Peter McLeod
@mcleodp.bsky.social
Opinion polls and focus groups, UK and elsewhere.
Then: Portal 2. Now: Dark Souls.
December 20, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Then: Portal 2. Now: Dark Souls.
Maybe Pep has earned the right to make his own choices on tactics, and earned some patience from fans when things don't look that good right away.
December 16, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Maybe Pep has earned the right to make his own choices on tactics, and earned some patience from fans when things don't look that good right away.
There is some polling out there, I think the big Persuasion piece from spring, showing reform-curious Lab are more common in Scotland than elsewhere. I'd guess mostly pro-union ex Tories. But generally, strong agree that the bloc model breaks down in Scotland.
December 12, 2025 at 5:32 PM
There is some polling out there, I think the big Persuasion piece from spring, showing reform-curious Lab are more common in Scotland than elsewhere. I'd guess mostly pro-union ex Tories. But generally, strong agree that the bloc model breaks down in Scotland.
Ah this was magical wasn't it. Brought my 10 year old for his first big gig.
December 6, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Ah this was magical wasn't it. Brought my 10 year old for his first big gig.
A personal favourite:
theonion.com/five-or-six-...
theonion.com/five-or-six-...
Five Or Six Dudes Jump Out Of Nowhere And Just Start Whaling On This One Guy
BOULDER, CO–Shock and disbelief were the prevailing reactions Monday, when pizza-delivery guy Lyle Kelso, 24, reported to roommates that at around 2 or 3 a.m., he personally witnessed, like, five or s...
theonion.com
December 4, 2025 at 7:49 AM
A personal favourite:
theonion.com/five-or-six-...
theonion.com/five-or-six-...
See also:
theonion.com/starbucks-to...
theonion.com/starbucks-to...
Starbucks To Begin Sinister 'Phase Two' Of Operation
SEATTLE–After a decade of aggressive expansion throughout North America and abroad, Starbucks suddenly and unexpectedly closed its 2,870 worldwide locations Monday to prepare for what company insiders...
theonion.com
December 4, 2025 at 7:35 AM
See also:
theonion.com/starbucks-to...
theonion.com/starbucks-to...
Paraphrasing, but "Scientific Study Finds College Binge Drinking A Total Blast"
December 4, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Paraphrasing, but "Scientific Study Finds College Binge Drinking A Total Blast"
Keeping the original name was... A choice, I guess.
December 3, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Keeping the original name was... A choice, I guess.
So - don't take majority support for X as meaning very much. Find out how it does relative to other options, and what other parties are offering. Find out how important it really is to voters. See how they feel about the trade-offs.
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
So - don't take majority support for X as meaning very much. Find out how it does relative to other options, and what other parties are offering. Find out how important it really is to voters. See how they feel about the trade-offs.
Then there are the trade-offs. Should we do X *instead of* Y? Should we spend tax money on X? Should we *raise* tax to do X? And, especially relevant to campaigners, does advocating X in the short window of time that voters are listening help us more than Y, Z, A or B?
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Then there are the trade-offs. Should we do X *instead of* Y? Should we spend tax money on X? Should we *raise* tax to do X? And, especially relevant to campaigners, does advocating X in the short window of time that voters are listening help us more than Y, Z, A or B?
Look also for credible measures of what matters to people. You can get super-high agreement with policies on all sorts of things that won't move support for the party adopting them at all, because they're not about the things voters care about.
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Look also for credible measures of what matters to people. You can get super-high agreement with policies on all sorts of things that won't move support for the party adopting them at all, because they're not about the things voters care about.
You need to be able to compare, across policy options, across what different parties are offering, and across time, to get a real sense of what plays well and badly.
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
You need to be able to compare, across policy options, across what different parties are offering, and across time, to get a real sense of what plays well and badly.
Polls have a systematic agreement bias, for one thing. The agree/disagree scale is worst, and watch out also for importance scales that always seem to show everything is important. But most things tested in polls are positively phrased and sound like the sort of thing that ought to happen.
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Polls have a systematic agreement bias, for one thing. The agree/disagree scale is worst, and watch out also for importance scales that always seem to show everything is important. But most things tested in polls are positively phrased and sound like the sort of thing that ought to happen.
You see them all the time: 55% of the public would support the government doing X. This is fine, but you really shouldn't read them as "the government/party would benefit from doing X."
December 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
You see them all the time: 55% of the public would support the government doing X. This is fine, but you really shouldn't read them as "the government/party would benefit from doing X."
Actually looks fairly big: Reform has a higher % of past non-voters than other parties, despite current likelihood to vote being similar to LD and higher than Lab. Reasonable to expect some losses from a pact, but, uh, More Research Needed.
December 3, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Actually looks fairly big: Reform has a higher % of past non-voters than other parties, despite current likelihood to vote being similar to LD and higher than Lab. Reasonable to expect some losses from a pact, but, uh, More Research Needed.
You're talking Con19 -> Ref24 voters? I guess some of them might be disappointed about a Tory pact, and IDK that group very well, but would currently assume most are big enough Farage fans they stick with him regardless.
December 3, 2025 at 9:33 AM
You're talking Con19 -> Ref24 voters? I guess some of them might be disappointed about a Tory pact, and IDK that group very well, but would currently assume most are big enough Farage fans they stick with him regardless.
Yep, 40% no chance Reform, and what those people do in the pact scenario is super important. From a Lab perspective, you want to enable anti-Farage Tories to stay home, vote LD or even Lab, right?
December 3, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Yep, 40% no chance Reform, and what those people do in the pact scenario is super important. From a Lab perspective, you want to enable anti-Farage Tories to stay home, vote LD or even Lab, right?
Polling suggests about 60% of current Tory voters have at least some chance of voting Reform.
December 3, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Polling suggests about 60% of current Tory voters have at least some chance of voting Reform.
During the 2024 campaign I tracked their front pages and by my count they ran with a Tory line 17 times and Labour 6 times.
December 3, 2025 at 8:56 AM
During the 2024 campaign I tracked their front pages and by my count they ran with a Tory line 17 times and Labour 6 times.