, would correct the models in time. A disruption is likely to start the new year before potentially strengthening again later into Mid January.
Latest snowfall map is out for tomorrow's nearby coastal system! Expecting a widespread 1-3" across the state of Massachusetts localized 4"+ just north and west of Boston. Enjoy the mood snow!
December 20, 2024 at 1:09 AM
Latest snowfall map is out for tomorrow's nearby coastal system! Expecting a widespread 1-3" across the state of Massachusetts localized 4"+ just north and west of Boston. Enjoy the mood snow!
Pacific jet is about to rage starting this upcoming weekend with impacts being felt towards the end of Christmas week. Pacific jet is lacking sustained momentum/ unfavorable low frequency background so I'm expecting this to last a week or so before the pattern drastically flips colder and stormier.
December 17, 2024 at 6:42 AM
Pacific jet is about to rage starting this upcoming weekend with impacts being felt towards the end of Christmas week. Pacific jet is lacking sustained momentum/ unfavorable low frequency background so I'm expecting this to last a week or so before the pattern drastically flips colder and stormier.
Big arctic blast could threaten the nation's midsection and east coast this weekend. This will likely be our 'bang' until Jan 2025 meaning this cold shot will be going out with a bang. After this, Pacific marine air will cover most of the US providing warmth for the rest of 2024.
December 16, 2024 at 12:33 AM
Big arctic blast could threaten the nation's midsection and east coast this weekend. This will likely be our 'bang' until Jan 2025 meaning this cold shot will be going out with a bang. After this, Pacific marine air will cover most of the US providing warmth for the rest of 2024.
Cold shot predicted in late November verified accurately in the Ohio Valley, Carolinas, Tennessee. Prominent cool bias over the Plains down to Colorado, New Mexico and most of Texas.
December 14, 2024 at 12:59 AM
Cold shot predicted in late November verified accurately in the Ohio Valley, Carolinas, Tennessee. Prominent cool bias over the Plains down to Colorado, New Mexico and most of Texas.
Anyone outdoors just noticed a temp change? You're not alone! A cold front just came by!!
December 12, 2024 at 6:08 AM
Anyone outdoors just noticed a temp change? You're not alone! A cold front just came by!!
Our rainstorm is just getting started! Worth noting there’s cold temps out ahead of the storm. Some ice is possible. Stay safe out there early this morning. All ice will melt by mid afternoon when temps are expected to soar.
December 11, 2024 at 8:47 AM
Our rainstorm is just getting started! Worth noting there’s cold temps out ahead of the storm. Some ice is possible. Stay safe out there early this morning. All ice will melt by mid afternoon when temps are expected to soar.
Looks like SPC has pulled the trigger on a very rare Slight Risk for southernmost portion of MA, most of RI and southeastern CT for locally damaging winds upwards of 60mph with a couple flashes of lightning possible. Please secure all loose outdoor items or bring them inside for the storm.
December 11, 2024 at 6:09 AM
Looks like SPC has pulled the trigger on a very rare Slight Risk for southernmost portion of MA, most of RI and southeastern CT for locally damaging winds upwards of 60mph with a couple flashes of lightning possible. Please secure all loose outdoor items or bring them inside for the storm.
There will be some CAD going on from a current high pressure system in southeast Canada, as the storm rapidly intensifies to our west, it will force the high in SE Canada to lift away along with strong low level jet stream will cause temps to soar and winds will quickly follow after.
December 11, 2024 at 12:43 AM
There will be some CAD going on from a current high pressure system in southeast Canada, as the storm rapidly intensifies to our west, it will force the high in SE Canada to lift away along with strong low level jet stream will cause temps to soar and winds will quickly follow after.
The trough will take another ~18hrs or so before it turns negative. This will enhance the storm's ability to rapidly intensify with heavy downpours and damaging winds upwards to 70mph+ on the coastline of MA, decreasing the more inland you go.
December 11, 2024 at 12:30 AM
The trough will take another ~18hrs or so before it turns negative. This will enhance the storm's ability to rapidly intensify with heavy downpours and damaging winds upwards to 70mph+ on the coastline of MA, decreasing the more inland you go.
Our storm tomorrow is aided by this positive trough aimed at Texas, throughout the evening/night diurnal convection will increase in both frequency and intensity which will help release a lot of latent heat from our system to the downstream ridge. THIS will begin the storm's journey.
December 11, 2024 at 12:28 AM
Our storm tomorrow is aided by this positive trough aimed at Texas, throughout the evening/night diurnal convection will increase in both frequency and intensity which will help release a lot of latent heat from our system to the downstream ridge. THIS will begin the storm's journey.
According to model analysis, tomorrow morning, Tuesday December 10th, 2024 will be the first day the Western Pacific Oscillation values turns positive since ~22.5 days ago!
December 9, 2024 at 9:29 PM
According to model analysis, tomorrow morning, Tuesday December 10th, 2024 will be the first day the Western Pacific Oscillation values turns positive since ~22.5 days ago!
Our Stratospheric Polar Vortex has peaked at its healthiest strength ~50 m/s last night! There's a potential for one more peak in strength next week before the SPV takes a beaten from strat warming in Siberia, western Russia and the UK.
December 8, 2024 at 9:55 PM
Our Stratospheric Polar Vortex has peaked at its healthiest strength ~50 m/s last night! There's a potential for one more peak in strength next week before the SPV takes a beaten from strat warming in Siberia, western Russia and the UK.
People inside 95 have finally flipped over to snow for the first time of the 2024-25 winter season! Stay safe getting out the door tomorrow for school,work, etc. Some school districts have decided to delay start of school day. Listen to your local officials for school related info.
December 5, 2024 at 6:55 AM
People inside 95 have finally flipped over to snow for the first time of the 2024-25 winter season! Stay safe getting out the door tomorrow for school,work, etc. Some school districts have decided to delay start of school day. Listen to your local officials for school related info.
New unexpected snow map issued due to abrupt model trends which are cooler. Right now, I would think areas inside 495 and inside 95 have a chance for 2-3" but I am restricted by the boundaries of Winter Weather Advisory placements by the NWS. Enjoy the system, everyone!
December 5, 2024 at 12:36 AM
New unexpected snow map issued due to abrupt model trends which are cooler. Right now, I would think areas inside 495 and inside 95 have a chance for 2-3" but I am restricted by the boundaries of Winter Weather Advisory placements by the NWS. Enjoy the system, everyone!
Big time uncertainty on the 00z EPS for both the NAO and EPO teleconnection domain. It'll likely be a rough ride for models in the days ahead as we battle with persistent -EAMT,MJO promoting warmth. Low frequency forcing, warm SSTs south of Alaska supporting continued -EPO/+TNH pattern.
December 4, 2024 at 7:46 AM
Big time uncertainty on the 00z EPS for both the NAO and EPO teleconnection domain. It'll likely be a rough ride for models in the days ahead as we battle with persistent -EAMT,MJO promoting warmth. Low frequency forcing, warm SSTs south of Alaska supporting continued -EPO/+TNH pattern.
Here's my final snowfall map for tomorrow night into Thursday. While east of 495 likely gets mostly rain, I have included C-1" for the snow squall potential after the system passes on Thursday morning. Take it easy folks west of 495!
December 4, 2024 at 2:14 AM
Here's my final snowfall map for tomorrow night into Thursday. While east of 495 likely gets mostly rain, I have included C-1" for the snow squall potential after the system passes on Thursday morning. Take it easy folks west of 495!