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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · 3h

Throughout the autumn & winter period I’ll aim to post a 3-part graphic that breaks down the key large scale drivers shaping our weather focusing on what they could mean for the next 2–4 weeks.

Time permitting, these will be posted every Wednesday.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · 1d

Winter 2025-2026 will see an easterly QBO + La Niña combo which statistically favours a major sudden stratospheric warming (and subsequent increased chance of cold weather)

92% of years sampled with this combination saw a major SSW vs 46% of years sampled with a wQBO + La Niña.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · 5d

Marked dry air intrusion into Storm Amy now (blue arrow) with a developing cloud head (red).

This has the potential to develop quite a powerful sting jet into the western isles of Scotland in the next few hours.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Sep 8

The Atlantic "cold blob" has been intensifying over the past couple of weeks due to the more changeable weather patterns.

This *could* in theory lead to more of a south shifted jet stream this winter, albeit it's also possible it'll lead to a wetter, milder winter as per 2014-2016.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 28

Saturday is shaping up to be a rather wet & breezy day as a deep low pressure system pushes into western areas.

The drought is officially coming to an end.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 28

Provisionally Summer 2025 will be the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 16.13°C.

This knocks 1976 out of the top 5 hottest summers on record. Whilst we haven’t seen as many days >30°C, night time temperatures have been much warmer.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 24

Last bank holiday before Christmas and the weather gods are smiling down on the UK.

Temperatures widely into the mid-high 20's across England and Wales, it'll even be fairly warm in Scotland 😊

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 18

Drought conditions across the UK are becoming extreme.

Even deeper levels within the soil are becoming extremely dry, particularly across England & Wales.

There remains no significant rainfall in the forecast.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 1

This is absolutely astonishing & historic.

Finland has recorded 20 consecutive days of temperatures >30°C. The previous record was 13 days in 1972.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Aug 1

It’s currently hotter in Lapland than it is across most of Europe with temperatures of 29°C.

29°C.
Lapland.

Rumour has it, Santa has taken off his big red coat.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 30

Yes.

And lows this deep are far more common in autumn..

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 29

Autumnal storm anyone?

The ECM significantly deepens this low early next week with gusts of >60-70MPH in places.

Most models keep this as a weaker feature but an unsettled start to the week seems likely.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 28

The Turkish meteorological office yesterday confirmed Turkeys new all time record of 50.5ºC set on the 25th July.

Insanely hot.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 26

BREAKING: New monthly and all time records have been set across southeastern Europe in the last couple of days.

The UK has been relatively lucky to escape extreme heat thus far.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 25

Turkey reached 50.0°C for the first time in recorded history today (preliminary)

This isn’t just a heatwave, It’s the edge of human survival. In low humidity just 30 minutes of exposure risks heat stroke. Increasing humidity shortens that time.

This is climate change, and it’s accelerating.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 25

BREAKING: Sirnak Silopi in Turkey has set a new temperature record after recording 50.0ºC this afternoon.

This is an extreme level of heat.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 24

This is crazy.

Storforshei, Norway has reached 30°C for 12 consecutive days.

To be clear, this is right on the edge of the Arctic circle. The extent & duration of this heatwave is nothing short of astonishing.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 22

The previous two record breaking years (2023 & 2024) were thought to be driven by El Nino but given how close we are to both of those years, I have my doubts.

If this year was an El Nino year, what would we be looking at right now? Crazy.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 22

This is astonishing.

Global sea surface temperatures are once again pushing close to record breaking temperatures despite the lack of El Nino.

This is largely driven by a very, very warm seas in the Pacific & around northwest Europe.

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Reposted by Met4Cast

Steve Hills @merse10.bsky.social · Jul 21

Southend.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 21

Haha, I only tend to reply to a few that seem human, the vast majority get blocked!

Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 21

TUE 22 JULY 25

Surface convergence will drive shower activity on Tuesday, primarily across eastern & southeastern counties.

Whilst the lightning risk is lower than Monday, a few sporadic strikes are possible.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 20

It’s been raining so naturally water companies across the country are discharging 💩 into rivers & seas.

🔴 Currently discharging
🟡 Recently discharged

It’s 2025 and this disgusting practice is still happening.

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 20

Stunning shelf cloud from the cell passing over Cheshire!

📷 Kev Birnie

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Met4Cast @met4cast.net · Jul 20

This is 2M air temperature so yeah, northern hemisphere summer + more land is the reason

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