mat marques, ph.d.
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mdmarques.com
mat marques, ph.d.
@mdmarques.com
2.5K followers 450 following 500 posts
bicycles, coffee, and social psychology.
researches the causes and consequences of #conspiracytheories
he/him. woiworung land.
https://mdmarques.com
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mdmarques.com
exploring rockpools
Rockpools (and reflections) at low tide with some people around them. blue skies im background with light cloud cover
January 2, 2026 at 6:58 AM
mdmarques.com
often imitated, never surpassed

buy the original zapatopi.net/afdb/
side image of a dummy wearing tin foil on their head
January 1, 2026 at 10:12 PM
mdmarques.com
managed 10,000km for the year on the bike and it was only possible as I was supported by a wonderful family. only fitting most of them joined me for the final few kms to hit the milestone
boy riding a bike on a side gravel bike path out of saddle woman following young boy both on bicycles on a road
December 29, 2025 at 10:39 PM
mdmarques.com
thankful to have friends who also enjoy the joys of riding in the hills
two cyclists side by side heading up a windey road climb surrounded by lush forest greenery
December 28, 2025 at 8:49 AM
mdmarques.com
post a perfect album from the 90s that isn't nirvana, pearl jam, soundgarden, or alice in chains
Jeff Buckley Grace cover
December 28, 2025 at 3:14 AM
mdmarques.com
wood fired pizza prep for family tonight
Bench with pizza ingredients. Vaseline with tomato, condiments and a few pizza balls ready to roll out
December 27, 2025 at 5:29 AM
mdmarques.com
Testing the socio-functional model: Does precarity
cause conspiracy belief?
TLDR; probably not
huge thx: Antipodean Misinformation and Conspiracies Club @matthewmatix.bsky.social @lingtax.bsky.social @scicomguy.bsky.social @srhastraea.bsky.social @eddieclarke.bsky.social & students osf.io/nq3y7/
Abstract Research seeking to explain why people believe conspira- cies has largely focused on intrapsychic factors, but there is growing research examining structural-level elements of dis- advantage. The socio-functional model of conspiracy belief (Adam-Troian et al., 2023, British Journal of Social Psycholog y, 62, 136) posits that subjective feelings of permanent inse- curity arising from objective material strain (i.e., precarity) cause conspiracy belief directly or indirectly through insti- tutional distrust. Across three preregistered studies using observational longitudinal designs over 3 (n = 637) and 11 months (n = 832), and a between-group experimental de- sign (n = 285), we use various methods to estimate causal ef- fects for this proposition during the current cost-of-living crisis. In Studies 1 and 2 using random intercept cross- lagged panel models, we find no evidence that increases in precarity temporally precede increases in conspiracy belief (or vice versa) but find stable between-persons effects over time. In Study 3, despite successfully manipulating precarity using a self-imagine paradigm, we find no direct or indirect effect on conspiracy belief through decreased government trust. We discuss the importance of using methods that per- mit credible causal inferences and key directions for future studies investigating the socio-functional model.
December 27, 2025 at 4:12 AM
mdmarques.com
Belief in science-related conspiracy theories is not just a matter of knowledge: The democratic quality of countries as a protective factor
@irelopeznavarro.bsky.social & Santos-Requej

journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
Abstract Concerns regarding the increasing prevalence of conspiracy theory beliefs are growing in public discourse. This study investigates science-related conspiracy theories due to their significant potential impact on individual and global health. Using data from a Special Eurobarometer survey (n = 37,079), our research demonstrates the importance of considering public perceptions of science when trying to understand the acceptance of such conspiracy theory beliefs. They are strongly associated with mistrust in scientists and lower level of knowledge. But there is a key factor at the country level, the quality of democracy, which plays a protective role against the acceptance of unwarranted beliefs. Even individuals with lower levels of knowledge or greater mistrust of scientists are less likely to believe in science-related conspiracy theories if they live in democratic countries than in authoritarian states.
December 22, 2025 at 12:14 AM
mdmarques.com
good morning. I think our dog is broken.
A black Labrador named Bowie on a run on his back with legs in the air relaxing
December 17, 2025 at 8:13 PM
mdmarques.com
Longitudinal analysis shows possible distinct patterns of associations between conspiracy beliefs and either institutional distrust or the sense of precarity

findings here suggest b/w person associations over time, rather than w/i changes

bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Magdalena Adamus, Jakub Šrol, Eva Ballová Mikušková, Jais Adam-Troian, Maria Chayinska Abstract The paper reports longitudinal analyses examining the extent to which institutional trust mediates the relationship between individuals' sense of precarity and their adherence to conspiracy beliefs. Across three waves, 925 participants (50.2% female) between the ages of 18 and 85 (M = 49.53; SD = 15.81) reported subjective appraisals of their financial situation (precarity), trust in institutions and adherence to conspiracy beliefs. The current study extends the previous analyses by including three-wave longitudinal data. The preregistered autoregressive cross-lagged panel model supports the notion that a sense of precarity follows adherence to conspiracy beliefs rather than preceding them, while institutional (dis)trust and conspiracy beliefs show a bidirectional pattern. However, the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model does not corroborate this, suggesting that the effects may be driven by stable between-person differences rather than actual within-person changes. Additionally, the latter model reveals two separate temporal patterns linking conspiracy beliefs with either the sense of precarity or institutional trust, opening the possibility that our results were driven by two distinct underlying mechanisms. The paper discusses the importance of longitudinal studies for a more accurate understanding of social-psychological realities in which conspiracy beliefs and suspicions of institutions may flourish.
December 16, 2025 at 8:48 PM
mdmarques.com
Does Repetition Increase Perceived Truth Equally for Conspiracy and Trivia Statements?
@shaunambowes.bsky.social @lkfazio.bsky.social
see osf.io/b2pk4/

implications include for the monological belief theory, hearing/believing in on CT -> belief in others (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....)
December 14, 2025 at 11:52 PM
mdmarques.com
I think I see smoke coming out of this Dell work computer
Beginning Time: 09:36:38 Ending Time: 10:18:08 Elapsed Time: 00:41:30 MUTHEN & MUTHEN 3463 Stoner Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90066 Tel: (310) 391-9971 Fax: (310) 391-8971 Web: www.StatModel.com Support: Support@StatModel.com Copyright (c) 1998-2023 Muthen & Muthen
December 10, 2025 at 12:03 AM
mdmarques.com
here's the abstract and I look forward to seeing the accepted manuscript in print.
Abstract Research seeking to explain why people believe conspiracies has largely focused on intrapsychic factors, but there is growing research examining structural level elements of disadvantage. The socio-functional model of conspiracy belief (Adam-Troian et al., 2023) posits that subjective feelings of permanent insecurity arising from objective material strain (i.e., precarity) causes conspiracy belief directly or indirectly through institutional distrust. Across three preregistered studies using observational longitudinal designs over 3 (n = 637) and 11 months (n = 832), and a between-groups experimental design (n = 285), we use various methods to estimate causal effects for this proposition during the current cost-of-living crisis. In Studies 1 and 2 using random intercept cross-lagged panel models we find no evidence that increases in precarity temporally precede increases in conspiracy belief (or vice-versa), but find stable between-persons effects over time. In Study 3, despite successfully manipulating precarity using a self-imagine paradigm, we find no direct or indirect effect on conspiracy belief through decreased government trust. We discuss the importance of using methods that permit credible causal inferences, and key directions for future studies investigating the socio-functional model.
December 8, 2025 at 5:46 AM
mdmarques.com
this is a month late, but to all who celebrate

"Loved hanging out today in Wuhan, China. Ate some seriously interesting things (more to come about that) and met some beautiful people. China is stunning in so many ways"

www.instagram.com/p/B4XOiijjxs...
www.facebook.com/guysebastian...
Guy Sebastian wearing a red tee shirt doing a zen? sign with his left hand near a local in Wuhan China dated November 2 2019. Text reads: Loved hanging out today in Wuhan, China. Ate some seriously interesting things (more to come about that) and met some beautiful people. China is stunning in so many ways #China #LetMeDrink
December 2, 2025 at 11:51 PM
mdmarques.com
Short Dialogues with AI Reduce Belief in Antisemitic Conspiracy Theories

www.adl.org/resources/re...
November 27, 2025 at 11:03 PM
mdmarques.com
our dear leader @matthewmatix.bsky.social has posted on what the Antipodean Misinformation and Conspiracies Club has been up to over the past few years

www.royalsociety.org.nz/research/new...
November 26, 2025 at 12:09 AM
mdmarques.com
honestly, I hope this paper leads to some serious discussion because it has some key important learnings.

also I think some of us feel like we missed a beat in not labeling it the 'moustache' effect (as we do in private), so we'll have to be happy with M or W effects in public.
Highlights The midpoint of the left–right self-placement item is hiding important political diversity and may be conflating moderate responders with populists and other political subgroups. Survey researchers should consider this problem when examining relationships between political orientation and political attitudes. We suggest testing for nonlinearity in these relationships, and measuring anti-establishment and populist beliefs separately. Researchers interested in building theories explaining the psychological underpinnings of ideological extremism should also consider the possibility that a qualitatively different type of ideological extremist self-places on the midpoint.
October 23, 2025 at 6:04 AM
mdmarques.com
my kind of research. cycling and politics!

"We find that even brief, positive interventions move
votes away from the far right, which is in line with the left-behind accounts"

sciety-discovery.elifesciences.org/articles/by?...
Cycling through Elections: The Political Consequences of the Tour de France Ala Alrababah Maelle Delouis-Jost Germain Gauthier Adam Polak Abstract Do place-based interventions that raise visibility and economic activity affect far-right voting? We study the Tour de France (TdF) as a case of brief but visible exposure that combines economic activity with symbolic recognition. Using variation in the annual TdF route between 2002 and 2022, we show that exposed municipalities experience declines in far-right support of 0.03–0.04 standard deviations. The effect exceeds 0.1 standard deviations in recent elections and is strongest in poorer areas and in towns with high prior far-right support. We find evidence consistent with the symbolic mechanism and mixed evidence for the economic one. TdF exposure increases local GDP per capita, effects on voting are larger when French riders win stages, and a two-wave survey around the 2025 TdF provides suggestive evidence that residents in exposed towns report greater recognition. These results contribute to research on geographic inequalities, symbolic politics, and the consequences of place-based interventions.
October 22, 2025 at 10:13 PM
mdmarques.com
this morning, a sobering and important read

It’s (a) Shame: Why Poverty Leads to Support for Authoritarianism
@neerdaels.bsky.social, Tröster & Van Quaquebeke

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Abstract The literature has widely discussed and supported the relationship between poverty and support for authoritarian leaders and regimes. However, there are different claims about the mediating mechanism and a lack of empirical tests. We hypothesize that the effect of poverty on support for authoritarianism is mediated by shame: People living in poverty frequently experience social exclusion and devaluation, which is reflected in feelings of shame. Such shame, in turn, is likely to increase support for authoritarianism, mainly due to the promise of social re-inclusion. We support our hypothesis in two controlled experiments and a large-scale field study while empirically ruling out the two main alternative explanations offered in the literature: stress and anxiety. Finally, we discuss how the present findings can support policymakers in efficiently addressing the negative political consequences of poverty.
October 16, 2025 at 10:55 PM
mdmarques.com
picked up a copy of this at a local--although it was described as a coffee table book to me, maybe for tiny coffee tables? (h/t @lingtax.bsky.social)

"This book deals with Design and Conspiracy Theories, two things that are often thought of as opposites"

www.setmargins.press/books/conspi...
Holding a copy of a small book titled Conspiratorial Design with timber decking floor in the background.
October 15, 2025 at 9:09 PM
mdmarques.com
October 5, 2025 at 5:48 AM
mdmarques.com
amazing (first time for me) visit to royal botanic gardens. incredible flora and fauna (also saw a bandicoot)
October 5, 2025 at 5:47 AM
mdmarques.com
my TV viewing buddy (Bowie) fast asleep during the UCI Elite Men's Road World Championship
#couchpeloton
Black Labrador sleeping on couch with television on in background with UCI Cycling Qorld Championships Elite Men race
September 28, 2025 at 9:32 AM
mdmarques.com
here are two examples of expert science communication around the links between paracetamol/tylenol and autism--responding to medical myths.

on the left is a good example, where the myth is raised, explained, evidence provided to explain lack of support for the myth.

one on the right, not so much.
Australia’s peak medical body, the Australian Medical Association (AMA), said no studies supported the Trump administration’s claims linking paracetamol to autism in children. The AMA president, Dr Danielle McMullen, told ABC radio that some studies had shown an “association”. “But there’s also been really large studies showing that there’s no association,” she said. “And it’s important to remember that association doesn’t mean cause. It could be that there’s a whole range of things that happened during pregnancies, and one of those was that the pregnant mother took paracetamol, but it also could be that she had a fever or there were genetic factors. “In fact, in autism, it’s most likely that autism is linked with genetic factors as its primary driver but we really don’t know the full cause of autism.” Scientific research has shown there might be a link between paracetamol use in pregnancy and autism, but no causal relationship has been proven. “Evidence is mixed,” said Associate Professor Kevin Yap from La Trobe University. Australian researchers have also warned that, contrary to Trump’s advice, there are risks from not treating high fever during pregnancy. A sustained high fever is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage, stillbirth and fetal malformations. Experts advise that paracetamol is the safest way to control a fever in pregnancy.
September 23, 2025 at 1:47 AM
mdmarques.com
good point. I think pushing the narrative that taking them separately is somehow safer--despite the available evidence, but you know feelings!--not only erodes confidence, but a bunch of other factors that feed into vaccination decision (see BeSD framework)
September 22, 2025 at 10:26 PM