How much more likely would this make 1.5C this year? What average temp anom would we have to make the rest of the year after this event?

Seems like it will be a brief dip

And we won't know until it does fall, because of NOAA funding cuts 😜

Another major drop in both JAXA and NSIDC datasets today puts the lid on extent for this year (-89k and -70k, respectively), but area is still in an upswing. Though unlikely to continue for more than another day with incoming heat on the Atlantic side.

Not a guarantee that it will happen, but this is usually how they begin, heat emerging on eastern side and spreading west, currently spreading into Nino 3 area

The Nino 1+2 region has been particularly impressive:

Doesn't seem like 'the girl' will stick around for long...