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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 13d

Maybe Johnson and the freedmen? (I'm just guessing, no source).

Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

I’m perfectly willing to concede that my analysis is offering some terrible reasoning if your assessment of the ‘26 election is correct.

But I also don’t see how shutting down the government accomplishes anything of value in your scenario.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Assume your assessment is correct. How does shutdown now help anything? Wouldn’t a better time for drastic action be after you’ve won the election and reveal the regime to be illegitimately holding power? And in the interim do all you can to win that election?

Like, what’s success under a shutdown?

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

This is all meant to be optimistic, Tom. I'm sorry you are so down on the state of the country and our politics.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

What probability do you assign to your theory being wrong? Seems like there might be some sort of Pascal's Wager to be had here strategically.

Fully admitting I'm no normie Dem, I'm not convinced you've correctly identified their current demeanor and/or possible electoral reaction to (non)events.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Well, that's certainly fair. If there's no point in contesting '26 because it literally can't be won by the opposition, the calculus definitely changes and strategic analysis based on winning it is moot/bad.

On the upside, if the Dems *do* win the '26 elections, we can falsify your assessment.

assessment.im

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Six, I think.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Also, you aren’t trying to “not pay a heavy price.” You are trying to win. No one ever has.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Absent the shutdown fight, decent chance Clinton loses in ‘96. He was absolutely spiraling in 1995.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

But I don't want to misconstrue your arg, because maybe you just think a shutdown isn't a worse option than not a shutdown, and the point is that a shutdown is actually the best policy/electoral move because it energizes people rather than depresses them. Also not obviously wrong! (tho I disagree).

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

But your argument seems to be that avoiding a shutdown might be the "least-worst option" but it's still bad because...it's "surrender?"

That doesn't make any sense to me, and seems like a pride argument of the form "the things that win feel bad so I'll feel good rather than win." 2/

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

I'm not sure I'm following your argument here. My view is that a shutdown right now will result in no policy gains and make the Dems worse off WRT the '26 election. If you disagree, totally reasonable. I could be wrong! 1/

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

Wait, what's the alternative to winning the next election?

My whole point is that shutting down the government is counterproductive to that end.

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Reposted by Matt Glassman

Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 29d

Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p...

And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi...

We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29d

My view on strategic shutdowns: bad policy, bad politics.

open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

A Strategic Shutdown is a Terrible Idea

It's bad policy. It's worse politics. But a lot of liberal Dems are pushing for it.

open.substack.com

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Sep 4

Well, this restaurant just opened in DC. OMFG.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Sep 4

Well, this restaurant just opened in DC. OMFG.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Sep 2

I wrote about pocket rescissions, PTA meetings, and the problem of treating plainly absurd actions as technical legalistic questions.

open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

Is that a rescission in your pocket?

I-C-A looming problem for congressional spending supremacy.

open.substack.com

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Sep 2

Thanks!

Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Aug 23

Today has always been one of my sneaky favorite sports days: Little League World Series American Championship game, followed directly by the Travers from Saratoga. Great side-sports double.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Jul 13

P(A|B) = (P(B|A)*P(A))/P(B)

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Jul 2

That's not to say they won't bring things down---temporarily or for real. They might!

But the Kicking and Screaming was/is coming in either case, so it doesn't give you a lot of predictive info.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Jul 2

The Kicking and Screaming *is* the message.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Jul 2

Obviously, we can't *know* how this will go but it's worth remembering that, for the HFC (and often others), this pseudo-drama *itself* is a necessary component of the side-payment in exchange for their vote, not something you could have avoided had you taken a different path.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · Jul 2

And that's the rub. If the bill *does* get changed---for any reason---and necessarily will have to go back to the Senate, then making a change to kill this becomes a *lot* easier. But again, that seems unlikely.

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