Michael Morales
michael-morales.bsky.social
Michael Morales
@michael-morales.bsky.social
Basketball and NBA Salary Cap Enthusiast
UCLA School of Law J.D. 2023
CBA and Salary Cap Work: https://sites.google.com/view/mmorales-cba-work-portfolio/project-page?authuser=0
I took a look back at the last 5 seasons of NTPMLE data to see how exactly the usage has changed under the 2023 CBA, what’s caused these changes, and potential trends that players, agents and teams should be aware of.
drive.google.com/open?authuse...
Mid Level Exception Usage - 5 Year Trends
Introduction 2 Key Takeaways 2 What Did I Look at and Why? 2 What is the NTPMLE and How is it Used? 3 Who Had Access to the NTPMLE and How Much Did They Use? 3 Breakdown Between Categories 4 Second Ro...
drive.google.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Jakob Poeltl’s 3-year extension surprised many this Offseason. Instead of analyzing the extension on its merits, I wanted to analyze (i) why Toronto would be interested in extending him and (ii) what we might be able to glean from Toronto’s possible motives.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Jakob Poeltl Extension Analysis
Intro 2 Extension Details 2 Toronto’s Cap Situation 3 What Does This Move Tell Us? 3 Toronto Expects Poeltl to be an Above Average Starter for 3-4 Years 3 Toronto is Prioritizing Space Below the First...
docs.google.com
August 12, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Deandre Ayton’s buyout was one of the more surprising developments of the offseason. Here I take a look at the financial ramifications of his buyout and touch on what Portland’s inability to trade him can tell us about how teams are valuing First Apron space.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Ayton Buyout Considerations
Introduction 2 Background 2 Evaluating the Financial Impact of Ayton’s Decision 2 Limiting his Upside? 3 Do the Lakers Mitigate this Risk? 4 Limiting his Downside 4 Stretched Payments 5 What to Take A...
docs.google.com
July 25, 2025 at 9:44 PM
After analyzing Ty Jerome's market and concluding there's a real possibility Cleveland won't bring him back, I wanted to analyze the CBA provisions that make sign and trades difficult for teams above the second apron and how Cleveland might maneuver those obstacles.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Too Expensive to Make a Trade
Intro 2 Background 2 Key CBA Provisions 2 How can Cleveland Absorb Salary? 3 Aggregating Multiple Players 3 Using Georges Niang $8.5 Million trade exception (UNAVAILABLE) 3 Draft Picks 3 Ideal Trade P...
docs.google.com
June 19, 2025 at 5:24 AM
I analyzed whether it makes sense for Milwaukee and Pat Connaughton to use an extension as a pseudo “stretch”, where Connaughton actually gets a slight bump in Salary and Milwaukee creates optionality.
drive.google.com/open?authuse...
Using an Extension as a Pseudo Stretch
Intro 2 Key Points 2 What Can a Team Do with a Negative Value Player Option? 2 Key changes to the 2023 CBA 3 The Pat Connaughton Case Study 3 Does this work for Milwaukee? 3 Does this work for Connaug...
drive.google.com
March 31, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Now that the trade deadline frenzy has passed, I wanted to take a look at the possible extension candidates for this Salary Cap Year - specifically at candidates to extend under the Extend and Trade Limitations.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Extensions Subject to Extend and Trade Limitations
Intro 2 Key Takeaways 2 Extensions Generally 2 Extend and Trade Limitations 3 2025 Offseason Outlook 3 Extension Candidates 4 The Backup Centers 4 Larry Nance 5 Steven Adams 5 Bobby Portis 6 The Sub-A...
docs.google.com
March 3, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Listening to NFL Offseason podcasts and hearing how prevalent Incentives are in the NFL inspired me to look at how NBA teams use Incentives. This led me to the conclusion that NBA teams are underutilizing Contingent Guaranteed Salary as a performance incentive.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Incentivizing Performance via Contingent Salary Guaranties
Introduction 2 Key Takeaways 2 Incentive Compensation 2 What is Incentive Compensation? 2 Incentive Compensation Impact on Team Salary 3 Limits on Incentive Compensation Usage 4 How is Incentive Compe...
docs.google.com
February 11, 2025 at 10:24 PM
I wanted to create charts that simplify the process of complying with CBA rules regarding player acquisition. I think this could be particularly helpful during the trade deadline, as teams must comply with minimum roster requirements in the midst of player movement.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Roster Building Cheat Sheets
These charts are intended to serve as guides in the roster building process, providing an easy way to ensure that all CBA rules regarding roster size and player acquisition are satisfied. Roster Size...
docs.google.com
February 11, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I looked into the process of signing NBA draft picks and where teams can find "pockets" of cap space, particularly with respect to the Apron.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Finding space in the draft process
Intro 2 Key Takeaways 2 Required Tender 2 First Round Pick Considerations 3 Navigating the Apron 3 Creating Cap Space 4 Operating as a Room Team or a Cap Team? 4 Second Round Pick Considerations 5 Sec...
docs.google.com
February 11, 2025 at 9:40 PM