Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 37m

Mr Fico's gov't coalition has not stopped on its downward trend that's not fully offset by the rise of the non-parliamentary Republika (ESN), per October estimates by NMS.

The center/-right opposition bloc of PS (RE) SaS (ECR) D (EPP) continues to enjoy its highest levels of support to date.

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 6h

Slovakia's gov't parties Smer and Hlas are about where their voters are in the ideological space. The parliamentary opposition, not so much — per new NMS estimates.

More the case of the econ dim than the lib-con one, the oppo mostly to the right of their voters there.

nms.global/sk/politicke...

A chart showing 7 political compass style charts with the placements of 7 Slovakia's parties and their voters in a 2-dim ideological space as estimated by an NMS poll and CHES.

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 3d

The price in votes of a seat in the lower house of the Czech parliament.

A chart showing the price in votes of a seat in the Czech parliament (Czech National Council 1990-1992, Chamber of Deputies 1996-2025.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 3d

How Mr Babiš's ANO (PfE, ex-RE) traveled from the liberal-right quadrant to the left-conservative one, as captured by @chesdata.bsky.social

With a comparison with fellow Central European social-national peers Mr Orbán's Fidesz (PfE, ex EPP) an Mr Fico's Smer (NI, ex-S&D).

A political compass chart showing the travel of the three parties since 2002 (or later, if younger), as estimated by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 4d

Looks like neither the Social Democrats nor the Communists will make it into the Czech parliament this time either.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 5d

The rise in political polarization across the world,
2008 → 2015 → 2024, as estimated by V-Dem and DSP

@vdeminstitute.bsky.social @digitalsocietyproject.org

A chart showing the shares of the world's population under different levels of political polarization understood as division into antagonistic camps.

A chart showing the shares of the world's population under different levels of polarization understood as disagreement on the direction of society.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 6d

Morocco is also experiencing youth protests.

14% of Moroccans is 18-26, 30% below 18, per UN WPP estimates.

In the past years, Morocco has experienced moderate levels of mobilization for democracy as well as for autocracy, per @vdeminstitute.bsky.social estimates.

A chart showing the population pyramid of Morocco on 1 Jan 2025 as estimated by the median projections of UN WPP 2024.

A chart showing the values of several of V-Dem's indices for Morocco 1900-2024. These inlcude
Electoral Democracy Index
Political Corruption index
Rule of law index
Mobilization for autocracy
Mobilization for democracy

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 6d

The 2021 Czech election was the first one without a party descended from the Habsburg-era Social Democrats making it to the lower house of the Czech/-oslovak parliament.

Now, polls show that the Social Democrats and the Communists have a chance of returning this week, both on the Stačilo! list.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 7d

• ½ of Madagascar's inhabitants are below 27
• ⅓ are below 18
per UN WPP estimates.

• political corruption is relatively high
• rule of law relatively low
• mobilization for democracy has been high in the past few years
per @vdeminstitute.bsky.social estimates.

A chart showing the population pyramid of Madagascar on 1 Jan 2025 as estimated by the median projections of the UN WPP 2024.

A chart showing the following five V-Dem indices for Madagascar, 1960-2024

- Electoral Democracy Index
- Political Corruption
- Rule of Law Index
- Mobilization for autocracy
- Mobilization for democracy

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 9d

Another election betting market catching up at the last minute, this time in Moldova.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 11d

Hi and bye | Recycling

(still lives with Nam June Paik)

A photo of an artwork by Nam June Paik in a corridor in the World Bank HQ.

A photo of a Nam June Paik print Olympic Games (1992) in a corridor at Durham University.

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 11d

Yesterday, Mr Fico's gov't Smer+Hlas+SNS amended Slovakia's constitution with the help of KDH (EPP). Current polling gives the four parties less than the needed 90 votes even with the out-of-parliament Republika (ESN) added.

Two of ex PM Matovič's MPs (EPP) also voted with the gov't.

a chart showing the seat projections for the following five Slovakian parties added together: Smer Hlas KDH SNS Republika

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 12d

September poll by AKO finds the support of ex-PM Matovič's ex-OĽaNO (EPP) [for now "Hnutie Slovensko"] heavily skewed towards men [dark blue in the chart, women are in light blue]. This skew is even heavier than those of the far-right Republika (ESN) and the center-right liberal SaS (ECR).

A chart comparing the support of Slovakia's parties among men and among women. Source: https://www.noviny.sk/politika/1111185-exkluzivny-prieskum-volby-by-vyhralo-ps-ale-zostavovanie-vlady-by-bol-hlavolam

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 13d

Finally, the center / center-right opposition: PS (RE), KDH (EPP), SaS (ECR), D (EPP), Hnutie Slovensko [formerly OLaNO] (EPP).

4/4

A chart with pooled polls for Slovakian parties PS SaS Demokrati

A chart with pooled polls for Slovakian parties PS KDH

A chart with pooled polls for Slovakian parties OLaNO (now Hnutie Slovensko) and Demokrati

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 13d

Over the past couple months:

Hlas's support has been probing for a new bottom and SNS has been below the 5% entry threshold.

Republika (ESN) has been matching their highest estimates yet, from the 2023 election campaign. Back then, the numbers failed to materialize on election day.

3/n

A chart of pooled polls for Slovakian parties Smer Republika SNS

A chart of pooled polls for Slovakian parties Hlas Szovetseg and Sme rodina

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 13d

Mid-September estimates by Ipsos find Smer+Hlas at their lowest, and PS (RE) + SaS (ECR) + D (EPP) at their highest numbers in Ipsos polling.

2/n

A chart of pooled polls in Slovakia showing two aggregates
1 PS + SaS D
2 Smer + Hlas

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 13d

September polls find Mr Fico's gov't coalition roughly on the downward trend that started around the time of the assassination attempt against him.

The trend is downwards even with the growing far-right Republika added to the govt's numbers.

1/n

A chart showing pooled polls in Slovakia for:
1 Smer+Hlas+SNS+Republika
2 Smer+Hlas+SNS
3 Smer+SNS+Republika
4 Smer+Hlas

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 15d

The global retrenchment of academic freedom, as estimated by V-Dem and FAU:

2008-2015: mostly at the lower part of the scale
2015-2024: the upper part of the scale moves as well

More by FAU at: academic-freedom-index.net

@vdeminstitute.bsky.social

A chart showing a summary of the Academic Freedom Index in 2008, 2015, and 2024.

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 17d

“If we want [front-end] things to stay as they are, [back-end] things will have to change.”

partial back view of

Nam June Paik, Zen for TV, 1963, 1976 version, manipulated television set; black and white, silent, 19 x 22 1/2 x 18 in. (48.3 x 57.2 x 45.7 cm), Smithsonian American Art Museum, Gift of Byungseol and Dolores An, 2006.20,

it shows that some of the original internals of the TV have been replaced

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 17d

L'origine, or Pay no attention to the stack behind the interface.

A photo of a cabinet with some of the devices from the back end of

Nam June Paik, Electronic Superhighway: Continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, 1995, fifty-one channel video installation (including one closed-circuit television feed), custom electronics, neon lighting, steel and wood; color, sound, approx. 15 x 40 x 4 ft., Smithsonian American Art Museum, Gift of the artist, 2002.23

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 17d

Of front end and back end.

A side view of

Nam June Paik, Electronic Superhighway: Continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, 1995, fifty-one channel video installation (including one closed-circuit television feed), custom electronics, neon lighting, steel and wood; color, sound, approx. 15 x 40 x 4 ft., Smithsonian American Art Museum, Gift of the artist, 2002.23,

See https://americanart.si.edu/artwork/electronic-superhighway-continental-us-alaska-hawaii-71478

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 21d

R package updates that break backward compatibility as a defense against LLM-based coding assistants?

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 28d

Rotated 90° anti-clockwise and flipped horizontally, the flag of Slovakia's Žilina region becomes a political compass with the authoritarian half stretched. This loosely reflects the fact that that half is more densely occupied by Slovakia's citizens.

The transformed flag | Survey estimates by NMS.

Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 28d

A few charts on Nepal

About 1 in 2 Nepalese are 26 or younger, 1 in 3 are below 18, per the UN WPP estimates.

Electoral democracy strengthened considerably over the past two decades, and mobilization for democracy decreased from its early 2000s peak, per @vdeminstitute.bsky.social estimates.

A population chart of Nepal on 1 Jan 2025 based on the median estimates of the UN WPP 2024.

A chart with V-Dem estimates for Nepal, 1900-2024, showing the following indices:
Mobilization for Democracy
Mobilization for Autocracy
Electoral Democracy
Neopatrimonial Rule

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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 28d

Impressed that Gemini 2.5 Flash managed to match the eight flags of Slovakia's kraje to their names with zero successes. On a good day, even your humble poster would do better.

the flags of Slovakia's eight kraje organized into two columns of 4, labeled left-to-right top to bottom simply as a) b) c) ... h).

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