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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis.bsky.social
3.2K followers 3.1K following 1.7K posts
Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. https://www.jkclimate.fr/
www.jkclimate.fr
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Reposted by John Kennedy
ruthmottram.bsky.social
Ruth Mottram @ruthmottram.bsky.social · 1d
🚨 New @oceaniceeu.bsky.social preprint🚨 why has Antarctica stopped (net) losing mass, in spite of increased discharge?
Declining sea ice is part of the answer but increasingly heavy and frequent atmospheric rivers are most important factor.

Lots of important subtleties:
arxiv.org/abs/2510.03590
Screenshot of figures from the paper: Above a graph showing wiggly lines depicting the cumulative mass budget of Antarctica: a dark line swoops and wiggles downwards before stabilising at the end, colourful dashed lines (depicting snow fall) wiggle along constantly before sloping upwards at the same tme stabilisation occurs. Below 6 maps of Antarctica in blues and red depicting the mass change in different basins.
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Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d
Open Ocean #10

In which I attempt maths and experience regret. But at least my mean ends up in about the right place.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/06/o...
Open Ocean #10
In which I attempt maths and experience regret.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 4
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d
Open Ocean #10

In which I attempt maths and experience regret. But at least my mean ends up in about the right place.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/06/o...
Open Ocean #10
In which I attempt maths and experience regret.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 4
Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Open Ocean #9

Lots of little things

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/05/o...
Open Ocean #9
Lots of little things
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 3
Reposted by John Kennedy
vargaslab.bsky.social
Rodrigo Vargas @vargaslab.bsky.social · 2d
⭐️Nominate an Impactful Dataset

@agu.org invites you to nominate an impactful dataset!

📊Submissions will be considered for inclusion in an upcoming featured commentary published in AGU Advances.

Submit nominations by 20 October.

docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

@agubiogeosciences.bsky.social
Nominate an Impactful Dataset
You are invited to nominate a dataset to be included in a commentary about the impact of Earth, space, and environmental data using the dimensions of people, planet, and prosperity. Selected submitter...
docs.google.com
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Open Ocean #9

Lots of little things

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/05/o...
Open Ocean #9
Lots of little things
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 3
Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
September global mean temperature is going to take a big leap from August it looks like. I looked at the mean of the daily averages from ERA5 and on an anomaly basis it's much warmer than August was and way above anything before the huge 2023 lurch.
Graph showing global mean temperature for Septembers from 1850 to 2025. Seven datasets are shown: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, two flavours of Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5.
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
I was supposed to drop the map of anomalies into this thread... It's quite warm in lots of places but there are some large anomalies over the NH.

bsky.app/profile/mice...
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
The anomalies locally look like this...

(from pulse.climate.copernicus.eu)
Map of surface air temperature anomales from ERA5 for September 2025. Red areas are warmer than the 1991-2020 average and blue areas are colder than it. There are four different logos along the bottom of the graph and one of them appears twice.
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
The anomalies locally look like this...

(from pulse.climate.copernicus.eu)
Map of surface air temperature anomales from ERA5 for September 2025. Red areas are warmer than the 1991-2020 average and blue areas are colder than it. There are four different logos along the bottom of the graph and one of them appears twice.
3
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
You can see the September bounce here too in a plot of all monthly averages. It will be interesting to see the final ERA5 figures.
Graph showing monthly global mean temperature from 2014 to September 2025. Seven datasets are shown: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, two flavours of Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5.
1
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
September global mean temperature is going to take a big leap from August it looks like. I looked at the mean of the daily averages from ERA5 and on an anomaly basis it's much warmer than August was and way above anything before the huge 2023 lurch.
Graph showing global mean temperature for Septembers from 1850 to 2025. Seven datasets are shown: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, two flavours of Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5.
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Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d
Open Ocean #8

Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/01/o...
Open Ocean #8
Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d
Open Ocean #8

Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/01/o...
Open Ocean #8
Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 5
Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 8d
Open Ocean #7

Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/o...
Open Ocean #7
Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
3 6
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 8d
Open Ocean #7

Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/o...
Open Ocean #7
Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
3 6
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 8d
Invincibly ignorant is a thing.
Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 9d
Open Ocean #6

Implementing a pattern-based reconstruction technique that works by – I swear – pure magic.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/28/o...
Open Ocean #6
Implementing a pattern-based reconstruction technique that works by – I swear – pure magic.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
3 5
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 9d
Open Ocean #6

Implementing a pattern-based reconstruction technique that works by – I swear – pure magic.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/28/o...
Open Ocean #6
Implementing a pattern-based reconstruction technique that works by – I swear – pure magic.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
3 5
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10d
Open Ocean #5

Interpolating anomalies in the simple gridder to produce globally complete fields.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/27/o...
Open Ocean #5
Interpolating anomalies in the simple gridder to produce globally complete fields.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
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Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12d
Open Ocean #4

In which I estimate sampling uncertainties for my simple gridder.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/26/o...
Open Ocean #4
In which I estimate sampling uncertainties for my simple gridder.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 4
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12d
Open Ocean #4

In which I estimate sampling uncertainties for my simple gridder.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/26/o...
Open Ocean #4
In which I estimate sampling uncertainties for my simple gridder.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 4
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13d
That’s *the* cropolis.
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Reposted by John Kennedy
micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14d
Open Ocean #3

Estimating ship-buoy biases with a simple gridder.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/o...
Open Ocean #3
Last time, I did some comparisons between HadSST4 (unadjusted data) and the output from the simple gridder. They were pretty close to each other. I ended up by showing that the number of occupied g…
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13d
There's another fault line: people who really look at their data and people who don't.
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14d
Open Ocean #3

Estimating ship-buoy biases with a simple gridder.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/o...
Open Ocean #3
Last time, I did some comparisons between HadSST4 (unadjusted data) and the output from the simple gridder. They were pretty close to each other. I ended up by showing that the number of occupied g…
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
2 2