Scores are lower than last year, and the mix of mentions (colors) very different. Not sure what to make of that.
January 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Scores are lower than last year, and the mix of mentions (colors) very different. Not sure what to make of that.
I'm glad that I played my part when I could...
January 9, 2026 at 12:49 AM
I'm glad that I played my part when I could...
I will see what I have. This was a long time ago 🤣
January 5, 2026 at 10:49 PM
I will see what I have. This was a long time ago 🤣
The 3 am warning woke me up and kept me up thinking about the leak in the basement...
December 25, 2025 at 7:57 PM
The 3 am warning woke me up and kept me up thinking about the leak in the basement...
I am sure this is true but not what I want to know. What I need to know is how the risk changes for fires while parked. I would presume that parked gas cars don't ignite but parked e-cars might when charging. We sleep over our car, so fear of house fire keeps me from buying one.
December 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM
I am sure this is true but not what I want to know. What I need to know is how the risk changes for fires while parked. I would presume that parked gas cars don't ignite but parked e-cars might when charging. We sleep over our car, so fear of house fire keeps me from buying one.
The companion paper doi.org/10.1038/s414...
Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases - Nature Communications
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fu...
doi.org
December 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The companion paper doi.org/10.1038/s414...
In our recent analysis we find the influence of ENSO on seasonal mean and extreme precipitation is far less than previous estimates with about 10% of the variance explained by natural forcings. link.springer.com/article/10.1... In a companion paper, we examine the anthropogenic role. It is larger.
link.springer.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM
In our recent analysis we find the influence of ENSO on seasonal mean and extreme precipitation is far less than previous estimates with about 10% of the variance explained by natural forcings. link.springer.com/article/10.1... In a companion paper, we examine the anthropogenic role. It is larger.
Indeed. Thanks for highlighting this fact. I explained some of the nuance behind this at the 2017 AGU session on the 4th US Climate Assessment at around 4:30 in this video www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwVI...
Detection & Attribution of the human influence on climate: 4th US National Climate Assessment Report
YouTube video by Michael Wehner
www.youtube.com
December 10, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Indeed. Thanks for highlighting this fact. I explained some of the nuance behind this at the 2017 AGU session on the 4th US Climate Assessment at around 4:30 in this video www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwVI...
Physics in scream is already GPU. ERF is probably more efficient but not ready for prime time
November 27, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Physics in scream is already GPU. ERF is probably more efficient but not ready for prime time
The new models, SCREAM and ERF, run well on GPUs. See doi.org/10.1029/2025... for some recent work.
Simulating Hurricane Katrina in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1
Hurricane Katrina hindcasts are evaluated for the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model SCREAMv1 at 3.25 km simulated a rea...
doi.org
November 27, 2025 at 10:27 AM
The new models, SCREAM and ERF, run well on GPUs. See doi.org/10.1029/2025... for some recent work.
2 of 2: And this paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change
Future ocean warming in eastern tropical Pacific will enhance US hurricane risk through changes in steering flow and wind shear.
www.science.org
November 20, 2025 at 9:13 PM
2 of 2: And this paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
1 of 2: Not surprising considering this paper: doi.org/10.1029/2023...
A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates have increased in near coastal regions over the 42-year period 1979-2020
Increases in relative humidity along with decreases in vertical wind shear are...
doi.org
November 20, 2025 at 9:12 PM
1 of 2: Not surprising considering this paper: doi.org/10.1029/2023...
But no climate model calculations to assess whether it actually works or what the unintended consequences are.
November 11, 2025 at 6:29 PM
But no climate model calculations to assess whether it actually works or what the unintended consequences are.
"while econometric methods remain valuable for identifying current sensitivities to climate variability, they may be less reliable for long-term projection." But they provide insight, and can guide policy, even if not market investments. Wish I could be there...
November 11, 2025 at 12:22 AM
"while econometric methods remain valuable for identifying current sensitivities to climate variability, they may be less reliable for long-term projection." But they provide insight, and can guide policy, even if not market investments. Wish I could be there...
7. "SRM could exacerbate rather than ameliorate some regional changes in climate..." Seems like an understatement to me. All schemes that I examined produced seasonal drought somewhere, especially in the south. And bulk tropical cyclone metrics are highly uncertain. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations - Frontiers of Earth Science
Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation managem...
link.springer.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:04 AM
7. "SRM could exacerbate rather than ameliorate some regional changes in climate..." Seems like an understatement to me. All schemes that I examined produced seasonal drought somewhere, especially in the south. And bulk tropical cyclone metrics are highly uncertain. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
We discussed this a bit in our original article. Most would recognize that the SS scale is a poor warning system as it is only wind based and most deaths are due to either fresh or salt water. NHC maps/summaries are infinitely better warnings. See our last paragraph. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world | PNAS
Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the
thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs...
www.pnas.org
November 3, 2025 at 5:05 AM
We discussed this a bit in our original article. Most would recognize that the SS scale is a poor warning system as it is only wind based and most deaths are due to either fresh or salt water. NHC maps/summaries are infinitely better warnings. See our last paragraph. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
2of2 But just a discussion of cat6 raises awareness that storms are now worse than ever because of AGW. Which was the intent of our article. And for that it has served our purpose. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world | PNAS
Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the
thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs...
www.pnas.org
November 1, 2025 at 6:05 PM
2of2 But just a discussion of cat6 raises awareness that storms are now worse than ever because of AGW. Which was the intent of our article. And for that it has served our purpose. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
1of2 My thinking hasn't changed much since Jim Kossin & wrote the PNAS article. The SS scale is very inadequate for communicating imminent danger. But it is not (probably never) going away. A single number can't convey this & we encourage folks to use NHC maps instead or listen to local TV weather.
November 1, 2025 at 6:02 PM
1of2 My thinking hasn't changed much since Jim Kossin & wrote the PNAS article. The SS scale is very inadequate for communicating imminent danger. But it is not (probably never) going away. A single number can't convey this & we encourage folks to use NHC maps instead or listen to local TV weather.
I have been to both many times. Some rooms at EGU can be a lot smaller, so if there is a session you really want to go to, I advise going early to get a seat.
October 23, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I have been to both many times. Some rooms at EGU can be a lot smaller, so if there is a session you really want to go to, I advise going early to get a seat.
It would be interesting to calculate the partitioning of cooling by upwelling compared to energy converted to storm energy.
August 27, 2025 at 1:21 AM
It would be interesting to calculate the partitioning of cooling by upwelling compared to energy converted to storm energy.