Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Max Dugan-Knight

@maxduganknight.bsky.social

5.3K followers 1.3K following 210 posts

📈 Climate Data Scientist 💼 at Deep Sky 🇨🇦 based in Toronto 👀 https://www.deepskyclimate.com/research also Arsenal ⚽️ and hip hop 🎧

www.deepskyclimate.com

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Pinned

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Apr 16

We just hit a new global temperature record.

Thursday was the hottest April 10th in modern decades.

It was 1.67°C above the pre-industrial average.

(The second highest was 2024 at 1.65°C.)

www.deepskyclimate.com/data-dashboa...

Daily global temperature anomaly chart showing new record reached on Thursday, April 10th at 1.67°C above the pre-industrial average.

1 41 94

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 7d

Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏

Graph showing global temperature change from 1 year of emissions. The temperature impact is very persistent (1000+ years)

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 7d

That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 7d

Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 7d

Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right.

You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 8d

@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever!

Thanks in advance 🙏

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · 8d

I sure did! Apologies

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 7

Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else.

It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 7

Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year.

There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.

1 1

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 7

Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk

2 5

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...

Catastrophe Risk Modeling – Moody’s

Quantify and manage natural catastrophe risk with Moody's RMS catastrophe modeling solutions. Gain a deeper understanding of your portfolio's exposures.

www.moodys.com

1 1

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented.

I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.

How near-to-present are we talking?

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.”

The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.

1 8

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.

2 1 2

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes.

www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels

The home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.

www.deepskyclimate.com

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

"Before the fires, it would not have been possible to buy on the beach in Malibu at a price this low".

How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

But the difference between what the climate risk data show and what the other sources quoted in the article are saying is a perfect encapsulation of the madness in the US real estate sector right now.

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article.

And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Aug 6

It’s not often I strongly disagree with every other person quoted in an article in which I am also quoted.

But I have to admit that’s true of this @businessinsider.com story that came out Sunday.

www.businessinsider.com/malibu-ocean...

Empty lots in Malibu destroyed by the LA fires are now on the market for millions

Homes burned to the ground in Malibu during a wildfire seven months ago. The now empty lots are selling for millions.

www.businessinsider.com

3 3 3

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 17

Is it fair to say that the precipitation distribution is getting flatter — fewer days at the mean and more at the extremes at both ends (downpours and no rainfall) ?

I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 16

This confusion is part of why the obsession with global average temperature bothers me.

Climate change is operating at the extreme ends of the distribution (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

If you just look at the average you’re missing the biggest impacts.

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · Jul 16

The discourse surrounding precipitation changes in a warming climate (both public discussion and even scientific one at times) is complicated by widespread conflation of changes in averages vs extremes (and also actual vs *potential* evaporation/evaporative demand). [Thread]

1 4

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 16

What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke 💨

Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.

1 1

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 16

Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada 🥵

I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Fire risk map of Canada showing FWI anomaly at mid-July point

1 1 1

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 16

In our spring report about the upcoming wildfire season we projected abnormally high risk in several parts of Western Canada 🇨🇦

But the fires so far have surpassed my expectations.

Here's our latest update on wildfire risk in Canada

www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/wildfir...

Wildfire risk escalates across Canada as summer conditions intensify

Canada is facing an unusually severe and widespread wildfire season, with hot, dry conditions fueling fires across western, central, and now eastern provinces—aligning with Deep Sky Research’s forecas...

www.deepskyclimate.com

1 2 8

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 15

But none of this is easy.

Addressing climate change means making clear to everyone how it is already hurting people.

Food scarcity is going to be a big one.

1 1 4

Max Dugan-Knight @maxduganknight.bsky.social · Jul 15

This is one of those slow-moving trends with many input variables that's hard to directly attribute to climate change.

If we struggle to connect deadly storms and flooding with climate change, helping the public understand how climate change is impacting food security will not be easy.

1 1 4